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Assessing the impacts of financial stress index of developed countries on the exchange market pressure index of emerging countries

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  • Ozcelebi, Oguzhan

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of the financial stress index (FSI) of developed countries on the exchange market pressure index (EMPI) of Brazil, China, Mexico, Russia and South Korea using nonlinear vector autoregression (VAR) model and quantile-based analysis. It was found by the nonlinear VAR that increases/decreases in the FSI of developed countries will increase/decrease the EMPI in each emerging country; on the other hand, allowing the role of regime changes, quantile regression model revealed that a raise in the FSI of developed countries may cause an increase in the EMPI of Brazil, China, Mexico, Russia and South Korea during their high-EMP periods. The effects of FSI depletion on the EMPI were found for lower EMP regimes, and it was suggested that Mexico and South Korea would be affected positively by the fall in the FSI of developed countries. The quantile slope equality test also verified that the effects of the FSI on the EMPI will vary under low/medium/high-EMP regimes and will be asymmetric.

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  • Ozcelebi, Oguzhan, 2020. "Assessing the impacts of financial stress index of developed countries on the exchange market pressure index of emerging countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 288-302.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:70:y:2020:i:c:p:288-302
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2020.07.012
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    2. Cui, Jinxin & Maghyereh, Aktham, 2024. "Unveiling interconnectedness: Exploring higher-order moments among energy, precious metals, industrial metals, and agricultural commodities in the context of geopolitical risks and systemic stress," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    3. Marina Yu. Malkina & Rodion V. Balakin, 2023. "The Relation of Financial and Industrial Stresses to Monetary Policy Parameters in the Russian Economy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 104-121, June.
    4. Hao Dong & Yingrong Zheng & Na Li, 2023. "Analysis of Systemic Risk Scenarios and Stabilization Effect of Monetary Policy under the COVID-19 Shock and Pharmaceutical Economic Recession," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(1), pages 1-32, January.
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    6. Gaies, Brahim & Chaâbane, Najeh & Arfaoui, Nadia & Sahut, Jean-Michel, 2024. "On the resilience of cryptocurrencies: A quantile-frequency analysis of bitcoin and ethereum reactions in times of inflation and financial instability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stress index; Exchange market pressure index; Quantile-based analysis; Nonlinear VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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