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Secular Fertility Declines Hinder Long-Run Economic Growth

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  • Huang, Kaixing

Abstract

Declining fertility is among the most salient features of global demography. By examining the lagged effects of fertility on the economic growth of 164 countries over the last half-century, this study found that the effect of a fertility decline lasts for more than three decades and that the long-run average effect is strongly negative for most countries. This finding was confirmed by using the plausibly exogenous fertility declines from the global family planning campaign since the mid-1960s. Within-country evidence from China’s one-child policy also confirmed this finding. Therefore, secular fertility declines represent a strong force driving down global economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Huang, Kaixing, 2018. "Secular Fertility Declines Hinder Long-Run Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 106977, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Apr 2021.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:106977
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secular fertility declines; economic growth; birth control;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General

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