IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/107197.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Europe: Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Weak Exogeneity

Author

Listed:
  • Chupryhin, Radzivon

Abstract

This paper derives the robust determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Europe under model uncertainty and weak exogeneity issues. For this reason, Bayesian Averaging of Limited Information Maximum Likelihood Estimates (BALIMLE) approach was utilized. The chosen methodology allows for the estimation of a dynamic panel model with fixed effects. Also, the jointness measures were computed. The considered sample includes bilateral FDI flows between 36 European countries over the 2004 – 2017 period. The empirical evidence shows the importance of the endowment theory and the significance of output per worker and labor force variables in explaining the FDI flows. A market size theory was proposed to be augmented with a relative growth hypothesis. The calculated jointness measures indicated the complementary nature of considered regressors and theories.

Suggested Citation

  • Chupryhin, Radzivon, 2021. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Europe: Bayesian Model Averaging in the Presence of Weak Exogeneity," MPRA Paper 107197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107197
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/107197/1/MPRA_paper_107197.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James R. Markusen, 2004. "Multinational Firms and the Theory of International Trade," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262633078, December.
    2. Winford H. Masanjala & Chris Papageorgiou, 2008. "Rough and lonely road to prosperity: a reexamination of the sources of growth in Africa using Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 671-682.
    3. Yuko Kinoshita & Nauro F. Campos, 2003. "Why Does Fdi Go Where it Goes? New Evidence From the Transition Economies," IMF Working Papers 2003/228, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    5. Imad A. Moosa, 2002. "Theories of Foreign Direct Investment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 2, pages 23-67, Palgrave Macmillan.
    6. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Firm-Specific Assets and the Link Between Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 3, pages 89-120, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. de Mooij, Ruud A & Ederveen, Sjef, 2003. "Taxation and Foreign Direct Investment: A Synthesis of Empirical Research," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 10(6), pages 673-693, November.
    8. Assaf Razin & Yona Rubinstein & Efraim Sadka, 2003. "Which Countries Export FDI, and How Much?," NBER Working Papers 10145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Binder, Michael & Hsiao, Cheng & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2005. "Estimation And Inference In Short Panel Vector Autoregressions With Unit Roots And Cointegration," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 795-837, August.
    10. repec:bla:econom:v:38:y:1971:i:149:p:1-27 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Kenneth A. Froot & Jeremy C. Stein, 1991. "Exchange Rates and Foreign Direct Investment: An Imperfect Capital Markets Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(4), pages 1191-1217.
    12. Gernot Doppelhofer & Melvyn Weeks, 2009. "Jointness of growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 209-244, March.
    13. Hofmarcher, Paul & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2018. "Bivariate jointness measures in Bayesian Model Averaging: Solving the conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 150-165.
    14. John H. Dunning, 1977. "Trade, Location of Economic Activity and the MNE: A Search for an Eclectic Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Bertil Ohlin & Per-Ove Hesselborn & Per Magnus Wijkman (ed.), The International Allocation of Economic Activity, chapter 12, pages 395-418, Palgrave Macmillan.
    15. Jan Johanson & Jan-Erik Vahlne, 1977. "The Internationalization Process of the Firm—A Model of Knowledge Development and Increasing Foreign Market Commitments," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 8(1), pages 23-32, March.
    16. Theo S. Eicher & Chris Papageorgiou & Adrian E. Raftery, 2011. "Default priors and predictive performance in Bayesian model averaging, with application to growth determinants," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 30-55, January/F.
    17. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2012. "Determinants of Economic Growth: A Bayesian Panel Data Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(2), pages 566-579, May.
    18. Enrique Moral-Benito, 2013. "Likelihood-Based Estimation of Dynamic Panels With Predetermined Regressors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 451-472, October.
    19. Scholes, Myron S & Wolfson, Mark A, 1990. "The Effects of Changes in Tax Laws on Corporate Reorganization Activity," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 141-164, January.
    20. Fernandez, Carmen & Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F. J., 2001. "Benchmark priors for Bayesian model averaging," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 381-427, February.
    21. Russ, Katheryn Niles, 2007. "The endogeneity of the exchange rate as a determinant of FDI: A model of entry and multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 344-372, April.
    22. Jiangyan Yu & Mr. James P Walsh, 2010. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: A Sectoral and Institutional Approach," IMF Working Papers 2010/187, International Monetary Fund.
    23. Kojima, Kiyoshi, 1973. "A Macroeconomic Approach to Foreign Direct Investment," Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, Hitotsubashi University, vol. 14(1), pages 1-21, June.
    24. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    25. K. C. Fung & Alicia Garcia‐Herrero & Hitomi Iizaka & Alan Siu, 2005. "Hard Or Soft? Institutional Reforms And Infrastructure Spending As Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment In China," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 408-416, December.
    26. Mr. Alin T Mirestean & Mr. Charalambos G Tsangarides & Huigang Chen, 2009. "Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging for Dynamic Panels with Short Time Periods," IMF Working Papers 2009/074, International Monetary Fund.
    27. Salike, Nimesh, 2010. "Effect of regional integration agreement on foreign direct investment : A theoretical perspective," MPRA Paper 31859, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Bruce A. Blonigen, 2019. "Tariff-Jumping Antidumping Duties," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 5, pages 179-203, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    29. Shawna O'Grady & Henry W Lane, 1996. "The Psychic Distance Paradox," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 27(2), pages 309-333, June.
    30. Blomstrom, Magnus & Kokko, Ari, 1997. "How foreign investment affects host countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1745, The World Bank.
    31. Jeannie Yih Yun Yang & Nicolaas Groenewold & Moonjoong Tcha, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Australia," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(232), pages 45-54, March.
    32. Ley, Eduardo & Steel, Mark F.J., 2007. "Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 476-493, September.
    33. Dunning, John H, 1979. "Explaining Changing Patterns of International Production: In Defence of the Eclectic Theory," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 41(4), pages 269-295, November.
    34. Imad A. Moosa, 2002. "Foreign Direct Investment," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-1-4039-0749-3.
    35. Élisé Wendlassida Miningou & Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2020. "Education systems and foreign direct investment: does external efficiency matter?," Journal of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(1), pages 583-599, January.
    36. Bruce A. Blonigen & Jeremy Piger, 2019. "Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foreign Direct Investment, chapter 1, pages 3-54, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    37. Peter J. Buckley & Mark Casson, 1991. "The Future of the Multinational Enterprise," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, edition 0, number 978-1-349-21204-0.
    38. Hykmete Bajrami & Nazmi Zeqiri, 2019. "Theories of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and the Significance of Human Capital," International Journal of Business and Management, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 11-24, May.
    39. G. D. A. MacDougall, 1960. "THE BENEFITS and COSTS OF PRIVATE INVESTMENT FROM ABROAD: A THEORETICAL APPROACH," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 13-35, March.
    40. Enrique Moral‐Benito, 2016. "Growth Empirics in Panel Data Under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 584-602, April.
    41. Alfredo Jiménez & David Fuente, 2016. "Learning from Others: the Impact of Vicarious Experience on the Psychic Distance and FDI Relationship," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 56(5), pages 633-664, October.
    42. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Gabriele Tondl, 2015. "Robust determinants of OECD FDI in developing countries: Insights from Bayesian model averaging," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1095851-109, December.
    43. Dinkar Nayak & Rahul N. Choudhury, 2014. "A selective review of foreign direct investment theories," ARTNeT Working Papers 143, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    44. Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), 2005. "Handbook of Economic Growth," Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    45. Hadjila Krifa-Schneider & Iuliana Matei, 2010. "Business Climate, Political Risk and FDI in Developing Countries: Evidence from Panel Data," Post-Print halshs-00535798, HAL.
    46. Schneider, Friedrich & Frey, Bruno S., 1985. "Economic and political determinants of foreign direct investment," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 161-175, February.
    47. Hoffmann, Anders N., 2003. "Education, trade and investment liberalizations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 433-453, August.
    48. Lilia Cavallari & Stefano d'Addona, 2013. "Nominal and real volatility as determinants of FDI," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(18), pages 2603-2610, June.
    49. Hsiao, Cheng & Hashem Pesaran, M. & Kamil Tahmiscioglu, A., 2002. "Maximum likelihood estimation of fixed effects dynamic panel data models covering short time periods," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 107-150, July.
    50. Jamuna Agarwal, 1980. "Determinants of foreign direct investment: A survey," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 116(4), pages 739-773, December.
    51. Alan M Rugman, 1976. "Risk Reduction by International Diversification," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 7(2), pages 75-80, June.
    52. Amarendra Sharma & Oscar Cardenas, 2018. "The Labor Market Effects of FDI: A Panel Data Evidence from Mexico," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(4), pages 572-588, October.
    53. John H. Dunning, 2000. "Globalization and the Theory of MNE Activity," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Neil Hood & Stephen Young (ed.), The Globalization of Multinational Enterprise Activity and Economic Development, chapter 2, pages 21-52, Palgrave Macmillan.
    54. Laura Resmini, 2000. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in the CEECs: New evidence from sectoral patterns," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 8(3), pages 665-689, November.
    55. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Poelhekke, Steven, 2010. "Do Natural Resources Attract FDI? Evidence from Non-Stationary Sector-Level Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 8079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    56. Xavier Sala-I-Martin & Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller, 2004. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 813-835, September.
    57. Camarero, Mariam & Montolio, Laura & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 326-345.
    58. Poelhekke, Steven & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2010. "Do Natural Resources Attract FDI? Evidence from Non-Stationary Sector-Level Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 8079, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    59. Avik Chakrabarti, 2001. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investments: Sensitivity Analyses of Cross‐Country Regressions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(1), pages 89-114, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark F. J. Steel, 2020. "Model Averaging and Its Use in Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 58(3), pages 644-719, September.
    2. Isabel Faeth, 2009. "Determinants Of Foreign Direct Investment – A Tale Of Nine Theoretical Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(1), pages 165-196, February.
    3. Camarero, Mariam & Moliner, Sergi & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2021. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model Averaging," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    4. D'Andrea, Sara, 2022. "Are there any robust determinants of growth in Europe? A Bayesian Model Averaging approach," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 143-173.
    5. Fernando Mistura & Caroline Roulet, 2019. "The determinants of Foreign Direct Investment: Do statutory restrictions matter?," OECD Working Papers on International Investment 2019/01, OECD Publishing.
    6. León-González, Roberto & Montolio, Daniel, 2015. "Endogeneity and panel data in growth regressions: A Bayesian model averaging approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 23-39.
    7. Camarero, Mariam & Montolio, Laura & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2019. "What drives German foreign direct investment? New evidence using Bayesian statistical techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 326-345.
    8. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "Is there a euro effect in the drivers of US FDI? New evidence using Bayesian model averaging techniques," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(4), pages 881-926, November.
    9. Eicher, Theo S. & Helfman, Lindy & Lenkoski, Alex, 2012. "Robust FDI determinants: Bayesian Model Averaging in the presence of selection bias," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 637-651.
    10. Mariam Camarero & Sergi Moliner & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Japan's FDI drivers in a time of financial uncertainty. New evidence based on Bayesian Model," Working Papers 2007, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    11. Raphael Chiappini & François Viaud, 2021. "Macroeconomic, institutional, and sectoral determinants of outward foreign direct investment: Evidence from Japan," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 404-433, August.
    12. Xie, En & Reddy, K.S. & Liang, Jie, 2017. "Country-specific determinants of cross-border mergers and acquisitions: A comprehensive review and future research directions," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 127-183.
    13. Adeel Ahmad DAR & Taj MUHAMMAD & M. Wasif SIDDIQI, 2020. "Bureaucratic Quality and FDI Inflows Nexus: A South Asian Perspective," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 149-168, September.
    14. Prüfer, P. & Tondl, G., 2008. "The FDI-Growth Nexus in Latin America : The Role of Source Countries and Local Conditions," Other publications TiSEM 73b28850-1597-4bcb-a76c-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    15. Moral-Benito, Enrique, 2010. "Model averaging in economics," MPRA Paper 26047, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    17. John C. Anyanwu, 2012. "Why Does Foreign Direct Investment Go Where It Goes?: New Evidence From African Countries," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 13(2), pages 425-462, November.
    18. Manamba EPAPHRA & John MASSAWE, 2017. "The Effect of Corruption on Foreign Direct Investment: A Panel Data Study," Turkish Economic Review, KSP Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 19-54, March.
    19. Michael Jetter & Christopher F. Parmeter, 2016. "Uncovering the determinants of corruption," Working Papers 2016-02, University of Miami, Department of Economics.
    20. Hofmarcher, Paul & Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Grün, Bettina & Humer, Stefan & Moser, Mathias, 2018. "Bivariate jointness measures in Bayesian Model Averaging: Solving the conundrum," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 150-165.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian Model Averaging; FDI; Europe; model uncertainty; weakly exogenous regressors;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts
    • F66 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Labor
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:107197. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.