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Las vacas flacas en la economia peruana

Author

Listed:
  • Oscar Dancourt

    (Departamento de Economía de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

La tasa de crecimiento del PBI no primario cayó a un 3.6% en 2014 y a un 2.4% en 2015, cifras muy por debajo del 7.3% promedio anual registrado durante la década previa; para 2016, se proyecta que la economía urbana tendrá un crecimiento igualmente bajo del 2.8% anual. En la historia macroeconómica del Perú, las épocas de vacas gordas, es decir, los auges más o menos prolongados, son también épocas de precios altos de las materias primas que exportamos; y las épocas de vacas flacas, es decir, las recesiones más o menos intensas donde decrece la actividad económica, son épocas de precios bajos de estas materias primas. Este texto describe el choque externo adverso sufrido por la economía peruana y su impacto recesivo e inflacionario durante 2014-15; analiza las políticas monetarias y fiscales aplicadas en respuesta al choque externo, y concluye listando los retos macroeconómicos del nuevo gobierno de Pedro Pablo Kuczynski.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Dancourt, 2016. "Las vacas flacas en la economia peruana," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2016-428, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucwps:wp00428
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    File URL: http://repositorio.pucp.edu.pe/index/handle/123456789/126760
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    Cited by:

    1. Ganiko, Gustavo & Jiménez, Alvaro, 2023. "Choques externos en la economía peruana: un enfoque de ceros y signos en un modelo BVAR," Working Papers 2023-010, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Política monetaria; política fiscal; choques externos;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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