IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/100013.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty in Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Choudhary, M. Ali
  • Pasha, Farooq
  • Waheed, Mohsin

Abstract

We develop an economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Pakistan in accordance with Baker, Bloom and Davis (2016) by extracting newspaper articles from Websites (i.e., Web-scraping) and we divided this into two indices. The main index, is based on four leading English-language Pakistan newspapers for the period of January 2015 to April 2020. To cover more historical ground, we also present a second index which uses two of the four newspapers and for which Web harvesting is plausible for a longer period of August 2010 to April 2020. The two indices are highly correlated thus they move in tandem and between them they capture events such as: the great floods of 2010; high terrorism activity; heightened exchange rate volatility; political turmoil; reshuffling of economic managers; the IMF program of 2019, and most recently the COVID-19 pandemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Choudhary, M. Ali & Pasha, Farooq & Waheed, Mohsin, 2020. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 100013, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100013
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/100013/1/MPRA_paper_100013.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hassett, Kevin A & Metcalf, Gilbert E, 1999. "Investment with Uncertain Tax Policy: Does Random Tax Policy Discourage Investment?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 372-393, July.
    2. Nicholas Bloom & Max Floetotto & Nir Jaimovich & Itay Saporta†Eksten & Stephen J. Terry, 2018. "Really Uncertain Business Cycles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(3), pages 1031-1065, May.
    3. Kevin A. Hassett, 1999. "Tax Policy and Investment," Books, American Enterprise Institute, number 53049, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aabid Karim & Heman Das Lohano, 2024. "Sentiment Analysis of State Bank of Pakistan's Monetary Policy Documents and its Impact on Stock Market," Papers 2408.03328, arXiv.org.
    2. Morão, Hugo, 2024. "An economic policy uncertainty index for Portugal," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Hammed A. Olayinka & Ahamuefula E. Ogbonna & Mamdouh Abdulaziz Saleh Al-Faryan & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2024. "Dynamic connectedness of economic policy uncertainty in G7 countries and the influence of the USA and UK on non-G7 countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 1-27, April.
    4. Jun Wen & Samia Khalid & Hamid Mahmood & Xiuyun Yang, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and growth nexus in Pakistan: a new evidence using NARDL model," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1701-1715, August.
    5. Ghani, Maria & Guo, Qiang & Ma, Feng & Li, Tao, 2022. "Forecasting Pakistan stock market volatility: Evidence from economic variables and the uncertainty index," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1180-1189.
    6. Tunio, Mohsin Waheed, 2022. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Industrial Activity: An Evidence from Pakistan," MPRA Paper 113544, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Fasih Ahmed & Muhammad Nawaz & Aisha Jadoon, 2022. "Topic Modeling of the Pakistani Economy in English Newspapers via Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA)," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    8. Zhang, Li & Hu, Shiwei, 2023. "Foreign uncertainty and domestic exporter dynamics," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    9. Tao, Hung-Lin & Cheng, Hui-Pei, 2023. "Economic policy uncertainty and subjective health: A gender perspective," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 334(C).
    10. Maria Ghani & Usman Ghani, 2024. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Emerging Stock Market Volatility," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(1), pages 165-181, March.
    11. Tabash, Mosab I. & Farooq, Umar & Ashfaq, Khurram & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and financing structure: A new panel data evidence from selected Asian economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    2. Hua Cheng & Kishore Gawande & Steven Ongena & Shusen Qi, 2020. "Get beyond policy uncertainty: Evidence from political connections," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-77, Swiss Finance Institute.
    3. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    4. Ozili, Peterson Kitakogelu, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty in banking: a literature review," MPRA Paper 108017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Shoag, Daniel & Veuger, Stan, 2016. "Uncertainty and the geography of the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 84-93.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Dominik Kronen, 2017. "The impact of uncertainty on macro variables - An SVAR-based empirical analysis for EU countries," ROME Working Papers 201708, ROME Network.
    7. Tara M. Sinclair & Zhoudan Xie, 2021. "Sentiment and Uncertainty about Regulation," Working Papers 2021-004, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    8. Hanno Dihle, 2015. "Real Options in a Ramsey style Growth Model," Discussion Paper Series 32, Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg, revised Dec 2015.
    9. Kronen Dominik & Belke Ansgar, 2017. "The Impact of Policy Uncertainty on Macro Variables – An SVAR-Based Empirical Analysis for EU Countries," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 68(2), pages 93-116, August.
    10. Donald Bruce & William Fox & Matthew Murray, 2003. "To Tax Or Not To Tax? The Case Of Electronic Commerce," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 21(1), pages 25-40, January.
    11. Linnerud, Kristin & Andersson, Ane Marte & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2014. "Investment timing under uncertain renewable energy policy: An empirical study of small hydropower projects," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 154-164.
    12. Richard W. Evans & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kerk L. Phillips, 2012. "Game Over: Simulating Unsustainable Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 177-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    14. Davig, Troy & Leeper, Eric M. & Walker, Todd B., 2010. ""Unfunded liabilities" and uncertain fiscal financing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 600-619, July.
    15. Klaus Wälde, 2003. "Endogenous Business Cycles and Growth," CESifo Working Paper Series 920, CESifo.
    16. Bree J. Lang & Pratish Patel, 2023. "Funding infrastructure under uncertainty: evidence from tax credit prices," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(3), pages 635-677, June.
    17. Klaus Wälde, 2005. "Endogenous Growth Cycles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 867-894, August.
    18. Jeffrey Clemens & Stan Veuger, 2017. "Risks To The Returns To Medical Innovation: The Case Of Myriad Genetics," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 35(2), pages 345-357, April.
    19. Györfy Lehel & Madaras Szilárd, 2019. "The Influence of Self-Employment on Early-Stage Entrepreneurship in Romania. A Global Entrepreneurship Monitor-Based Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 7(1), pages 23-35, December.
    20. Dibiasi, Andreas & Abberger, Klaus & Siegenthaler, Michael & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2018. "The effects of policy uncertainty on investment: Evidence from the unexpected acceptance of a far-reaching referendum in Switzerland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 38-67.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty Index; Developing Economy; Event Study;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • L50 - Industrial Organization - - Regulation and Industrial Policy - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:100013. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.