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The Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Increases: Evidence from a Pre-specified Research Design

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  • David Neumark

Abstract

This paper presents evidence on the employment effects of recent minimum wage increases from a pre-specified research design that entailed committing to a detailed set of statistical analyses prior to 'going to' the data. Despite the limited data to which the pre-specified research design can be applied, evidence of disemployment effects of minimum wages is often found where we would most expect it--for younger, less-skilled workers.

Suggested Citation

  • David Neumark, 1999. "The Employment Effects of Recent Minimum Wage Increases: Evidence from a Pre-specified Research Design," NBER Working Papers 7171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:7171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lawrence Katz & Alan Krueger, 1992. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Fast Food Industry," Working Papers 678, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    2. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    3. David Card & Lawrence Katz & Alan Krueger, 1993. "Comment on David Neumark and William Wascher, 'Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws'," Working Papers 695, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    4. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1992. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Fast-Food Industry," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 6-21, October.
    5. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 22-37, October.
    6. Janet Currie & Bruce C. Fallick, 1996. "The Minimum Wage and the Employment of Youth Evidence from the NLSY," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 31(2), pages 404-428.
    7. Brown, Charles & Gilroy, Curtis & Kohen, Andrew, 1982. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on Employment and Unemployment," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 20(2), pages 487-528, June.
    8. Baker, Michael & Benjamin, Dwayne & Stanger, Shuchita, 1999. "The Highs and Lows of the Minimum Wage Effect: A Time-Series Cross-Section Study of the Canadian Law," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 17(2), pages 318-350, April.
    9. David Card, 1992. "Using Regional Variation in Wages to Measure the Effects of the Federal Minimum Wage," Working Papers 680, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    10. David Neumark & William Wascher, 1994. "Minimum Wage Effects and Low-Wage Labor Markets: A Disequilibrium Approach," NBER Working Papers 4617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. repec:fth:prinin:300 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Griliches, Zvi, 1977. "Estimating the Returns to Schooling: Some Econometric Problems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(1), pages 1-22, January.
    13. David Card & Lawrence Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1993. "Comment on David Neumark and William Wascher, "Employment Effects of Minimum and Subminimum Wages: Panel Data on State Minimum Wage Laws"," Working Papers 695, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    14. repec:fth:prinin:298 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Portugal & Ana Rute Cardoso, 2006. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Worker Accessions and Separations," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(5), pages 988-1013, September.
    2. Chang, Andrew C., 2018. "A replication recipe: List your ingredients before you start cooking," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-8.
    3. Andrew C. Chang & Trace J. Levinson, 2020. "Raiders of the Lost High-Frequency Forecasts: New Data and Evidence on the Efficiency of the Fed's Forecasting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-090, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Gail Pacheco & Vic Naiker, 2006. "Impact of the Minimum Wage on Expected Profits," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 469-490.
    5. Burlig, Fiona, 2018. "Improving transparency in observational social science research: A pre-analysis plan approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 56-60.
    6. Gordon Betcherman, 2000. "Structural Unemployment: How Important Are Labour Market Policies and Institutions?," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 26(s1), pages 131-140, July.
    7. Rebecca M. Blank & David T. Ellwood, 2001. "The Clinton Legacy for America's Poor," NBER Working Papers 8437, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chang, Andrew C., 2017. "A replication recipe: List your ingredients before you start cooking," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-74, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. David C. Ribar, 2003. "County-Level Estimates Of The Employment Prospects Of Low-Skill Workers," Research in Labor Economics, in: Worker Well-Being and Public Policy, pages 227-268, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Marit Hinnosaar & Tairi Room, 2003. "The impact of minimum wage on the labour market in Estonia: an empirical analysis," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2003-8, Bank of Estonia, revised 12 Oct 2003.
    11. Cardoso, Ana & Portugal, Pedro, 2001. "Disentangling the Minimum Wage Puzzle: An Analysis of Job Accessions and Separations from a Longitudinal Matched Employer-Emplo," CEPR Discussion Papers 2844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    JEL classification:

    • J38 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Public Policy

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