Enhancing Urban Heating Systems Planning through Spatially Explicit Participatory Modeling

Effective planning of urban heating systems is crucial for achieving net-zero emissions at the city level. In particular, the spatial dimension plays a pivotal role in shaping the design and operation of these systems. Nonetheless, the integration of urban spatial and energy planning is rarely performed. To address this deficit, the current study proposes a participatory modeling methodology that explicitly incorporates the spatial dimension to facilitate integration and decision-making in the planning of urban heating systems. The methodology is applied to a case municipality to evaluate its benefits and implications for stakeholders involved in urban heat planning. The results reveal that the participatory nature of the methodology enhances the legitimacy, transparency, and relevance of the modeling process by engaging urban stakeholders, so as to exploit their valuable knowledge, experience, and understanding of the local context and related challenges. The developed methodology provides a spatial representation of district heating expansion, heating technology transition at the district-building level, and the installed capacities in each district, thereby improving the coherence of urban heat planning integrated with other urban plans. Consequently, the incorporation of the spatial dimension adds a nuanced layer of modeling outcomes to standard city level optimization models.