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When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path

Author

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  • Jan F. Qvigstad

    (Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway))

Abstract

Svensson (2004) suggested that a monetary policy committee of a central bank (MPC) should “find an instrument-rate path such that projections of inflation and output gap ‘look good’.” Academic literature on monetary policy gives guidance as to what the words “look good” means. However, there is a need for a translation of the theoretical framework into concrete criteria when an MPC shall evaluate interest rate paths in practice. Six criteria for an appropri-ate interest rate path are presented. In the November 2005 Inflation Report, Norges Bank presented for the first time an optimal interest rate path including a fan chart illustrating the uncertainty of the forecast using these criteria. Ex-amples used in explaining the criteria are drawn from Norwegian experiences.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan F. Qvigstad, 2006. "When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path," Working Paper 2006/05, Norges Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:bno:worpap:2006_05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2013-016 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Tillmann, Peter, 2012. "Cross-checking optimal monetary policy with information from the Taylor rule," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(1), pages 204-207.
    3. Woodford, Michael, 2013. "Forward Guidance by Inflation-Targeting Central Banks," CEPR Discussion Papers 9722, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "Monetary Policy Strategies for the Federal Reserve," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(1), pages 133-193, February.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2012. "Forecast Targeting as a Monetary Policy Strategy - Policy Rules in Practice," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 9, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2020. "What Rule for the Federal Reserve? Forecast Targeting," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(6), pages 39-95, December.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2012. "Evaluating Monetary Policy," Book Chapters, in: Evan F. Koenig & Robert Leeson & George A. Kahn (ed.), The Taylor Rule and the Transformation of Monetary Policy, chapter 11, Hoover Institution, Stanford University.
    8. Alessandro Flamini, 2012. "Interest Rate Forecasts in Inflation Targeting Open-Economies," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 381-408.
    9. Winkelmann, Lars, 2010. "The Norges Bank's key rate projections and the news element of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2010-062, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    10. Walsh, Carl E, 2014. "Multiple Objectives and Central Bank Tradeoffs Under Flexible Inflation Targeting," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3pq021t5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    11. Claudio E. V. Borio, 2006. "Monetary and prudential policies at a crossroads? New challenges in the new century," BIS Working Papers 216, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Julia Ratcliffe & Ross Kendall, 2019. "Monetary policy strategy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 82, pages 1-25, April.
    13. Winkelmann, Lars, 2013. "Quantitative forward guidance and the predictability of monetary policy: A wavelet based jump detection approach," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2013-016, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    14. Ábel, István & Siklos, Pierre L., 2007. "Mindentől függetlenül. A monetáris politika hatása a gazdasági ciklusra Magyarországon [Irrespective of everything. The effect of monetary policy on the economic cycle]," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 945-959.
    15. Jan Fredrik Qvigstad, 2019. "How to draft ‘good’ minutes of monetary policy decisions," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 44-64, February.
    16. Alex Isakov & Petr Grishin & Oleg Gorlinsky, 2018. "Fear of Forward Guidance," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 77(4), pages 84-106, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasts; flexible inflation targeting; optimal monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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