IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/16384.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?

Author

Listed:
  • Jordi Galí

Abstract

Central banks' projections-i.e. forecasts conditional on a given interest rate path-are often criticized on the grounds that their underlying policy assumptions are inconsistent with the existence of a unique equilibrium in many forward-looking models. Here I describe three alternative approaches to constructing projections that are not subject to the above criticism, using two different versions of New Keynesian model as reference frameworks. Most importantly, I show how the three approaches generate different projections for inflation and output, even though they imply an identical path for the interest rate. The latter result calls into question the meaning and usefulness of such projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Jordi Galí, 2010. "Are Central Banks' Projections Meaningful?," NBER Working Papers 16384, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16384
    Note: EFG ME
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16384.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Leeper, Eric M. & Zha, Tao, 2003. "Modest policy interventions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1673-1700, November.
    2. Bullard, James & Mitra, Kaushik, 2002. "Learning about monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1105-1129, September.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Benhabib, Jess & Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2001. "The Perils of Taylor Rules," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 96(1-2), pages 40-69, January.
    5. Michael Woodford, 2005. "Central bank communication and policy effectiveness," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 399-474.
    6. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    7. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-1311, July.
    8. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2005. "Bayesian New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) Models: Modern Tools for Central Banks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(2-3), pages 422-433, 04/05.
    9. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818742.
    10. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524117.
    11. Honkapohja, Seppo & Mitra, Kaushik, 2005. "Performance of inflation targeting based on constant interest rate projections," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(11), pages 1867-1892, November.
    12. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    13. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2006. "The Instrument-Rate Projection under Inflation Targeting: The Norwegian Example," Working Papers 75, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    14. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    15. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818735.
    16. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524124.
    17. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2006. "The Instrument-Rate Projection under Inflation Targeting: The Norwegian Example," Working Papers 75, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    18. Leitemo, Kai, 2003. "Targeting Inflation by Constant-Interest-Rate Forecasts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 609-626, August.
    19. repec:pri:cepsud:127svensson is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Jordi Galí, 2009. "Constant interest rate projections without the curse of indeterminacy: A note," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 61-68, March.
    21. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521818728.
    22. Dewatripont,Mathias & Hansen,Lars Peter & Turnovsky,Stephen J. (ed.), 2003. "Advances in Economics and Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521524131.
    23. Robert G. King & Alexander L. Wolman, 2013. "Inflation Targeting in a St. Louis Model of the 21st Century," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 543-574.
    24. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bing Tong & Guang Yang, 2020. "A Fixed-Interest-Rate New Keynesian Model of China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/1, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    2. Malte Knüppel & Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2017. "Interest rate assumptions and predictive accuracy of central bank forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 195-215, August.
    3. Blake, Andrew, 2012. "Fixed interest rates over finite horizons," Bank of England working papers 454, Bank of England.
    4. Monica Jain & Christopher S. Sutherland, 2020. "How Do Central Bank Projections and Forward Guidance Influence Private-Sector Forecasts?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(5), pages 179-218, October.
    5. Guido Schultefrankenfeld, 2020. "Appropriate monetary policy and forecast disagreement at the FOMC," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 223-255, January.
    6. Klaus Neusser, 2018. "The New Keynesian Model with Stochastically Varying Policies," Diskussionsschriften dp1801, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    7. Neusser, Klaus, 2019. "Time–varying rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Stefan Laséen & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2009. "Anticipated Alternative Instrument-Rate Paths in Policy Simulations," NBER Working Papers 14902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Bing Tong, 2020. "Capacity Reduction Policy Under the Interest Rate Peg in China," CFDS Discussion Paper Series 2020/2, Center for Financial Development and Stability at Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan, China.
    10. Rochelle M. Edge & Refet S. Gürkaynak, 2011. "How useful are estimated DSGE model forecasts?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    2. Jordi Gali & Pau Rabanal, 2004. "Technology Shocks and Aggregate Fluctuations: How Well Does the RBS Model Fit Postwar U.S. Data?," NBER Working Papers 10636, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Merkl, Christian & Snower, Dennis, 2009. "Monetary Persistence, Imperfect Competition, And Staggering Complementarities," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 81-106, February.
    4. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 661-698, June.
    5. Romina Bafile & Alessandro Piergallini, 2017. "Firms’ money demand and monetary policy," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 350-382, August.
    6. Philip Arestis & Georgios Chortareas & John D. Tsoukalas, 2010. "Money and Information in a New Neoclassical Synthesis Framework," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(542), pages 101-128, February.
    7. Karanassou, Marika & Sala, Hector & Snower, Dennis J., 2005. "A reappraisal of the inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-32, March.
    8. Axel A. Weber & Wolfgang Lemke & Andreas Worms, 2008. "How useful is the concept of the natural real rate of interest for monetary policy?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 32(1), pages 49-63, January.
    9. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Adaptive Learning and Monetary Policy: Lessons from Japan," Working Papers UWEC-2008-12-P, University of Washington, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2008.
    10. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2016. "Monetary Policy with Imperfect Knowledge in a Small Open Economy," PIER Discussion Papers 28., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised May 2016.
    11. Gali­, Jordi & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2008. "Optimal monetary and fiscal policy in a currency union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1), pages 116-132, September.
    12. Gerberding, Christina & Gerke, Rafael & Hammermann, Felix, 2012. "Price-level targeting when there is price-level drift," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 757-768.
    13. Francesco Molteni, 2015. "Liquidity, Government Bonds and Sovereign Debt Crises," Working Papers 2015-32, CEPII research center.
    14. Claudio Borio, 2011. "Rediscovering the Macroeconomic Roots of Financial Stability Policy: Journey, Challenges, and a Way Forward," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 87-117, December.
    15. Yu-chin Chen & Pisut Kulthanavit, 2008. "Monetary Policy Design under Imperfect Knowledge: An Open Economy Analysis," Working Papers UWEC-2008-14, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
    16. Frederick van der Ploeg, 2005. "Back to Keynes?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 51(4), pages 777-822.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2010. "Modelling money demand for a panel of eight transitional economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(25), pages 3293-3305.
    18. Gerberding, Christina & Gerke, Rafael & Hammermann, Felix, 2010. "Price-level targeting when there is price-level drift," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,23, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    19. Leonardo Melosi, 2017. "Signalling Effects of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 84(2), pages 853-884.
    20. Michael Krause & Wolfgang Lemke, 2006. "Optimal Monetary Policy Response to Distortionary Tax Changes," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 306, Society for Computational Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16384. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.