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Estimation of the missing data in the Algerian mortality surface by using an age-time-segmented Lee-Carter Model

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  • FLICI, Farid

Abstract

The implementation of mortality forecasting models requires the availability of a continuous mortality surface. In Algeria, the first life table based on civil records was constructed in 1977. At that time, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) could not ensure an annual publication of these life tables because of lack of data and technical experience. It became possible only starting from 1998. No one has tried to estimate the missing data of the period [1977-1998]. Today, it is necessary to make this data available and that is the main objective of the present paper. The idea is to use the Lee-Carter model (Lee and Carter, 1992) to estimate this missing data. For this, the model parameters were firstly estimated on the available data. Then, the time component will be fitted; the fitting function will be used to estimate the missing values. Combined with the age parameters, that leads to estimates of the missing mortality rates for males, females and both-sexes populations while improving the adequacy compared to the original data.

Suggested Citation

  • FLICI, Farid, 2015. "Estimation of the missing data in the Algerian mortality surface by using an age-time-segmented Lee-Carter Model," SocArXiv xufwg_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:xufwg_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/xufwg_v1
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    2. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    3. Felipe, A. & Guillen, M. & Perez-Marin, A. M., 2002. "Recent Mortality Trends in the Spanish Population," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(4), pages 757-786, October.
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