IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bis/bisqtr/2209c.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Under pressure: market conditions and stress

Author

Listed:
  • Iñaki Aldasoro
  • Peter Hördahl
  • Sonya Zhu

Abstract

When financial markets come under pressure, vital functions such as the efficient allocation of capital and price formation become impaired1. It is therefore important to enhance the monitoring and analysis of market conditions, in particular events that may put pressure on authorities to intervene. We introduce market conditions indicators (MCIs) for each of three key market segments: the US Treasury and US money markets, and the foreign exchange market centred around the US dollar. Our daily MCIs reflect market volatility, illiquidity and deviations from standard no-arbitrage conditions. They capture well known episodes of market turmoil. We show that it is in some cases possible to identify conditions that point to a heightened risk of future market stress months ahead of the event.

Suggested Citation

  • Iñaki Aldasoro & Peter Hördahl & Sonya Zhu, 2022. "Under pressure: market conditions and stress," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2209c
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2209c.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt2209c.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Iñaki Aldasoro & Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2018. "Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
    3. Kevin L. Kliesen & Michael T. Owyang & E. Katarina Vermann, 2012. "Disentangling diverse measures: a survey of financial stress indexes," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 369-398.
    4. Jens H. E. Christensen & Jose A. Lopez & Patrick Shultz, 2017. "Do All New Treasuries Trade at a Premium?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Mark Carlson & Kurt Lewis & William Nelson, 2014. "Using Policy Intervention To Identify Financial Stress," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 59-72, January.
    6. Nikola Tarashev & Kostas Tsatsaronis & Claudio Borio, 2016. "Risk Attribution Using the Shapley Value: Methodology and Policy Applications," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1189-1213.
    7. Jan Hatzius & Peter Hooper & Frederic S. Mishkin & Kermit L. Schoenholtz & Mark W. Watson, 2010. "Financial Conditions Indexes: A Fresh Look after the Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 16150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Phillip Monin, 2017. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Working Papers 17-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    9. Du, Wenxin & Hébert, Benjamin & Li, Wenhao, 2023. "Intermediary balance sheets and the treasury yield curve," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(3).
    10. Ben-Rephael, Azi & Choi, Jaewon & Goldstein, Itay, 2021. "Mutual fund flows and fluctuations in credit and business cycles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 84-108.
    11. Tobias Adrian & Federico Grinberg & Nellie Liang & Sheheryar Malik & Jie Yu, 2022. "The Term Structure of Growth-at-Risk," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 283-323, July.
    12. Claudio Borio & Mathias Drehmann, 2009. "Assessing the risk of banking crises - revisited," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Matteo Aquilina & Andreas Schrimpf & Karamfil Todorov, 2023. "CP and CDs markets: a primer," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oet, Mikhail V. & Gramlich, Dieter & Sarlin, Peter, 2016. "Evaluating measures of adverse financial conditions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 234-249.
    2. Chavleishvili, Sulkhan & Kremer, Manfred, 2023. "Measuring systemic financial stress and its risks for growth," Working Paper Series 2842, European Central Bank.
    3. Rémy Charleroy & Michael A. Stemmer, 2014. "An Emerging Market Financial Conditions Index: A VAR Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14068, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    4. Oet, Mikhail V. & Bianco, Timothy & Gramlich, Dieter & Ong, Stephen J., 2013. "SAFE: An early warning system for systemic banking risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4510-4533.
    5. Brandão-Marques, Luis & Chen, Qianying & Raddatz, Claudio & Vandenbussche, Jérôme & Xie, Peichu, 2022. "The riskiness of credit allocation and financial stability," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    6. Timothy Bianco & Dieter Gramlich & Mikhail V. Oet & Stephen J. Ong, 2012. "Financial stress index: a lens for supervising the financial system," Working Papers (Old Series) 12-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. O'Brien, Martin & Velasco, Sofia, 2020. "Unobserved components models with stochastic volatility for extracting trends and cycles in credit," Research Technical Papers 09/RT/20, Central Bank of Ireland.
    8. Sirio Aramonte & Samuel Rosen & John W. Schindler, 2017. "Assessing and Combining Financial Conditions Indexes," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(1), pages 1-52, February.
    9. Carrillo Julio A. & García Ana Laura, 2021. "The COVID-19 Economic Crisis in Mexico through the Lens of a Financial Conditions Index," Working Papers 2021-23, Banco de México.
    10. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Waldyr Dutra Areosa, 2016. "Financial Conditions Indicators for Brazil," Working Papers Series 435, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    11. Robin Greenwood & Samuel G. Hanson & Andrei Shleifer & Jakob Ahm Sørensen, 2022. "Predictable Financial Crises," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 863-921, April.
    12. Phillip J. Monin, 2019. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, February.
    13. Hertrich Markus, 2019. "A Novel Housing Price Misalignment Indicator for Germany," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 20(4), pages 759-794, December.
    14. Ana Beatriz Galvão & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Financial Stress Regimes and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(7), pages 1479-1505, October.
    15. Angelopoulou, Eleni & Balfoussia, Hiona & Gibson, Heather D., 2014. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 392-403.
    16. Aikman, David & Bridges, Jonathan & Hacioglu Hoke, Sinem & O’Neill, Cian & Raja, Akash, 2019. "Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach," Bank of England working papers 824, Bank of England, revised 18 Oct 2019.
    17. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Flamini, Alessandro, 2022. "Institutional mandates for macroeconomic and financial stability," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    18. Lepers, Etienne & Sánchez Serrano, Antonio, 2020. "Decomposing financial (in)stability in emerging economies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. George Apostolakis & Athanasios P. Papadopoulos, 2019. "Financial Stability, Monetary Stability and Growth: a PVAR Analysis," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 157-178, February.
    20. Mathias Drehmann & James Yetman, 2021. "Which Credit Gap Is Better at Predicting Financial Crises? A Comparison of Univariate Filters," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(70), pages 1-31, October.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2209c. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Martin Fessler (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.