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Indeterminate Equilibria in New Keynesian DSGE Model: An Application to the US Great Moderation

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  • Erdemlioglu, Deniz M
  • Xiao, Wei

Abstract

This paper tests “Bad Policy” Hypothesis which refers to the Great Moderation in the US. We examine this hypothesis by simulating model based impulse response functions for the both pre-Volcker period and post 1982 period. Deriving and simulating standard New Keynesian DSGE Model explicitly, we find that while post 1982 policy i.e. active policy, is consistent with the unique stable equilibrium characteristics; pre-Volcker or passive monetary policy generates equilibrium indeterminacy. Moreover, our simulated-impulse response functions show that the response of inflation and the output gap in post 82 period is weaker than the macroeconomic responses of the pre-Volcker period.

Suggested Citation

  • Erdemlioglu, Deniz M & Xiao, Wei, 2008. "Indeterminate Equilibria in New Keynesian DSGE Model: An Application to the US Great Moderation," MPRA Paper 10322, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10322
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Benati, Luca & Surico, Paolo, 2007. "Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation," Discussion Papers 18, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    2. Thomas A. Lubik & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Testing for Indeterminacy: An Application to U.S. Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 190-217, March.
    3. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2009. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 26-57, January.
    4. Milani, Fabio, 2008. "Learning, monetary policy rules, and macroeconomic stability," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 3148-3165, October.
    5. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2010. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 183-205, July.
    6. Luca Gambetti & Evi Pappa & Fabio Canova, 2008. "The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(2-3), pages 369-388, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    The Great Moderation; Indeterminacy; Determinate Equilibrium; New Keynesian DSGE Model; Monetary Policy; Sunspot shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E0 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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