IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/oec/elsaab/283-en.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who pays for higher carbon prices?: Illustration for Lithuania and a research agenda

Author

Listed:
  • Herwig Immervoll

    (OECD)

  • Cathal O’Donoghue

    (University of Galway)

  • Jules Linden

    (University of Galway)

  • Denisa Sologon

    (Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research)

Abstract

This paper lays out an approach, and a research agenda, for assessing the impact of carbon pricing on household budgets. It relies on a rich set of available data and policy models and combines them in a way that is informative for mapping the gains and losses at the household level in the short term as countries transition to a low-carbon economy. After accounting for direct burdens from higher fuel prices, indirect effects from higher prices of goods other than fuel, and households’ behavioural responses, overall burdens are only mildly regressive. Recycling carbon-tax revenues back to households allows considerable scope for avoiding or cushioning losses for large parts of the population, and existing policy models can be used to design compensation measures that facilitate majority support for carbon tax packages.

Suggested Citation

  • Herwig Immervoll & Cathal O’Donoghue & Jules Linden & Denisa Sologon, 2023. "Who pays for higher carbon prices?: Illustration for Lithuania and a research agenda," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 283, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:283-en
    DOI: 10.1787/8f16f3d8-en
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1787/8f16f3d8-en
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1787/8f16f3d8-en?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marion, Justin & Muehlegger, Erich, 2011. "Fuel tax incidence and supply conditions," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(9-10), pages 1202-1212, October.
    2. Dominique Bureau & Fanny Henriet & Katheline Schubert, 2019. "Pour le climat : une taxe juste, pas juste une taxe," Post-Print halshs-02301656, HAL.
    3. Bach, Stefan & Kohlhaas, Michael & Meyer, Bernd & Praetorius, Barbara & Welsch, Heinz, 2002. "The effects of environmental fiscal reform in Germany: a simulation study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(9), pages 803-811, July.
    4. Casler, Stephen D. & Rafiqui, Aisha, 1993. "Evaluating Fuel Tax Equity: Direct and Indirect Distributional Effects," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 46(2), pages 197-205, June.
    5. Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1999. "A Distributional Analysis of Green Tax Reforms," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 52(4), pages 655-682, December.
    6. Bernard, Jean-Thomas & Kichian, Maral, 2019. "The long and short run effects of British Columbia's carbon tax on diesel demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 380-389.
    7. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521517133.
    8. James Browne & Herwig Immervoll, 2017. "Mechanics of replacing benefit systems with a basic income: comparative results from a microsimulation approach," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 15(4), pages 325-344, December.
    9. Arief Yusuf & Budy Resosudarmo, 2015. "On the distributional impact of a carbon tax in developing countries: the case of Indonesia," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 17(1), pages 131-156, January.
    10. Gilbert E. Metcalf & James H. Stock, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Europe's Carbon Taxes," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 15(3), pages 265-286, July.
    11. Stefano Carattini & Maria Carvalho & Sam Fankhauser, 2018. "Overcoming public resistance to carbon taxes," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(5), September.
    12. Kevin Rennert & Frank Errickson & Brian C. Prest & Lisa Rennels & Richard G. Newell & William Pizer & Cora Kingdon & Jordan Wingenroth & Roger Cooke & Bryan Parthum & David Smith & Kevin Cromar & Dela, 2022. "Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2," Nature, Nature, vol. 610(7933), pages 687-692, October.
    13. Olivier Durand-Lasserve & Lorenza Campagnolo & Jean Chateau & Rob Dellink, 2015. "Modelling of distributional impacts of energy subsidy reforms: an illustration with Indonesia," OECD Environment Working Papers 86, OECD Publishing.
    14. Sologon, Denisa Maria & O'Donoghue, Cathal & Linden, Jules & Kyzyma, Iryna & Loughrey, Jason, 2022. "Welfare and Distributional Impact of Soaring Prices in Europe," IZA Discussion Papers 15738, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Bureau, Benjamin, 2011. "Distributional effects of a carbon tax on car fuels in France," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 121-130, January.
    16. Florens Flues & Kurt van Dender, 2017. "The impact of energy taxes on the affordability of domestic energy," OECD Taxation Working Papers 30, OECD Publishing.
    17. Jan Christoph Steckel & Sebastian Renner & Leonard Missbach, 2021. "Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(05), pages 26-32, September.
    18. Kenneth W. Clements, 2019. "Four Laws of Consumption," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 95(310), pages 358-385, September.
    19. Bourgeois, Cyril & Giraudet, Louis-Gaëtan & Quirion, Philippe, 2021. "Lump-sum vs. energy-efficiency subsidy recycling of carbon tax revenue in the residential sector: A French assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Julie Anne Cronin & Don Fullerton & Steven Sexton, 2019. "Vertical and Horizontal Redistributions from a Carbon Tax and Rebate," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(S1), pages 169-208.
    21. David Klenert & Linus Mattauch & Emmanuel Combet & Ottmar Edenhofer & Cameron Hepburn & Ryan Rafaty & Nicholas Stern, 2018. "Making carbon pricing work for citizens," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 8(8), pages 669-677, August.
    22. Orsetta Causa & Emilia Soldani & Nhung Luu, 2023. "A cost-of-living squeeze? Distributional implications of rising inflation," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 47(4), pages 431-460.
    23. Baumol,William J. & Oates,Wallace E., 1988. "The Theory of Environmental Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521322249.
    24. Maximilian Auffhammer, 2018. "Quantifying Economic Damages from Climate Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 33-52, Fall.
    25. Holly Sutherland & Francesco Figari, 2013. "EUROMOD: the European Union tax-benefit microsimulation model," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 1(6), pages 4-26.
    26. Xavier Labandeira & José M. Labeaga, 1999. "Combining input-output analysis and micro-simulation to assess the effects of carbon taxation on Spanish households," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 20(3), pages 305-320, September.
    27. Pearce, David W, 1991. "The Role of Carbon Taxes in Adjusting to Global Warming," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(407), pages 938-948, July.
    28. Baranzini, Andrea & Goldemberg, Jose & Speck, Stefan, 2000. "A future for carbon taxes," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 395-412, March.
    29. Christhart Bork, 2006. "Distributional Effects of the Ecological Tax Reform in Germany: An Evaluation with a Microsimulation Model," Chapters, in: Ysé Serret & Nick Johnstone (ed.), The Distributional Effects of Environmental Policy, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    30. Wang, Qian & Hubacek, Klaus & Feng, Kuishuang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2016. "Distributional effects of carbon taxation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1123-1131.
    31. André Decoster & Jason Loughrey & Cathal O'Donoghue & Dirk Verwerft, 2011. "Microsimulation of indirect taxes," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 4(2), pages 41-56.
    32. Daniel Nachtigall & Jane Ellis & Sofie Errendal, 2022. "Carbon pricing and COVID-19: Policy changes, challenges and design options in OECD and G20 countries," OECD Environment Working Papers 191, OECD Publishing.
    33. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & López-Otero, Xiral, 2017. "A meta-analysis on the price elasticity of energy demand," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 549-568.
    34. Maximilian Konradt & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2021. "Carbon Taxation and Greenflation- Evidence from Europe and Canada," IHEID Working Papers 17-2021, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies, revised 25 Dec 2022.
    35. Rosas-Flores, Jorge Alberto & Bakhat, Mohcine & Rosas-Flores, Dionicio & Fernández Zayas, José Luis, 2017. "Distributional effects of subsidy removal and implementation of carbon taxes in Mexican households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 21-28.
    36. Vandyck, Toon & Van Regemorter, Denise, 2014. "Distributional and regional economic impact of energy taxes in Belgium," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 190-203.
    37. Berntsen, J. & Petersen, B. M. & Jacobsen, B. H. & Olesen, J. E. & Hutchings, N. J., 2003. "Evaluating nitrogen taxation scenarios using the dynamic whole farm simulation model FASSET," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 817-839, June.
    38. Nils Ohlendorf & Michael Jakob & Jan Christoph Minx & Carsten Schröder & Jan Christoph Steckel, 2021. "Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: A Meta-Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 1-42, January.
    39. Miller,Ronald E. & Blair,Peter D., 2009. "Input-Output Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521739023.
    40. Deaton,Angus & Muellbauer,John, 1980. "Economics and Consumer Behavior," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521296762, September.
    41. Vandyck, Toon & Weitzel, Matthias & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Maftei, Anamaria & Riscado, Sara, 2021. "Climate policy design, competitiveness and income distribution: A macro-micro assessment for 11 EU countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    42. Metcalf, Gilbert E., 1999. "A Distributional Analysis of Green Tax Reforms," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 52(n. 4), pages 655-82, December.
    43. Anne Owen & John Barrett, 2020. "Reducing inequality resulting from UK low-carbon policy," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1193-1208, November.
    44. Florens Flues & Alastair Thomas, 2015. "The distributional effects of energy taxes," OECD Taxation Working Papers 23, OECD Publishing.
    45. Damien Dussaux, 2020. "The joint effects of energy prices and carbon taxes on environmental and economic performance: Evidence from the French manufacturing sector," OECD Environment Working Papers 154, OECD Publishing.
    46. Labandeira, Xavier & Labeaga, José M. & Rodríguez, Miguel, 2009. "An integrated economic and distributional analysis of energy policies," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5776-5786, December.
    47. Mathur, Aparna & Morris, Adele C., 2014. "Distributional effects of a carbon tax in broader U.S. fiscal reform," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 326-334.
    48. Feindt, Simon & Kornek, Ulrike & Labeaga, José M. & Sterner, Thomas & Ward, Hauke, 2021. "Understanding regressivity: Challenges and opportunities of European carbon pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    49. Kirk Hamilton & Grant Cameron, 1994. "Simulating the Distributional Effects of a Canadian Carbon Tax," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 20(4), pages 385-399, December.
    50. Diamond,John W. & Zodrow,George R. (ed.), 2021. "Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108790505, September.
    51. Diamond,John W. & Zodrow,George R. (ed.), 2021. "Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781108479684, September.
    52. James Banks & Richard Blundell & Arthur Lewbel, 1997. "Quadratic Engel Curves And Consumer Demand," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 527-539, November.
    53. Ekins, Paul & Pollitt, Hector & Barton, Jennifer & Blobel, Daniel, 2011. "The implications for households of environmental tax reform (ETR) in Europe," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(12), pages 2472-2485.
    54. Nordhaus, William D, 1991. "A Sketch of the Economics of the Greenhouse Effect," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 146-150, May.
    55. Casler, Stephen D. & Rafiqui, Aisha, 1993. "Evaluating Fuel Tax Equity: Direct and Indirect Distributional Effects," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 46(2), pages 197-205, June.
    56. Elizabeth Symons & John Proops & Philip Gay, 1994. "Carbon taxes, consumer demand and carbon dioxide emissions: a simulation analysis for the UK," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 15(2), pages 19-43, May.
    57. Jan C. Steckel & Ira I. Dorband & Lorenzo Montrone & Hauke Ward & Leonard Missbach & Fabian Hafner & Michael Jakob & Sebastian Renner, 2021. "Distributional impacts of carbon pricing in developing Asia," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 4(11), pages 1005-1014, November.
    58. Cathal O'Donoghue & Jason Loughrey, 2014. "Nowcasting in Microsimulation Models: A Methodological Survey," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 17(4), pages 1-12.
    59. Deaton, Angus, 1974. "A Reconsideration of the Empirical Implications of Additive Preferences," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 84(334), pages 338-348, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nils Ohlendorf & Michael Jakob & Jan Christoph Minx & Carsten Schröder & Jan Christoph Steckel, 2021. "Distributional Impacts of Carbon Pricing: A Meta-Analysis," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(1), pages 1-42, January.
    2. Nils Ohlendorf & Michael Jakob & Jan Christoph Minx & Carsten Schröder & Jan Christoph Steckel, 2018. "Distributional Impacts of Climate Mitigation Policies - a Meta-Analysis," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1776, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Feindt, Simon & Kornek, Ulrike & Labeaga, José M. & Sterner, Thomas & Ward, Hauke, 2021. "Understanding regressivity: Challenges and opportunities of European carbon pricing," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    4. de Bruin, Kelly & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2024. "Efficiency–equity trade-off in the Irish carbon tax: A CGE investigation of mixed revenue recycling schemes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. Heindl, Peter & Löschel, Andreas, 2015. "Social implications of green growth policies from the perspective of energy sector reform and its impact on households," CAWM Discussion Papers 81, University of Münster, Münster Center for Economic Policy (MEP).
    6. Muth, Daniel, 2023. "Pathways to stringent carbon pricing: Configurations of political economy conditions and revenue recycling strategies. A comparison of thirty national level policies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 214(C).
    7. Vona, Francesco, 2023. "Managing the distributional effects of climate policies: A narrow path to a just transition," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    8. Johne, Clara & Schröder, Enno & Ward, Hauke, 2023. "The distributional effects of a nitrogen tax: Evidence from Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    9. Moz-Christofoletti, Maria Alice & Pereda, Paula Carvalho, 2021. "Winners and losers: the distributional impacts of a carbon tax in Brazil," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    10. Ravigné, Emilien & Ghersi, Frédéric & Nadaud, Franck, 2022. "Is a fair energy transition possible? Evidence from the French low-carbon strategy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
    11. Wang, Qian & Hubacek, Klaus & Feng, Kuishuang & Wei, Yi-Ming & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2016. "Distributional effects of carbon taxation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1123-1131.
    12. Jiang, Zhujun & Shao, Shuai, 2014. "Distributional effects of a carbon tax on Chinese households: A case of Shanghai," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 269-277.
    13. Alvarez, Maximiliano, 2019. "Distributional effects of environmental taxation: An approximation with a meta-regression analysis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 382-401.
    14. Leif Jacobs & Lara Quack & Mario Mechtel, 2021. "Distributional Effects of Carbon Pricing by Transport Fuel Taxation," Working Paper Series in Economics 405, University of Lüneburg, Institute of Economics.
    15. Mireille Chiroleu-Assouline, 2022. "Rendre acceptable la nécessaire taxation du carbone. Quelles pistes pour la France ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(1), pages 15-53.
    16. Semet, Raphaël, 2024. "Coordinating social equity and emissions: Challenges in carbon tax policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    17. Cathal ODonoghue & Beenish Amjad & Jules Linden & Nora Lustig & Denisa Sologon & Yang Wang, 2023. "The Distributional Impact of Inflation in Pakistan: A Case Study of a New Price Focused Microsimulation Framework, PRICES," Papers 2310.00231, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    18. Hübler, Michael & Wiese, Malin & Braun, Marius & Damster, Johannes, 2024. "The distributional effects of CO2 pricing at home and at the border on German income groups," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    19. Maria Alice Moz-Christofoletti & Paula Carvalho Pereda, 2021. "Winners and losers: the distributional impact of a carbon tax in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_08, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    20. Yakut, Aykut Mert & de Bruin, Kelly, 2023. "The importance of having a more realistic welfare transfer determination rule: A CGE analysis for Ireland," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1310-1325.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carbon tax; Carbon tax; climate change; inequality; revenue recycling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C8 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:oec:elsaab:283-en. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/eloecfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.