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The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: A DSGE Analysis

Author

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  • Davide Furceri

    (OECD)

  • Annabelle Mourougane

    (OECD)

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of fiscal policy on output in the euro area. For this purpose we develop a DSGE Fiscal Model with endogenous government bond yields to assess the impact of different fiscal policy shocks on output, its components and on government debt. The simulations suggest that fiscal policy is effective in supporting activity, especially in the short term. In particular, the largest fiscal multipliers are found for an increase in public investment, public consumption and a cut in the wage tax. The results are robust to different parameter calibrations and are economically significant. Amongst the different structural parameters, the share of liquidity constrained households and price persistence are found to be the ones which affect the most fiscal multipliers. Les effets de la politique budgétaire sur la production : une analyse à partir d'un modèle DSGE Ce papier examine les effets de la politique budgétaire sur l?activité dans la zone euro. À cette fin, nous avons développé un modèle budgétaire DSGE dans lequel les rendements des obligations d?État sont endogènes et nous examinons l?effet de différents chocs budgétaires sur le PIB et ses composantes et sur la dette publique. Les simulations indiquent que la politique budgétaire permet de soutenir l?activité, en particulier sur le court terme. Plus précisément, les multiplicateurs budgétaires les plus larges sont associés à une augmentation de l?investissement public, de la consommation publique ainsi qu?à une baisse du taux d?imposition sur les salaires. Les résultats sont robustes à différentes valeurs des paramètres structuraux du modèle et sont économiquement significatifs. Parmi les différents paramètres structurels, la part des ménages qui rencontrent des contraintes de liquidité et les inerties au niveau des prix sont les paramètres qui affectent le plus les multiplicateurs fiscaux.

Suggested Citation

  • Davide Furceri & Annabelle Mourougane, 2010. "The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: A DSGE Analysis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 770, OECD Publishing.
    • Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:770-en
    DOI: 10.1787/5kmfp4z3njg0-en
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    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output: A DSGE Analysis
      by Christian Zimmermann in NEP-DGE blog on 2010-06-03 01:24:51

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    Cited by:

    1. Deleidi, Matteo & Iafrate, Francesca & Levrero, Enrico Sergio, 2020. "Public investment fiscal multipliers: An empirical assessment for European countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 354-365.
    2. Collingro, Franziska & Frenkel, Michael, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the euro area: A comparative study⋆," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 386-397.
    3. Marco Di Pietro & Luigi Marattin & Raoul Minetti, 2020. "Fiscal Policies Amid a Pandemic: The Response of Italy to the COVID-19 Crisis," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 73(3), pages 927-950, September.
    4. Hicham BADDI & Kamal LAHLOU, 2013. "The Analysis of Fiscal Policy Shocks’ Transmission in Morocco," International Journal of Business and Social Research, MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, vol. 3(10), pages 1-12, October.
    5. N. Bilkic & B. Carreras Painter & T. Gries, 2013. "Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-45, March.
    6. Piotr Krajewski, 2017. "Heterogeneity of Households and the Effects of Fiscal Policy in the CEE Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 79-93, June.
    7. Ana-Maria Sandica & Alexie Alupoaiei, 2013. "The Implications for Fiscal Policy Considering Rule-of-Thumb Consumers in the New Keynesian Model for Romania," International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Accounting, Finance and Management Sciences, vol. 3(3), pages 365-371, July.
    8. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    9. repec:prs:ecstat:estat_0336-1454_2017_num_494_1_10782 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Jocelyn Boussard & Benoît Campagne, 2017. "Fiscal policy coordination in a monetary union at the zero lower bound," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 65-90.
    11. Battistini, Niccolò & Callegari, Giovanni & Zavalloni, Luca, 2019. "Dynamic fiscal limits and monetary-fiscal policy interactions," Working Paper Series 2268, European Central Bank.
    12. Piotr Krajewski & Agata Szymanska, 2019. "The effectiveness of fiscal policy within business cycle-Ricardians vs. non-Ricardians approach," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 195-215.
    13. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria, . "Política orçamental numa pequena economia da área do euro," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    14. Holtemöller, Oliver & Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Drechsel, Katja & Drygalla, Andrej & Giesen, Sebastian & Hennecke, Peter & Kiesel, Konstantin & Loose, Brigitte & Meier, Carsten-Patrick & Zeddies, Götz, 2015. "Ökonomische Wirksamkeit der Konjunktur stützenden finanzpolitischen Maßnahmen der Jahre 2008 und 2009. Forschungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen," IWH Online 4/2015, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Jarmila Botev & Annabelle Mourougane, 2017. "Fiscal Consolidation: What Are the Breakeven Fiscal Multipliers?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 63(3), pages 295-316.
    16. Marco Di Pietro & Luigi Marattin & Raoul Minetti, 2021. "Public debt, sovereign spreads and the unpleasant arithmetic of fiscal consolidations," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(2), pages 155-178, August.
    17. Ítalo Pedrosa & Maryse Farhi, 2015. "Macroeconomic theory in the aftermath of the crisis: mainstream and new Keynesianism [Macroeconomic theory in the aftermath of the crisis: mainstream and new Keynesianism]," Nova Economia, Economics Department, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (Brazil), vol. 25(2), pages 237-260, May-Augus.
    18. Papageorgiou, Dimitris, 2012. "Fiscal policy reforms in general equilibrium: The case of Greece," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 504-522.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    activité; debt sustainability; DSGE; DSGE; fiscal policy; output; politique budgétaire; soutenabilité de dette;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General

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