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The OFR Financial Stress Index

Author

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  • Phillip Monin

    (Office of Financial Research)

Abstract

We introduce a financial stress index developed by the Office of Financial Research (OFR FSI) and detail its purpose, construction, interpretation, and use in financial market monitoring. Using a logistic regression framework and dates of government intervention in the financial system as a proxy for stress events, we find that the OFR FSI performs well in identifying systemic financial stress. In addition, we find that the OFR FSI leads the Chicago Fed National Activity Index in a Granger causality analysis, suggesting that increases in financial stress help predict decreases in economic activity.

Suggested Citation

  • Phillip Monin, 2017. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Working Papers 17-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:17-04
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    File URL: https://www.financialresearch.gov/working-papers/files/OFRwp-17-04_The-OFR-Financial-Stress-Index.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kurz, Michael & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2019. "Credit Supply: Are there negative spillovers from banks’ proprietary trading? (RM/19/005-revised-)," Research Memorandum 026, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    2. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian, 2020. "Forecasting realized oil-price volatility: The role of financial stress and asymmetric loss," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    3. Kurz, Michael & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2019. "Credit Supply: Are there negative spillovers from banks’ proprietary trading?," Research Memorandum 005, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    4. Iñaki Aldasoro & Peter Hördahl & Sonya Zhu, 2022. "Under pressure: market conditions and stress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    5. Ozcelebi, Oguzhan, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of financial stress index of developed countries on the exchange market pressure index of emerging countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-302.
    6. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    7. Kurz, Michael & Kleimeier, Stefanie, 2019. "Credit Supply: Are there negative spillovers from banks’ proprietary trading?," Research Memorandum 005, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
    8. Armah, Mohammed & Amewu, Godfred, 2024. "Quantile dependence and asymmetric connectedness between global financial market stress and REIT returns: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    9. Ossandon Busch, Matias & Sánchez-Martínez, José Manuel & Rodríguez-Martínez, Anahí & Montañez-Enríquez, Ricardo & Martínez-Jaramillo, Serafín, 2022. "Growth at risk: Methodology and applications in an open-source platform," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(3).

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    Keywords

    Financial Stress Index (FSI); Office of Financial Research (OFR); Systemic Stress;
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