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The impact of the initial condition on robust tests for a linear trend

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  • David I. Harvey
  • Stephen J. Leybourne
  • A. M. Robert Taylor

Abstract

This paper examines the behaviour of some recently proposed robust (to the order of integration of the data) tests for the presence of a deterministic linear trend in a univariate times series in situations where the magnitude of the initial condition of the series is non-negligible. We demonstrate that the asymptotic size and/or local power properties of these tests are extremely sensitive to the initial condition. Straightforward modifications to the trend tests are suggested, based around the use of trimmed data, which are demonstrated to greatly reduce this sensitivity.

Suggested Citation

  • David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2009. "The impact of the initial condition on robust tests for a linear trend," Discussion Papers 09/03, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
    • Handle: RePEc:not:notgts:09/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bunzel, Helle & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "Powerful Trend Function Tests That Are Robust to Strong Serial Correlation, With an Application to the Prebisch-Singer Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 23, pages 381-394, October.
    2. Elliott, Graham & Muller, Ulrich K., 2006. "Minimizing the impact of the initial condition on testing for unit roots," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 285-310.
    3. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    4. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    5. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Estimating deterministic trends with an integrated or stationary noise component," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 151(1), pages 56-69, July.
    6. Anindya Roy & Barry Falk & Wayne A. Fuller, 2004. "Testing for Trend in the Presence of Autoregressive Error," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 1082-1091, December.
    7. Kiefer, Nicholas M. & Vogelsang, Timothy J., 2005. "A New Asymptotic Theory For Heteroskedasticity-Autocorrelation Robust Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(6), pages 1130-1164, December.
    8. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2007. "A simple, robust and powerful test of the trend hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1302-1330, December.
    9. Ulrich K. M¸ller & Graham Elliott, 2003. "Tests for Unit Roots and the Initial Condition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(4), pages 1269-1286, July.
    10. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2009. "Unit Root Testing In Practice: Dealing With Uncertainty Over The Trend And Initial Condition," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(3), pages 587-636, June.
    11. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
    12. David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne, 2005. "On testing for unit roots and the initial observation," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 8(1), pages 97-111, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Elliott, Graham, 2020. "Testing for a trend with persistent errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 314-328.
    2. Anton Skrobotov, 2015. "Trend and Initial Condition in Stationarity Tests: The Asymptotic Analysis," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(2), pages 254-273, April.
    3. Terence Mills, 2013. "Breaks and unit roots in global and hemispheric temperatures: an updated analysis," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(3), pages 745-755, June.
    4. Skrobotov Anton, 2018. "On Trend Breaks and Initial Condition in Unit Root Testing," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, January.
    5. Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон), 2015. "About Trend, the Shift and the Initial Value in Testing of the Hypothesis of a Unit Root [О Тренде, Сдвиге И Начальном Значении В Тестировании Гипотезы О Наличии Единичного Корня]," Published Papers mak6, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.

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