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Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty

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  • Rossi, Barbara
  • Sekhposyan, Tatevik
  • Soupré, Mattheiu

Abstract

We propose a decomposition to distinguish between Knightian uncertainty (ambiguity) and risk, where the first measures the uncertainty about the probability distribution generating the data, while the second measures uncertainty about the odds of the outcomes when the probability distribution is known. We use the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) density forecasts to quantify overall uncertainty as well as the evolution of the different components of uncertainty over time and investigate their importance for macroeconomic fluctuations. We also study the behavior and evolution of the various components of our decomposition in a model that features ambiguity and risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik & Soupré, Mattheiu, 2016. "Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 11415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:11415
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    as
    1. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik & Soupré, Mattheiu, 2016. "Understanding the Sources of Macroeconomic Uncertainty," CEPR Discussion Papers 11415, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Risk; Ambiguity; Knightian uncertainty; Survey of professional forecasters; Predictive densities;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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