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Possible Dynamic Effects of AFTA for the New Member Countries

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  • Emiko Fukase
  • L. Alan Winters

Abstract

We discuss the possible dynamic benefits of economic integration for the new members of ASEAN. Direct evidence on regional integration and growth is weak, but three indirect channels are possible. Openness increases access to foreign knowledge, which could help productivity growth. Trade liberalisation is likely to stimulate investment and might promote the integration of the regional production network. Binding liberalisation under AFTA would help ‘lock‐in’ and accelerate liberal economic reforms. These gains are not automatic, however. Discriminatory liberalisation will switch imports from sources with high stocks of knowledge towards ASEAN countries, which have lower stocks, and so may lower productivity growth. We term this ‘dynamic’ trade diversion. In addition, local absorptive capabilities must be developed to benefit fully from technology transfer. Finally, we recommend extending AFTA commitments on an MFN basis in order to avoid static and dynamic trade diversions.

Suggested Citation

  • Emiko Fukase & L. Alan Winters, 2003. "Possible Dynamic Effects of AFTA for the New Member Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(6), pages 853-871, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:26:y:2003:i:6:p:853-871
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-9701.00551
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    Cited by:

    1. Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J. & Fukase,Emiko & Martin,William J., 2015. "Economic implications of a potential free trade agreement between India and the United States," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7212, The World Bank.
    2. Hiro Lee & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2007. "Regional Integration, Sectoral Adjustments and Natural Groupings in East Asia," OSIPP Discussion Paper 07E008, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    3. Nguyen K. Doanh & Yoon Heo, 2009. "AFTA and Trade Diversion: An Empirical Study for Vietnam and Singapore," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 163-192, March.
    4. Huanguang Qiu & Jun Yang & Jikun Huang & Ruijian Chen, 2007. "Impact of China‐ASEAN Free Trade Area on China's International Agricultural Trade and Its Regional Development," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 15(5), pages 77-90, September.
    5. A. A. Alikhanov & V. Yu. Skryabina & E. V. Tarasyuk, 0. "Liberalization Trade Relationship Between The Countries: Assessment And Consequences," International Trade and Trade Policy, ФГБОУ ВО "Ð Ð¾Ñ Ñ Ð¸Ð¹Ñ ÐºÐ¸Ð¹ Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð½Ð¾Ð¼Ð¸Ñ‡ÐµÑ ÐºÐ¸Ð¹ ÑƒÐ½Ð¸Ð²ÐµÑ€Ñ Ð¸Ñ‚ÐµÑ‚ им. Г.Ð’. Плеханова", issue 3.
    6. Lee, Hiro & Roland-Holst, David & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2004. "China's emergence in East Asia under alternative trading arrangements," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 697-712, August.
    7. Bernadette Andreosso-O’Callaghan, 2009. "How is the EU-ASEAN FTA viewed by ASEAN stakeholders?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 63-78, February.
    8. Wang, Zhi & Gehlhar, Mark & Yao, Shunli, 2006. "Estimating Hong Kong Re-export Markups and Reconciling Trade Statistics from China, Hong Kong and Their Major Trading Partners - A Mathematical Programming Approach," Conference papers 331486, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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