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Up for count? Central bank words and financial stress

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  • Blix Grimaldi, Marianna

    (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

While knowing there is a financial distress 'when you see it' might be true, it is not particularly helpful. Indeed, central banks have an interest in understanding more systematically how their communication affects the markets, not least in order to avoid unnecessary volatility; the markets for their part have an interest in better deciphering the message of central banks, especially of course with regard to the conduct of future monetary policy. In this paper we use a novel approach rooted in textual analysis to begin to address these issues. Building on previous work from textual analysis, we are able to use quantitative methods to help identify and measure financial stress. We apply the techniques to the European Central Banks Monthly Bulletin and show that the results give a much more complete and nuanced picture of market distress than those based only on market data and may help improve how the Central Banks communication is designed and understood.

Suggested Citation

  • Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2011. "Up for count? Central bank words and financial stress," Working Paper Series 252, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0252
    as

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    File URL: http://www.riksbank.com/upload/Dokument_riksbank/Kat_publicerat/WorkingPapers/2011/wp252.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob Haan, 2011. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions? New evidence based on a Taylor rule model for the ECB," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 41-58, April.
    2. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    3. Leigh, Andrew & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2003. "What do Financial Markets Think of War in Iraq?," Research Papers 1785, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
    4. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Jakob Haan & Helge Berger (ed.), 2010. "The European Central Bank at Ten," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-642-14237-6, March.
    6. David O. Lucca & Francesco Trebbi, 2009. "Measuring Central Bank Communication: An Automated Approach with Application to FOMC Statements," NBER Working Papers 15367, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Jakob de Haan, 2009. "Does central bank communication really lead to better forecasts of policy decisions?," KOF Working papers 09-236, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi & Hyun Hak Kim, 2020. "Forecasting financial stress indices in Korea: a factor model approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(6), pages 2859-2898, December.
    2. Iulia Andreea Bucur & Mircea Muntean, 2014. "An Overview Of Fiscal Consolidation Process In The European Union," Studies and Scientific Researches. Economics Edition, "Vasile Alecsandri" University of Bacau, Faculty of Economic Sciences, issue 20.
    3. Phillip Monin, 2017. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Working Papers 17-04, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    4. Phillip J. Monin, 2019. "The OFR Financial Stress Index," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, February.
    5. Ikhlaas Gurrib, 2018. "Can an Energy Futures Index Predict US Stock Market Index Movements?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 8(5), pages 230-240.
    6. Hyeongwoo Kim & Wen Shi, 2015. "Forecasting Financial Market Vulnerability in the U.S.: A Factor Model Approach," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial stress; central bank communication; textual analysis; logit distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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