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The effects of social interactions on fertility decline in nineteenth-century France: An agent-based simulation experiment

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  • Sandra González-Bailón
  • Tommy E. Murphy

Abstract

We built an agent-based simulation, incorporating geographic and demographic data from nineteenth-century France, to study the role of social interactions in fertility decisions. The simulation made experimentation possible in a context where other empirical strategies were precluded by a lack of data. We evaluated how different decision rules, with and without interdependent decision-making, caused variations in population growth and fertility levels. The analyses show that incorporating social influence into the model allows empirically observed behaviour to be mimicked, especially at a national level. These findings shed light on individual-level mechanisms through which the French demographic transition may have developed.

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  • Sandra González-Bailón & Tommy E. Murphy, 2013. "The effects of social interactions on fertility decline in nineteenth-century France: An agent-based simulation experiment," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 67(2), pages 135-155, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:67:y:2013:i:2:p:135-155
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2013.774435
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Chesnais, Jean-Claude, 1992. "The Demographic Transition: Stages, Patterns, and Economic Implications," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198286592, Decembrie.
    2. Nico Voigtl?nder & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2013. "How the West "Invented" Fertility Restriction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2227-2264, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Guillaume Daudin & Raphaël Franck & Hillel Rapoport, 2019. "Can Internal Migration Foster the Convergence in Regional Fertility Rates? Evidence from 19th Century France," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(620), pages 1618-1692.
    2. de la Croix, David & Perrin, Faustine, 2018. "How far can economic incentives explain the French fertility and education transition?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 221-245.
    3. David de la Croix & Faustine Perrin, 2016. "French Fertility and Education Transition: Rational Choice vs. Cultural Diffusion," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2016007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    4. Tommy Murphy, 2015. "Old habits die hard (sometimes)," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-222, June.
    5. Nasibeh Esmaeili & Mohammad Jalal Abbasi Shavazi, 2024. "Impact of family policies and economic situation on low fertility in Tehran, Iran: A multi-agent-based modeling," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(5), pages 107-154.
    6. Sebastian Klüsener, 2015. "Spatial variation in non-marital fertility across Europe: recent trends, past path dependencies, and potential future pathways," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. Blanc, Guillaume & Wacziarg, Romain, 2020. "Change and persistence in the Age of Modernization: Saint-Germain-d’Anxure, 1730–1895," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Guillaume Blanc, 2023. "The Cultural Origins of the Demographic Transition in France," Economics Discussion Paper Series 2309, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    9. Sebastian Klüsener & Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2019. "Spatial and Social Distance at the Onset of the Fertility Transition: Sweden, 1880–1900," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(1), pages 169-199, February.
    10. Arianna Caporali & Gerda Neyer & Dora Kostova & Olga Grigorieva & Sebastian Kluesener & Sandra Krapf, 2016. "The Contextual Database of the Generations and Gender Programme: Concept, content, and research examples," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 35(9), pages 229-252.
    11. Vegard Skirbekk & Marcin Stonawski & Guido Alfani, 2014. "Consequences of a universal European demographic transition on regional and global population distributions," Working Papers 068, "Carlo F. Dondena" Centre for Research on Social Dynamics (DONDENA), Università Commerciale Luigi Bocconi.
    12. Sebastian Klüsener & Martin Dribe & Francesco Scalone, 2016. "Spatial and social distance in the fertility transition: Sweden 1880-1900," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2016-009, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    13. Hannaliis Jaadla & Alice Reid, 2017. "The geography of early childhood mortality in England and Wales, 1881–1911," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 37(58), pages 1861-1890.

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