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International projections of age specific healthcare consumption: 2015–2060

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  • Mason, Carl N.
  • Miller, Timothy

Abstract

We construct a demographically informed model of age specific healthcare consumption for 36 countries of widely varying income and wealth, in the National Transfer Accounts project. We project healthcare consumption to 2060 using a modified Lee-Carter technique. In our modification, GDP per capita plays the role of time in explaining changes in the age-pattern of health consumption as countries become wealthier. We find that rising wealth mainly affects health consumption at older-ages.

Suggested Citation

  • Mason, Carl N. & Miller, Timothy, 2018. "International projections of age specific healthcare consumption: 2015–2060," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 202-217.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:joecag:v:12:y:2018:i:c:p:202-217
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jeoa.2017.04.003
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    1. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    2. Micah Hartman & Robert Kornfeld & Aaron Catlin, 2010. "Health Care Expenditures in the National Health Expenditures Accounts and in Gross Domestic Product: A Reconciliation," BEA Working Papers 0060, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    3. Ronald Lee, 2000. "The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Applications," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 80-91.
    4. Michal Engelman & Vladimir Canudas‐Romo & Emily M. Agree, 2010. "The Implications of Increased Survivorship for Mortality Variation in Aging Populations," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(3), pages 511-539, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marina Damián Sanz & José A. Yagüe‐Fabra & Rosa Gracia Matilla, 2019. "Use of Lean techniques in health care in Spain to improve involvement and satisfaction of workers," International Journal of Health Planning and Management, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(1), pages 274-290, January.

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