IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/osf/osfxxx/zcwsn.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Betting on the Wrong Horse: Lobbying on TPP and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

Author

Listed:
  • Hennicke, Moritz
  • Blanga-Gubbay, Michael

Abstract

We provide systematic evidence that lobbying by firms on trade agreements matters for their stock prices. We leverage a unique shock to U.S. trade policy -- the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the de-facto U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) -- creating exogenous variation in investors' expectations of potential gains from lobbying. We find that share prices of companies that lobbied in favor of TPP underperformed by 0.41pp lower returns over the course of 10 days following the election. We construct an additional measure of lobbying on the agreement from online news articles, that strengthens our assumption that market participants are informed and build expectations over potential gains from TPP. By comparing the original TPP agreement with its newer version (CPTPP) without U.S. participation, we provide suggestive evidence that lobbying on specific provisions of high importance to the U.S. led to lower returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Hennicke, Moritz & Blanga-Gubbay, Michael, 2023. "Betting on the Wrong Horse: Lobbying on TPP and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," OSF Preprints zcwsn, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zcwsn
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/zcwsn
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://osf.io/download/652947db282745039cb863a1/
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.31219/osf.io/zcwsn?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Thomas Ferguson & Hans-Joachim Voth, 2008. "Betting on Hitler—The Value of Political Connections in Nazi Germany," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(1), pages 101-137.
    2. Marc J. Melitz & Daniel Trefler, 2012. "Gains from Trade When Firms Matter," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(2), pages 91-118, Spring.
    3. Matilde Bombardini & Francesco Trebbi, 2020. "Empirical Models of Lobbying," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 391-413, August.
    4. Dani Rodrik, 2018. "What Do Trade Agreements Really Do?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(2), pages 73-90, Spring.
    5. Stephen Ansolabehere & John M. de Figueiredo & James M. Snyder Jr, 2003. "Why is There so Little Money in U.S. Politics?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 105-130, Winter.
    6. Laurent Bouton & Micael Castanheira & Allan Drazen, 2024. "A Theory of Small Campaign Contributions," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 134(662), pages 2351-2390.
    7. Aaditya Mattoo & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta, 2020. "Handbook of Deep Trade Agreements," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 34055.
    8. Justin Wolfers & Eric Zitzewitz, 2018. "The "Standard Error" of Event Studies: Lessons from the 2016 Election," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 108, pages 584-589, May.
    9. Stephane Wolton, 2021. "Lobbying, Inside and Out: How Special Interest Groups Influence Policy Choices," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 16(4), pages 467-503, October.
    10. Kyle C. Meng & Ashwin Rode, 2019. "The social cost of lobbying over climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(6), pages 472-476, June.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Kermani, Amir & Kwak, James & Mitton, Todd, 2016. "The value of connections in turbulent times: Evidence from the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(2), pages 368-391.
    12. Isil Erel & Yeejin Jang & Michael S. Weisbach, 2020. "The Corporate Finance of Multinational Firms," NBER Working Papers 26762, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Michael Blanga Gubbay, 2020. "Essays on Lobbying and Globalization," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/312589, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    14. Karam Kang, 2016. "Policy Influence and Private Returns from Lobbying in the Energy Sector," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(1), pages 269-305.
    15. Conconi, Paola & Blanga-Gubbay, Michael & Parenti, Mathieu, 2020. "Lobbying for Globalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 14597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Adam Bonica, 2014. "Mapping the Ideological Marketplace," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 58(2), pages 367-386, April.
    17. Raymond Fisman, 2001. "Estimating the Value of Political Connections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 1095-1102, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ilona Babenko & Viktar Fedaseyeu & Song Zhang, 2017. "Do CEOs affect employees' political choices?," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1750, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    2. Tarek A Hassan & Stephan Hollander & Laurence van Lent & Ahmed Tahoun, 2019. "Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(4), pages 2135-2202.
    3. Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov & Philip Valta, 2023. "Self-Funding of Political Campaigns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(4), pages 2425-2448, April.
    4. Laurent Bouton & Julia Cagé & Edgard Dewitte & Vincent Pons, 2021. "Small Campaign Donors," Working Papers hal-03878175, HAL.
    5. Kirsten Tangaa Nielsen & Felix von Meyerinck, 2018. "Managerial Networks and Shareholder Value: Evidence from Sudden Deaths," Working Papers on Finance 1821, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    6. Coulomb, Renaud & Sangnier, Marc, 2014. "The impact of political majorities on firm value: Do electoral promises or friendship connections matter?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 158-170.
    7. Ilona Babenko & Viktar Fedaseyeu & Song Zhang, 2017. "Executives In Politics," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1762, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    8. Titl, Vitezslav & De Witte, Kristof & Geys, Benny, 2021. "Political donations, public procurement and government efficiency," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    9. Anne-Laure Delatte & Adrien Matray & Noémie Pinardon-Touati, 2020. "Private Credit Under Political Influence: Evidence from France," Working Papers 2020-56, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    10. Jordi Blanes i Vidal & Mirko Draca & Christian Fons-Rosen, 2012. "Revolving Door Lobbyists," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3731-3748, December.
    11. Pinar Yildirim & Andrei Simonov & Maria Petrova & Ricardo Perez-Truglia, 2024. "Are Political and Charitable Giving Substitutes? Evidence from the United States," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 70(11), pages 8030-8043, November.
    12. Wei-Fong Pan, 2023. "Does a firm’s lobbying activity respond to its peers’ lobbying activity?," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 194(3), pages 297-324, March.
    13. Rebecca Lessem & Sarah Niebler & Carly Urban, 2023. "Do house prices affect campaign contributions?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 629-660, July.
    14. Grossman, Richard S. & Imai, Masami, 2016. "Taking the lord's name in vain: The impact of connected directors on 19th century British banks," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 75-93.
    15. Lionel Fontagné & Nadia Rocha & Michele Ruta & Gianluca Santoni, 2023. "The Economic Impact of Deepening Trade Agreements," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 37(3), pages 366-388.
    16. Cheng, Lei, 2018. "Estimating the value of political connections in China: Evidence from sudden deaths of politically connected independent directors," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 495-514.
    17. David Schoenherr, 2019. "Political Connections and Allocative Distortions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(2), pages 543-586, April.
    18. Renaud Coulomb & Marc Sangnier, 2014. "The Impact of Political Majorities on Firm Value: Do Electoral Promises or Friendship Connections Matter?," PSE Working Papers halshs-00990241, HAL.
    19. Marco Grotteria & Max Miller & S.Lakshmi Naaraayanan, 2024. "Foreign influence in US politics," Discussion Papers 2024-12, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).
    20. Artés, Joaquín & Richter, Brian Kelleher & Timmons, Jeffrey F., 2019. "The Value of Political Geography: Evidence from the Redistricting of Firms," Working Papers 291, The University of Chicago Booth School of Business, George J. Stigler Center for the Study of the Economy and the State.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zcwsn. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: OSF (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://osf.io/preprints/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.