IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/new/wpaper/2209.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Setterfield

    (Department of Economics, New School for Social Research)

Abstract

The early stages of recovery from the recession induced by the COVID-19 pandemic have been accompanied by a marked increase in inflation in the US and elsewhere. Much has been made of this outcomes, and the economic distress associated with it, in popular discussion of the economy. This paper provides a Kaleckian conflicting-claims analysis of inflation during the post-COVID recovery, that distinguishes between rising wages, pandemic-related supply shocks, and corporate price-setting behaviour as sources of inflationary pressure. A key conclusion that arises from the co-determination of inflation and distributional outcomes in the Kaleckian framework is that distributional developments that have further disadvantaged working households, rather than inflation per se, are the chief source of recent economic distress - and should be the chief cause for concern among policy makers.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Inflation and distribution during the post-COVID recovery: a Kaleckian approach," Working Papers 2209, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2209
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.economicpolicyresearch.org/econ/2022/NSSR_WP_092022.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2022
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Falk Bräuning & José Fillat & Gustavo Joaquim, 2022. "Cost-Price Relationships in a Concentrated Economy," Current Policy Perspectives 94265, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. David Blanchflower & Alex Bryson & Jackson Spurling, 2024. "The wage curve after the Great Recession," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 91(362), pages 653-668, April.
    3. Forsythe, Eliza & Kahn, Lisa B. & Lange, Fabian & Wiczer, David, 2022. "Where have all the workers gone? Recalls, retirements, and reallocation in the COVID recovery," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Marc Lavoie, 2014. "Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations," Post-Print hal-01343652, HAL.
    5. Ivan Mendieta‐Muñoz & Codrina Rada & Rudi von Arnim, 2021. "The Decline of the US Labor Share Across Sectors," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 67(3), pages 732-758, September.
    6. Anna Stansbury & Lawrence H. Summers, 2020. "The Declining Worker Power Hypothesis: An Explanation for the Recent Evolution of the American Economy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(1 (Spring), pages 1-96.
    7. Mark Setterfield, 1997. "Should Economists Dispense with the Notion of Equilibrium?," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 47-76, September.
    8. Michael Weber & Francesco D'Acunto & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Olivier Coibion, 2022. "The Subjective Inflation Expectations of Households and Firms: Measurement, Determinants, and Implications," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 157-184, Summer.
    9. David Ratner & Jae W. Sim, 2022. "Who Killed the Phillips Curve? A Murder Mystery," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-028, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. David Card, 2022. "Who Set Your Wage?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(4), pages 1075-1090, April.
    11. Chen Yeh & Claudia Macaluso & Brad Hershbein, 2022. "Monopsony in the US Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(7), pages 2099-2138, July.
    12. Jan De Loecker & Jan Eeckhout & Gabriel Unger, 2020. "The Rise of Market Power and the Macroeconomic Implications [“Econometric Tools for Analyzing Market Outcomes”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 135(2), pages 561-644.
    13. Mark Setterfield, 2006. "Balancing the Macroeconomic Books on the Backs of Workers: A Simple Analytical Political Economy Model of Contemporary U.S. Capitalism," International Journal of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 46-63.
    14. Yeva Nersisyan & L. Randall Wray, 2022. "What's Causing Accelerating Inflation: Pandemic or Policy Response?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_1003, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Giulia Giupponi & Camille Landais & Alice Lapeyre, 2022. "Should We Insure Workers or Jobs during Recessions?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(2), pages 29-54, Spring.
    16. Mark Setterfield & Robert A Blecker, 2022. "Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions," Working Papers PKWP2208, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    17. Mark Setterfield & Ted Lovejoy, 2006. "Aspirations, bargaining power, and macroeconomic performance," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 117-148.
    18. Rowthorn, R E, 1977. "Conflict, Inflation and Money," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 1(3), pages 215-239, September.
    19. R. L. Hall & C. J. Hitch, 1939. "Price Theory And Business Behaviour," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 0(1), pages 12-45.
    20. Ettore Gallo & Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Historical Time and the Current State of Post-Keynesian Growth Theory," Working Papers 2204, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    21. Servaas Storm, 2022. "Inflation in the Time of Corona and War," Working Papers Series inetwp185, Institute for New Economic Thinking.
    22. Setterfield, Mark, 2007. "The rise, decline and rise of incomes policies in the US during the post-war era: an institutional-analytical explanation of inflation and the functional distribution of income," Journal of Institutional Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(2), pages 127-146, August.
    23. Pascal Michaillat & Emmanuel Saez, 2022. "u* = √uv," NBER Working Papers 30211, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Carola Binder & Rupal Kamdar, 2022. "Expected and Realized Inflation in Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 36(3), pages 131-156, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mark Setterfield, 2024. "Managing the Discontent of the Losers Redux: A Future of Authoritarian Neoliberalism or Social Capitalism?," FMM Working Paper 98-2024, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    2. Montes Rojas Gabriel & Dvoskin Ariel & Feldman Germán, 2023. "Exchange-Rate Regime And Sectorial Profitability In A Small Open Economy: A Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of Argentina (2016-2023)," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4673, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    3. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wildauer, Rafael & Kohler, Karsten & Aboobaker, Adam & Guschanski, Alexander, 2023. "Energy price shocks, conflict inflation, and income distribution in a three-sector model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    2. Peter Flaschel & Sigrid Luchtenberg & Hagen Kramer & Christian Proano & Mark Setterfield, 2021. "Contemporary Macroeconomic Outcomes: A Tragedy in Three Acts," Working Papers 2105, New School for Social Research, Department of Economics.
    3. Vinicius Curti Cícero & Daniele Tavani, 2024. "Institutional changes, effective demand and inequality: a structuralist model of secular stagnation," Working Papers PKWP2410, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    4. Lilian N. Rolim & Carolina Troncoso Baltar & Gilberto Tadeu Lima, 2023. "Income distribution, productivity growth, and workers’ bargaining power in an agent-based macroeconomic model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 473-516, April.
    5. Mark Setterfield, 2023. "Whatever Happened to the ‘Goodwin Pattern’? Profit Squeeze Dynamics in the Modern American Labour Market," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 263-286, January.
    6. Rolim, Lilian & Carvalho, Laura & Lang, Dany, 2024. "Monetary policy rules and the inequality-augmented Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Eduardo F. Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2015. "A simple analytical model of the adverse real effects of inflation," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 637-665, November.
    8. Cauvel, Michael & Pacitti, Aaron, 2022. "Bargaining power, structural change, and the falling U.S. labor share," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 512-530.
    9. Eduardo F Bastian & Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2024. "Inflation regimes and hyperinflation: a Post-Keynesian/structuralist typology," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 48(4), pages 681-708.
    10. Serrano, Franklin & Summa , Ricardo, 2015. "Distribution and Cost-Push inflation in Brazil under inflation targeting, 1999-2014," Centro Sraffa Working Papers CSWP14, Centro di Ricerche e Documentazione "Piero Sraffa".
    11. Kulesza, Marta, 2017. "Inflation and hyperinflation in Venezuela (1970s-2016): A post-Keynesian interpretation," IPE Working Papers 93/2017, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    12. Philipp Heimberger, 2021. "Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?," FMM Working Paper 74-2021, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    13. Mark Setterfield, 2022. "Neoliberalism: An Entrenched but Exhausted Growth Regime," Ensayos Económicos, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, vol. 1(79), pages 131-146, May.
    14. Ana Bottega & Rafael S. M. Ribeiro, 2023. "Kalecki meets Schumpeter: The decline of competition in a demand‐led dynamic model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(3), pages 584-605, July.
    15. Schiavone, Ansel, 2023. "Labor market concentration and labor share dynamics for US regional industries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    16. Eduardo F Bastian & Mark Setterfield, 2020. "Nominal exchange rate shocks and inflation in an open economy: towards a structuralist inflation targeting agenda," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 44(6), pages 1271-1299.
    17. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & James Yetman & Egon Zakrajsek, 2023. "The two-regime view of inflation," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 133.
    18. Mark Setterfield & Robert A Blecker, 2022. "Structural change in the US Phillips curve, 1948-2021: the role of power and institutions," Working Papers PKWP2208, Post Keynesian Economics Society (PKES).
    19. Sébastien Charles & Jonathan Marie, 2021. "How Israel avoided hyperinflation. The success of its 1985 stabilization plan in the light of post-Keynesian theory," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 528-558, May.
    20. Bortz Pablo Gabriel & Michelena Gabriel & Toledo Fernando, 2018. "Foreign debt, conflicting claims and income policies in a Kaleckian model of growth and distribution," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-22, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; COVID-19; conflicting claims; wage share; income distribution;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • E11 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Marxian; Sraffian; Kaleckian
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E25 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Aggregate Factor Income Distribution
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E64 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Incomes Policy; Price Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:new:wpaper:2209. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Mark Setterfield (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/denewus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.