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A financially stressed Euro area

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  • Kappler, Marcus
  • Schleer, Frauke

Abstract

The authors analyze 149 newly compiled monthly time series on financial market stress conditions in the euro area. With the aid of a factor model they find different sources of financial stress which are important for selecting and preparing the appropriate policy response. The existence of a "Periphery Banking Crisis" factor, a "Stress" factor and a "Yield Curve" factor seems to explain the bulk of volatility in recent euro area financial sector data. Moreover, by a real-time forecasting exercise, the authors show that including additional factors - that reflect financial sector conditions - improves forecasts of economic activity at short horizons.

Suggested Citation

  • Kappler, Marcus & Schleer, Frauke, 2016. "A financially stressed Euro area," Economics Discussion Papers 2016-22, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:201622
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial stress; dynamic factor models; financial crisis; euro area; forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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