IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oxf/esohwp/_071.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

When Smaller Families Look Contagious: A Spatial Look at the French Fertility Decline Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model

Author

Listed:
  • Sandra Gonzalez-Bailon
  • Tommy Murphy

Abstract

Despite some disagreements about specific timing, it is now widely accepted that France was the first European country to experience a systematic decline in fertility, a decline that took place in a very distinctive geographical pattern. Whereas two areas of low birth rates (the Seine valley and the Aquitaine region) kept spreading, two 'islands' of high fertility (Bretagne and the Massif Central) shrank until they more or less disappeared in the early 1900s. In an attempt to provide a sensible explanation of this pattern, we build an agent-based simulation model which incorporates both historical data on population characteristics and spatial informaton on the geography of France, and allows us to study the role of social influence in fertility decisions. We assess how different behavioural assumptions and network topologies cause variations in diffusion patterns, using quantitative data on the Ecclesiastical Oath of 1791 to proxy for the impact of the Revolution. Analysis of several simulations shows that a combination of both endogenous and exogenous factors help to explain the way in which the diffusion took place and suggests some of the mechanisms through which this was materialised.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Gonzalez-Bailon & Tommy Murphy, 2008. "When Smaller Families Look Contagious: A Spatial Look at the French Fertility Decline Using an Agent-Based Simulation Model," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _071, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_071
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.nuff.ox.ac.uk/economics/history/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tommy Murphy, 2015. "Old habits die hard (sometimes)," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-222, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paul David & S. Ryan Johansson & Andrea Pozzi, 2010. "The Demography of an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates for Britain's Royals, 1500-1799," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _083, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Paul A. David & S. Ryan Johansson & Andrea Pozzi, 2010. "The Demography of an Early Mortality Transition: Life Expectancy, Survival and Mortality Rates for Britain's Royals, 1500-1799," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _083, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    3. Guillaume Daudin & Raphaël Franck & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "The cultural diffusion of the fertility transition: evidence from internal migration in 19 th century France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01321952, HAL.
    4. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01321952 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nguyen Thang Dao & Julio Dávila & Angela Greulich, 2021. "The education gender gap and the demographic transition in developing countries," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 431-474, April.
    2. Lecce, Giampaolo & Ogliari, Laura & Squicciarini, Mara P., 2021. "Birth and migration of scientists: Does religiosity matter? Evidence from 19th-century France," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 274-289.
    3. Guillaume Daudin & Raphaël Franck & Hillel Rapoport, 2016. "The cultural diffusion of the fertility transition: evidence from internal migration in 19 th century France," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01321952, HAL.
    4. repec:oxf:wpaper:71.2 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Claude Diebolt & Audrey-Rose Menard & Faustine Perrin, 2017. "Behind the fertility–education nexus: what triggered the French development process?," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 21(4), pages 357-392.
    6. Claude Diebolt & Tapas Mishra & Faustine Perrin, 2019. "Gender Equality as an Enforcer of Individuals’ Choice between Education and Fertility: Evidence from 19th Century France," Working Papers 12-19, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    7. Nico Voigtl?nder & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "How the West "Invented" Fertility Restriction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2227-2264, October.
    8. Court Victor & Florent Mc Isaac, 2019. "A Representation of the World Population Dynamics for Integrated Assessment Models," Working Papers hal-03192539, HAL.
    9. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01321952 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Diebolt, Claude & Mishra, Tapas & Perrin, Faustine, 2015. "Did Gender-Bias Matter in the Quantity-Quality Trade-off in 19th Century France?," Lund Papers in Economic History 141, Lund University, Department of Economic History.
    11. Thomas Baudin & David de la Croix, 2023. "The Emergence of the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff - insights from early modern academics," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2023015, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    12. de la Croix, David & Perrin, Faustine, 2018. "How far can economic incentives explain the French fertility and education transition?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 221-245.
    13. Sandra González-Bailón & Tommy E. Murphy, 2013. "The effects of social interactions on fertility decline in nineteenth-century France: An agent-based simulation experiment," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 135-155, July.
    14. You, Jing & Yi, Xuejie & Chen, Meng, 2016. "Love, Life, and “Leftover Ladies” in Urban China," MPRA Paper 70494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Guinnane, Timothy W. & Marrinez Rodriguez, Susana, 2012. "For Every Law, a Loophole: Flexibility in the Menu of Spanish Business Forms, 1886-1936," Center Discussion Papers 123319, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    16. Le Bris, David & Tallec, Ronan, 2021. "The European Marriage Pattern and its Positive Consequences Montesquieu-Volvestre, 1660-1789," MPRA Paper 105324, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Youssouf Merouani & Faustine Perrin, 2022. "Gender and the long-run development process. A survey of the literature [Rethinking age heaping: A cautionary tale from nineteenth-century Italy]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 612-641.
    18. Guillaume Daudin & Raphaël Franck & Hillel Rapoport, 2019. "Can Internal Migration Foster the Convergence in Regional Fertility Rates? Evidence from 19th Century France," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1618-1692.
    19. Nandi, Arindam & Summan, Amit & Ngô, D. Thoai & Bloom, David E., 2022. "Childhood Vaccinations and Demographic Transition: Long-Term Evidence from India," IZA Discussion Papers 15508, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Guillaume Blanc, 2023. "The Cultural Origins of the Demographic Transition in France," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2309, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Bhattacharya, Joydeep & Chakraborty, Shankha & Kim, Minkyong, 2023. "Child survival and contraception choice: Theory and evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    22. Brian Beach & W. Walker Hanlon, 2019. "Censorship, Family Planning, and the Historical Fertility Transition," NBER Working Papers 25752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic History; Demographic History (Europe Pre-1913); France; Demographic Economics; Fertility; Simulation Models (Agent-Based); Diffusion;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N33 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oxf:esohwp:_071. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anne Pouliquen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sfeixuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.