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On the sources of macroeconomic stability in the euro area

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  • S. Avouyi-Dovi
  • J-G. Sahuc

Abstract

In the mid-1990s the euro area experienced a change in macroeconomic volatility. Around the same time, at business cycle frequencies the correlation between inflation and money growth changed markedly, turning from positive to negative. Distinguishing the periods pre- and post-1994, we estimate a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with money for the euro area. The model accounts for the salient facts. We then perform several counterfactual exercises to assess the drivers of these phenomena. The moderation of real variables was essentially due to relatively smaller shocks to investment, wage markups and preferences. The apparent lack of evidence for the quantity theory of money in the short run and the changes in the volatility of nominal variables resulted primarily from a more anti-inflationary and gradual monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • S. Avouyi-Dovi & J-G. Sahuc, 2015. "On the sources of macroeconomic stability in the euro area," Working papers 577, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:577
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    3. Bruna Santos & Leonardo Costa & Francisca Guedes de Oliveira, 2024. "The Euro Area 12: A Comparative Assessment of Its Member States in the Period 1998–2022," Economies, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-22, April.
    4. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jančoková, Martina, 2020. "Financial globalisation, monetary policy spillovers and macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Macroeconomic volatility; quantity theory of money; monetary policy; DSGE model; euro area.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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