IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/applec/v55y2023i9p963-989.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Time-varying impacts of oil price shocks on China’s stock market under economic policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Zhenhua Liu
  • Tingting Zhu
  • Zhaoping Duan
  • Shanqi Xuan
  • Zhihua Ding
  • Shan Wu

Abstract

The role of economic policy uncertainty in the risk transmission between crude oil and stock market cannot be ignored. However, it is unclear whether economic policy uncertainty always amplifies the impact of oil price shocks on stock market over time. This study employs the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) model to examine the dynamic relationship among different types of oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty, and China’s stock market returns at the aggregate and industry levels. The empirical results are as follows: First, different types of oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty have significant time-varying impacts on stock market returns, which mainly occur in the short term. During periods of increased economic policy uncertainty, the stock market is more sensitive to oil price shocks. Second, economic policy uncertainty provides a transmission channel for the propagation between oil price shocks and stock markets, but how does economic policy uncertainty connect oil-stock nexus depends on the origins of oil price shocks. Third, the response patterns of stock market to oil price shocks and economic policy uncertainty are heterogeneous in different industries. Our results provide important implications for policymakers and investors.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhenhua Liu & Tingting Zhu & Zhaoping Duan & Shanqi Xuan & Zhihua Ding & Shan Wu, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of oil price shocks on China’s stock market under economic policy uncertainty," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(9), pages 963-989, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:9:p:963-989
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2022.2095342
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/00036846.2022.2095342
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/00036846.2022.2095342?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Feng Ma & M. I. M. Wahab & Jing Liu & Li Liu, 2018. "Is economic policy uncertainty important to forecast the realized volatility of crude oil futures?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(18), pages 2087-2101, April.
    3. Lee, Chi-Chuan & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Ning, Shao-Lin, 2017. "Dynamic relationship of oil price shocks and country risks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 571-581.
    4. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Panagiotakopoulou, Sofia, 2018. "Oil price shocks and uncertainty: How stable is their relationship over time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 42-53.
    5. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2022. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 828-844, October.
    6. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Forty Years of Oil Price Fluctuations: Why the Price of Oil May Still Surprise Us," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 30(1), pages 139-160, Winter.
    7. Ma, Rufei & Deng, Chengtao & Cai, Huan & Zhai, Pengxiang, 2019. "Does Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect drive market comovement between Shanghai and Hong Kong: A new evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    8. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    9. Asteriou, Dimitrios & Bashmakova, Yuliya, 2013. "Assessing the impact of oil returns on emerging stock markets: A panel data approach for ten Central and Eastern European Countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 204-211.
    10. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Mensi, Walid & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis H., 2018. "Extreme dependence and risk spillovers between oil and Islamic stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-63.
    11. Francesco Lippi & Andrea Nobili, 2012. "Oil And The Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Structural Analysis," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1059-1083, October.
    12. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    13. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    14. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    15. Jean‐Marc Natal, 2012. "Monetary Policy Response to Oil Price Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 53-101, February.
    16. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    17. Montoro, Carlos, 2012. "Oil Shocks And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 240-277, April.
    18. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    19. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    20. Yu Li & Feng Ma & Yaojie Zhang & Zuoping Xiao, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and the Chinese stock market volatility: new evidence," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(49), pages 5398-5410, October.
    21. Sheng, Xin & Gupta, Rangan & Ji, Qiang, 2020. "The impacts of structural oil shocks on macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from a large panel of 45 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    22. Christiane Baumeister & James D. Hamilton, 2019. "Structural Interpretation of Vector Autoregressions with Incomplete Identification: Revisiting the Role of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(5), pages 1873-1910, May.
    23. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The global financial crisis: Causes, threats and opportunities. Introduction and overview," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1243-1245, December.
    24. Rabeh Khalfaoui & Sakiru Adebola Solarin & Adel Al-Qadasi & Sami Ben Jabeur, 2022. "Dynamic causality interplay from COVID-19 pandemic to oil price, stock market, and economic policy uncertainty: evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 313(1), pages 105-143, June.
    25. Xuejun Jin & Ziqing Chen & Xiaolan Yang, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock price crash risk," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(5), pages 1291-1318, March.
    26. Miller, J. Isaac & Ratti, Ronald A., 2009. "Crude oil and stock markets: Stability, instability, and bubbles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 559-568, July.
    27. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    28. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S., 2014. "The relationship between oil prices and the Nigerian stock market. An analysis based on fractional integration and cointegration," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 328-333.
    29. Ji, Qiang & Liu, Bing-Yue & Zhao, Wan-Li & Fan, Ying, 2020. "Modelling dynamic dependence and risk spillover between all oil price shocks and stock market returns in the BRICS," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    30. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
    31. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    32. repec:eee:finlet:v:24:y:2018:i:c:p:56-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    33. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    34. Benlagha, Noureddine & Omari, Salaheddine El, 2022. "Connectedness of stock markets with gold and oil: New evidence from COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    35. Liu, Guanchun & Zhang, Chengsi, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and firms' investment and financing decisions in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    36. Dungey, Mardi & Gajurel, Dinesh, 2015. "Contagion and banking crisis – International evidence for 2007–2009," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 271-283.
    37. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2017. "Oil price shocks, policy uncertainty, and stock returns of oil and gas corporations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 344-359.
    38. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    39. Liu, Zhenhua & Tseng, Hui-Kuan & Wu, Jy S. & Ding, Zhihua, 2020. "Implied volatility relationships between crude oil and the U.S. stock markets: Dynamic correlation and spillover effects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    40. Qin, Yun & Chen, Jinyu & Dong, Xuesong, 2021. "Oil prices, policy uncertainty and travel and leisure stocks in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    41. Kang, Wensheng & Perez de Gracia, Fernando & Ratti, Ronald A., 2021. "Economic uncertainty, oil prices, hedging and U.S. stock returns of the airline industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    42. Jouchi Nakajima, 2011. "Time-Varying Parameter VAR Model with Stochastic Volatility: An Overview of Methodology and Empirical Applications," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 29, pages 107-142, November.
    43. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    44. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "Oil volatility shocks and the stock markets of oil-importing MENA economies: A tale from the financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 590-598.
    45. Drobetz, Wolfgang & El Ghoul, Sadok & Guedhami, Omrane & Janzen, Malte, 2018. "Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-45.
    46. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.
    47. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
    48. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    49. Filippou, Ilias & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Taylor, Mark P., 2018. "Global Political Risk and Currency Momentum," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 53(5), pages 2227-2259, October.
    50. Lin, Boqiang & Su, Tong, 2020. "Mapping the oil price-stock market nexus researches: A scientometric review," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 133-147.
    51. Nagar, Venky & Schoenfeld, Jordan & Wellman, Laura, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on investor information asymmetry and management disclosures," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 36-57.
    52. Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti, 2015. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock returns in China," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(4), pages 657-676, October.
    53. Hailemariam, Abebe & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin, 2019. "Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from a nonparametric panel data model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 40-51.
    54. Dinesh Gajurel & Biplob Chowdhury, 2021. "Realized Volatility, Jump and Beta: evidence from Canadian Stock Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(55), pages 6376-6397, November.
    55. B., Anand & Paul, Sunil, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market: Revisiting the dynamics," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    56. Dinesh Gajurel & Akhila Chawla, 2022. "The oil price crisis and contagion effects on the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 1527-1543, March.
    57. Huseyin Gulen & Mihai Ion, 2016. "Editor's Choice Policy Uncertainty and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 523-564.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yildirim, Zekeriya & Guloglu, Hasan, 2024. "Macro-financial transmission of global oil shocks to BRIC countries — International financial (uncertainty) conditions matter," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    2. Luo, Changqing & Qu, Yi & Su, Yaya & Dong, Liang, 2024. "Risk spillover from international crude oil markets to China’s financial markets: Evidence from extreme events and U.S. monetary policy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    2. Smyth, Russell & Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2018. "What do we know about oil prices and stock returns?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 148-156.
    3. You, Wanhai & Guo, Yawei & Zhu, Huiming & Tang, Yong, 2017. "Oil price shocks, economic policy uncertainty and industry stock returns in China: Asymmetric effects with quantile regression," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 1-18.
    4. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, , vol. 39(5), pages 85-130, September.
    5. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M., 2020. "The asymmetric oil price and policy uncertainty shock exposure of emerging market sectoral equity returns: A quantile regression approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 563-581.
    6. Yang, Tianle & Zhou, Fangxing & Du, Min & Du, Qunyang & Zhou, Shirong, 2023. "Fluctuation in the global oil market, stock market volatility, and economic policy uncertainty: A study of the US and China," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 377-387.
    7. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George & Panagiotakopoulou, Sofia, 2018. "Oil price shocks and uncertainty: How stable is their relationship over time?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 42-53.
    8. Liu, Zhenhua & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhai, Pengxiang & Wu, Shan & Ding, Zhihua & Zhou, Yuqin, 2021. "Tail risk connectedness in the oil-stock nexus: Evidence from a novel quantile spillover approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Silvapulle, Param & Smyth, Russell & Zhang, Xibin & Fenech, Jean-Pierre, 2017. "Nonparametric panel data model for crude oil and stock market prices in net oil importing countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 255-267.
    10. Hanif, Waqas & Hadhri, Sinda & El Khoury, Rim, 2024. "Quantile spillovers and connectedness between oil shocks and stock markets of the largest oil producers and consumers," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    11. Lang, Korbinian & Auer, Benjamin R., 2020. "The economic and financial properties of crude oil: A review," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Ziadat, Salem Adel & McMillan, David G. & Herbst, Patrick, 2022. "Oil shocks and equity returns during bull and bear markets: The case of oil importing and exporting nations," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.
    14. Rehman, Mobeen Ur, 2018. "Do oil shocks predict economic policy uncertainty?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 498(C), pages 123-136.
    15. Babak Fazelabdolabadi, 2019. "Uncertainty and energy-sector equity returns in Iran: a Bayesian and quasi-Monte Carlo time-varying analysis," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-20, December.
    16. Yuan, Di & Li, Sufang & Li, Rong & Zhang, Feipeng, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil and stock markets in BRIC: Evidence from quantiles analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    17. Dinesh Gajurel & Akhila Chawla, 2022. "The oil price crisis and contagion effects on the Canadian economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(13), pages 1527-1543, March.
    18. Zhang, Zhikai & Wang, Yudong & Xiao, Jihong & Zhang, Yaojie, 2023. "Not all geopolitical shocks are alike: Identifying price dynamics in the crude oil market under tensions," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    19. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "Oil shocks, policy uncertainty and stock market return," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 305-318.
    20. Broadstock, David C. & Filis, George, 2014. "Oil price shocks and stock market returns: New evidence from the United States and China," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 417-433.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:55:y:2023:i:9:p:963-989. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RAEC20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.