IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/101525.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Role of Asymmetry and Uncertainties in the Capital Flows-Economic Growth Nexus

Author

Listed:
  • Raheem, Ibrahim
  • le Roux, Sara
  • Asongu, Simplice

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetry between capital flows and economic growth in 42 countries for the period 1990-2017. It further argues that uncertainty is an important channel through which asymmetry operates. As such, the three measures of uncertainty are macroeconomic, fiscal and institutional. The Generalised Method of Moments is used as an empirical strategy. The existence of an asymmetry is confirmed by the findings as capital flows are more reactive to economic drag when compared to economic growth. Furthermore, the channels through which asymmetry operate are heterogeneous to measures of capital flows and proxies for uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Raheem, Ibrahim & le Roux, Sara & Asongu, Simplice, 2019. "The Role of Asymmetry and Uncertainties in the Capital Flows-Economic Growth Nexus," MPRA Paper 101525, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101525
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/101525/1/MPRA_paper_101525.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan & Matthieu Soupre, 2016. "Understanding the sources of macroeconomic uncertainty," Economics Working Papers 1531, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2018.
    2. Davide Furceri & Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2012. "Medium-Term Determinants Of International Investment Positions: The Role Of Structural Policies," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 3(02), pages 1-32.
    3. Asongu, Simplice A. & Nwachukwu, Jacinta C., 2016. "The Mobile Phone in the Diffusion of Knowledge for Institutional Quality in Sub-Saharan Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 133-147.
    4. Alberola, Enrique & Erce, Aitor & Serena, José Maria, 2016. "International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 151-171.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
    6. Gente, Karine & León-Ledesma, Miguel A. & Nourry, Carine, 2015. "External constraints and endogenous growth: Why didn't some countries benefit from capital flows?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 223-249.
    7. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
    8. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2014. "Sovereigns, Upstream Capital Flows, And Global Imbalances," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 12(5), pages 1240-1284, October.
    9. Laura Alfaro & Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Vadym Volosovych, 2007. "Capital Flows in a Globalized World: The Role of Policies and Institutions," NBER Chapters, in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices, and Consequences, pages 19-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R. & Lundblad, Christian, 2005. "Does financial liberalization spur growth?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 3-55, July.
    11. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2012. "Capital flows, push versus pull factors and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-356.
    12. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    13. Schmidt, Torsten & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Uncertainty and episodes of extreme capital flows in the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 343-356.
    14. Vanessa S. Tchamyou & Simplice A. Asongu, 2017. "Information Sharing and Financial Sector Development in Africa," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 24-49, January.
    15. David Roodman, 2009. "How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 9(1), pages 86-136, March.
    16. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    17. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Olivier Jeanne, 2013. "Capital Flows to Developing Countries: The Allocation Puzzle," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1484-1515.
    18. Tchamyou, Vanessa S. & Erreygers, Guido & Cassimon, Danny, 2019. "Inequality, ICT and financial access in Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 169-184.
    19. Benhima, Kenza, 2013. "A reappraisal of the allocation puzzle through the portfolio approach," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2), pages 331-346.
    20. Broner, Fernando & Didier, Tatiana & Erce, Aitor & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2013. "Gross capital flows: Dynamics and crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 113-133.
    21. Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
    22. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    23. Asongu, Simplice A. & Nwachukwu, Jacinta C., 2016. "The role of governance in mobile phones for inclusive human development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Technovation, Elsevier, vol. 55, pages 1-13.
    24. K. Bello Ajide & Ibrahim Dolapo Raheem, 2016. "The Institutional Quality Impact on Remittances in the ECOWAS Sub†Region," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 28(4), pages 462-481, December.
    25. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    26. K. Bello Ajide & Ibrahim Dolapo Raheem, 2016. "Institutions-FDI Nexus in ECOWAS Countries," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(3), pages 319-341, September.
    27. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    28. Reinhardt, Dennis & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Tressel, Thierry, 2013. "International capital flows and development: Financial openness matters," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 235-251.
    29. Mr. Ayhan Kose & Mr. Kenneth Rogoff & Mr. Eswar S Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003. "Effects of Financial Globalization on Developing Countries: Some Empirical Evidence," IMF Occasional Papers 2003/007, International Monetary Fund.
    30. Gian-Maria Milesi-Ferretti & Cédric Tille, 2011. "The great retrenchment: international capital flows during the global financial crisis [‘The great trade collapse: what caused it and what does it mean?’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 289-346.
    31. Barry Eichengreen & Poonam Gupta & Oliver Masetti, 2018. "Are Capital Flows Fickle? Increasingly? And Does the Answer Still Depend on Type?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 17(1), pages 22-41, Winter/Sp.
    32. Aida Caldera Sánchez & Alain de Serres & Filippo Gori & Mikkel Hermansen & Oliver Röhn, 2017. "Strengthening economic resilience: Insights from the post-1970 record of severe recessions and financial crises," OECD Economic Policy Papers 20, OECD Publishing.
    33. Ayhan Kose, M. & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2009. "Does openness to international financial flows raise productivity growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 554-580, June.
    34. Efrem Castelnuovo & Guay Lim & Giovanni Pellegrino, 2017. "A Short Review of the Recent Literature on Uncertainty," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 50(1), pages 68-78, March.
    35. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    36. Ben Gamra, Saoussen, 2009. "Does financial liberalization matter for emerging East Asian economies growth? Some new evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 392-403, June.
    37. Bordo, Michael D. & Meissner, Christopher M. & Stuckler, David, 2010. "Foreign currency debt, financial crises and economic growth: A long-run view," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 642-665, June.
    38. Aizenman, Joshua & Marion, Nancy P. & Marion, Nancy P., 1993. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 207-210.
    39. repec:dau:papers:123456789/14524 is not listed on IDEAS
    40. Valentina Bruno & Hyun Song Shin, 2015. "Cross-Border Banking and Global Liquidity," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 82(2), pages 535-564.
    41. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2013. "Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 81-92.
    42. Chung‐Hua Shen & Chien‐Chiang Lee & Chi‐Chuan Lee, 2010. "What Makes International Capital Flows Promote Economic Growth? An International Cross‐Country Analysis," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 57(5), pages 515-546, November.
    43. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 38(1), pages 153-230.
    44. Gauvin, L. & McLoughlin, C. & Reinhardt, D., 2013. "Policy Uncertainty Spillovers to Emerging Markets - Evidence from Capital Flows," Working papers 435, Banque de France.
    45. Olivier Jeanne & Arvind Subramanian & John Williamson, 2012. "Who Needs to Open the Capital Account?," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 5119, April.
    46. Julio, Brandon & Yook, Youngsuk, 2016. "Policy uncertainty, irreversibility, and cross-border flows of capital," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 13-26.
    47. Paolo Mauro, 2007. "Do Some Forms of Financial Flows Help Protect Against "Sudden Stops"?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 21(3), pages 389-411, September.
    48. Erlend Nier & Tahsin Saadi Sedik & Tomas Mondino, 2014. "Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets: Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?," IMF Working Papers 2014/196, International Monetary Fund.
    49. Ahmed, Shaghil & Zlate, Andrei, 2014. "Capital flows to emerging market economies: A brave new world?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 221-248.
    50. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Augustine C. Odo & Nathaniel E. Urama & Joseph Chukwudi Odionye, 2024. "Volatile capital flows and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa: the role of transparency," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 1801-1827, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nataliia Osina, 2021. "Global governance and gross capital flows dynamics," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(3), pages 463-493, August.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Ciminelli, Gabriele & Furceri, Davide, 2023. "Is domestic uncertainty a local pull factor driving foreign capital inflows? New cross-country evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    3. Choi, Sangyup & Furceri, Davide, 2019. "Uncertainty and cross-border banking flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 260-274.
    4. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Governance, capital flight and industrialisation in Africa," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-22, December.
    5. Xichen Wang & Cheng Yan, 2022. "Does the Relative Importance of the Push and Pull Factors of Foreign Capital Flows Vary Across Quantiles?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 252-299, June.
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "Income Levels, Governance and Inclusive Human Development in Sub-Saharan Africa," Applied Research in Quality of Life, Springer;International Society for Quality-of-Life Studies, vol. 16(1), pages 71-103, February.
    7. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "Inclusive development in environmental sustainability in sub‐Saharan Africa: Insights from governance mechanisms," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(4), pages 713-724, July.
    8. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2021. "The role of inclusive education in governance for inclusive economic participation: gender evidence from sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 21/097, African Governance and Development Institute..
    9. Boonman, Tjeerd, 2023. "Have drivers of portfolio capital flows changed since the Global Financial Crisis?," MPRA Paper 116507, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Çepni, Oğuzhan & Gül, Selçuk & Hacıhasanoğlu, Yavuz Selim & Yılmaz, Muhammed Hasan, 2020. "Global uncertainties and portfolio flow dynamics of the BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    11. Asongu, Simplice & le Roux, Sara & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Pyke, Chris, 2018. "The Mobile Phone as an Argument for Good Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 89364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Asongu, Simplice A. & Nwachukwu, Jacinta C. & Orim, Stella-Maris I., 2018. "Mobile phones, institutional quality and entrepreneurship in Sub-Saharan Africa," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 183-203.
    13. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Finance, governance and inclusive education in Sub-Saharan Africa," Social Responsibility Journal, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 17(8), pages 1044-1061, July.
    14. Simplice A. Asongu & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2020. "Inequality thresholds, governance and gender economic inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 94-114, January.
    15. Kazeem B. Ajide & Olorunfemi Y. Alimi & Simplice A. Asongu, 2019. "Ethnic Diversity and Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Institutions Reduce the Noise?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 1033-1062, October.
    16. Belke, Ansgar & Volz, Ulrich, 2018. "Capital flows to emerging market and developing economies: global liquidity and uncertainty versus country-specific pull factors," IDOS Discussion Papers 23/2018, German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS).
    17. Igan, Deniz & Kutan, Ali M. & Mirzaei, Ali, 2020. "The real effects of capital inflows in emerging markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    18. Asongu, Simplice & Odhiambo, Nicholas, 2019. "Foreign Aid Complementarities and Inclusive Human Development in Africa," MPRA Paper 101086, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Asamoah, Michael Effah & Alagidede, Imhotep Paul, 2020. "Exploring the causal relationships and allocation puzzle between portfolio investments and real sector growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    20. Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2023. "Portfolio capital flows before and after the Global Financial Crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Capital flows; Economic growth; Asymmetry; Uncertainty and Emerging countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:101525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.