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New Estimates of British Unemployment, 1870-1913

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  • Hatton, Tim
  • Boyer, George

Abstract

Existing estimates of the annual unemployment rate from 1870 to 1913 were constructed by the Board of Trade, initially in 1888, and updated thereafter. This is still the series which is widely used and cited. It is based on records of the number unemployed in various trade unions and it has a number of well known flaws. The index is weighted by membership of reporting unions and is heavily skewed towards engineering and the metal trades. Some important sectors are largely omitted. We reconstruct sectoral unemployment rates based on union records and supplement this with (crude) estimates for certain other sectors based on proxies for employment. These are weighted according to labour force shares but the index still excludes agriculture and services. The basic cyclical pattern is preserved but the new series has a higher mean and a lower standard deviation than the Board of Trade index. The wide swings in unemployment during the 1870s are confirmed but the amplitude of fluctuations in the 1880s and 1890s is smaller in the new index than in the old. More tentatively, unemployment increases over time in the new index relative to the old.

Suggested Citation

  • Hatton, Tim & Boyer, George, 2001. "New Estimates of British Unemployment, 1870-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 2814, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:2814
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    Cited by:

    1. Jason Lennard, 2023. "Sticky wages and the Great Depression: evidence from the United Kingdom," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 27(2), pages 196-222.
    2. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Updated estimates of UK GDP from the income side, 1841–1920," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(3), pages 701-727, August.
    3. Calvert Jump, Robert & Kohler, Karsten, 2022. "A history of aggregate demand and supply shocks for the United Kingdom, 1900 to 2016," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2013. "Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of “Keynesian” Policies in 1930s' Britain," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1077-1104, December.
    5. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    6. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2012. "Labour Markets in Recession and Recovery: The UK and the USA in the 1920s and 1930s," CEH Discussion Papers 001, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    7. Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C, 2012. "Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy: Was There a ‘Free Lunch’ in 1930s’ Britain?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 106, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    8. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-108 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Timothy J. Hatton & Mark Thomas, 2010. "Labour markets in the interwar period and economic recovery in the UK and the USA," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, Autumn.
    10. James A. Duffy & David F. Hendry, 2017. "The impact of integrated measurement errors on modeling long-run macroeconomic time series," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6-9), pages 568-587, October.
    11. Matthias Morys, 2014. "Gold Standard Lessons for the Eurozone," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 728-741, July.
    12. Stephen Broadberry & Jagjit S. Chadha & Jason Lennard & Ryland Thomas, 2023. "Dating business cycles in the United Kingdom, 1700–2010," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(4), pages 1141-1162, November.
    13. Bodenhorn, Howard & Guinnane, Timothy W. & Mroz, Thomas A., 2013. "Problems of Sample-Selection Bias in the Historical Heights Literature: A Theoretical and Econometric Analysis," Working Papers 114, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    14. Jong, H. de & Woltjer, P., 2009. "A Comparison of Real Output and Productivity for British and American Manufacturing in 1935," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-108, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    15. Nicholas Crafts & Peter Fearon, 2010. "Lessons from the 1930s Great Depression," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 285-317, Autumn.
    16. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2023. "The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    17. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022. "The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity and implications for price inflation in 2022," Economics Series Working Papers 983, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    18. Rockoff, Hugh & White, Eugene N., 2012. "Monetary Regimes and Policy on a Global Scale: The Oeuvre of Michael D. Bordo," MPRA Paper 49672, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2013.
    19. Hegelund, Erik & Taalbi, Josef, 2023. "What determines unemployment in the long run? Band spectrum regression on ten countries 1913–2016," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 144-167.
    20. George R. Boyer & Timothy P. Schmidle, 2009. "Poverty among the elderly in late Victorian England1," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 62(2), pages 249-278, May.
    21. Anderson, Peter, 2018. "‘Tall and lithe’–The wage-height premium in the Victorian and Edwardian British railway industry," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 152-162.
    22. Ermisch, John, 2006. "An economic history of bastardy in England and Wales," ISER Working Paper Series 2006-15, Institute for Social and Economic Research.
    23. Solomos Solomou & Ryland Thomas, 2019. "Feinstein Fulfilled: Updated Estimates of UK GDP 1841-1920," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Technical Reports ESCOE-TR-04, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    24. Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 16-36.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Measurement; Unemployment; Uk; 1870-1913;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913

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