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Betting on the Wrong Horse: Lobbying on TPP and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election

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  • Hennicke, Moritz
  • Blanga-Gubbay, Michael

Abstract

We provide systematic evidence that lobbying by firms on trade agreements matters for their stock prices. We leverage a unique shock to U.S. trade policy – the unexpected victory of Donald Trump in the 2016 U.S. presidential election, and the de facto U.S. withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). We find that stocks of companies that advocated for TPP underperformed, experiencing a reduction in share prices by 3.15%. Further, firms whose lobbying efforts were prominently covered in online news media and those lobbying on provisions of particular interest to the U.S. faced more pronounced losses.

Suggested Citation

  • Hennicke, Moritz & Blanga-Gubbay, Michael, 2023. "Betting on the Wrong Horse: Lobbying on TPP and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election," OSF Preprints zcwsn_v1, Center for Open Science.
    • Handle: RePEc:osf:osfxxx:zcwsn_v1
    DOI: 10.31219/osf.io/zcwsn_v1
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