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Causal Relations via Econometrics

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  • Zaman, Asad

Abstract

Applied econometric work takes a superficial approach to causality. Understanding economic affairs, making good policy decisions, and progress in the economic discipline depend on our ability to infer causal relations from data. We review the dominant approaches to causality in econometrics, and suggest why they fail to give good results. We feel the problem cannot be solved by traditional tools, and requires some out-of-the-box thinking. Potentially promising approaches to solutions are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Zaman, Asad, 2008. "Causal Relations via Econometrics," MPRA Paper 10128, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:10128
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    Cited by:

    1. Asad Zaman, 2012. "Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequences," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 4(2), pages 99-122, September.
    2. Asad Zaman, 2017. "Lessons in Econometric Methodology: The Axiom of Correct Specification," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 9(2), pages 50-68, September.
    3. Ingianni, Andrea, 2012. "Intra-European Union trade openness and new members’ output convergence: A time-series analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 2012-5, School of Economics, Kingston University London.
    4. Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011. "Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании [Technological and Institutional Effects Modeling in Macroeconomic Forecasting]," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
    5. Irina Alina Popescu & Paulo Jorge Reis Mourão, 2024. "Exploring the nexus between national innovation performance and happiness," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, December.
    6. S. Cem Karaman, 2015. "Effective Use of Foreign Debt, the Case for Turkey," International Journal of Social Science Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(2), pages 107-124, September.
    7. Zahid Asghar, 2011. "A Structural Approach for Testing Causality," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 3(2), pages 1-12, September.
    8. Asad Zaman & Taseer Salahuddin, 2020. "Models and Reality: How Did Models Divorced from Reality Become Epistemologically Acceptable?," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 12(1), pages 50-74, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    causality; regression; Granger Causality; Exogeneity; Cowles Commission; Hendry Methodology; Natural Experiments;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C59 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Other

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