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Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Trade War

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  • Rotunno, Lorenzo
  • Roy, Sanchari
  • Sakakibara, Anri
  • Vezina, Pierre-Louis

Abstract

We use the US-China trade war as an exogenous shock to export opportunities in Vietnam and examine its effect on Vietnam’s exports and labor markets. We find that Vietnamese exports to the US were around 40 percent higher in 2020 relative to 2017 in sectors hit by US tariffs on Chinese products. This increase is driven by both new export product varieties and increased exports in existing categories. This expansion in export opportunities led to job creation and increased working hours in affected sectors relative to non-affected ones. It also led to an increase in wages, even more so for women workers.

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  • Rotunno, Lorenzo & Roy, Sanchari & Sakakibara, Anri & Vezina, Pierre-Louis, 2023. "Trade Policy and Jobs in Vietnam: The Unintended Consequences of Trump’s Trade War," SocArXiv 9rdne, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:socarx:9rdne
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/9rdne
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    Cited by:

    1. Hayakawa, Kazunobu, 2024. "Exports to the US and imports from China during the US-China tariff war: Evidence from regional trade data in Vietnam," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 46(3), pages 49-66.
    2. Kazunobu HAYAKAWA & Sasatra SUDSAWASD, 2024. "Impacts of Trade Diversion from China in the United States Market on Wages in a Third Country: Evidence from Thailand," Working Papers DP-2024-26, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).

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