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Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference

Author

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  • Rodrigo Adão
  • Michal Kolesár
  • Eduardo Morales

Abstract

We study inference in shift-share regression designs, such as when a regional outcome is regressed on a weighted average of observed sectoral shocks, using regional sector shares as weights. We conduct a placebo exercise in which we estimate the effect of a shift-share regressor constructed with randomly generated sectoral shocks on actual labor market outcomes across U.S. Commuting Zones. Tests based on commonly used standard errors with 5% nominal significance level reject the null of no effect in up to 55% of the placebo samples. We use a stylized economic model to show that this overrejection problem arises because regression residuals are correlated across regions with similar sectoral shares, independently of their geographic location. We derive novel inference methods that are valid under arbitrary cross-regional correlation in the regression residuals. We show that our methods yield substantially wider confidence intervals in popular applications of shift-share regression designs.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Adão & Michal Kolesár & Eduardo Morales, 2018. "Shift-Share Designs: Theory and Inference," NBER Working Papers 24944, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24944
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    Cited by:

    1. Stemmler, Henry, 2019. "Does automation lead to de-industrialization in emerging economies? Evidence from Brazil," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 382, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    2. Feenstra, Robert C. & Ma, Hong & Xu, Yuan, 2019. "US exports and employment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 46-58.
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    4. Dreher, Axel & Langlotz, Sarah & Matzat, Johannes & Parsons, Christopher, 2020. "Immigration, Political Ideologies and the Polarization of American Politics," CEPR Discussion Papers 15587, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Imai, Masami, 2022. "Local economic impacts of legislative malapportionment," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    6. Baumgarten, Daniel & Lehwald, Sybille, 2019. "Trade Exposure and the Decline in Collective Bargaining: Evidence From Germany," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 165, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
    7. Nathaniel Baum-Snow & Daniel Hartley & Kwan Ok Lee, 2019. "The Long-Run Effects of Neighborhood Change on Incumbent Families," Working Paper Series WP-2019-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    8. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Malacrino, Davide & McQuade, Tim, 2022. "Who creates new firms when local opportunities arise?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 107-130.
    9. Federico, Stefano & Hassan, Fadi & Rappoport-Redondo, Veronica, 2019. "Trade shocks and credit reallocation," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 103422, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Bombardini, Matilde & Li, Bingjing, 2020. "Trade, pollution and mortality in China," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    11. Victor Simões Dornelas & Ariaster Baumgratz Chimeli, 2019. "China shock: environmental impacts in Brazil," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2019_29, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    12. Omar Barbiero, 2021. "The Valuation Effects of Trade," Working Papers 21-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Ager, Philipp & Abramitzky, Ran & Boustan, Leah & Cohen, Elior David & Hansen, Casper Worm, 2019. "The Effects of Immigration on the Economy: Lessons from the 1920s Border Closure," CEPR Discussion Papers 14165, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Christoph Albert & Joan Monràs, 2019. "The regional impact of economic shocks: Why immigration is different from import competition," Economics Working Papers 1758, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Dec 2020.
    15. Caselli, Mauro & Nesta, Lionel & Schiavo, Stefano, 2021. "Imports and labour market imperfections: Firm-level evidence from France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Gallego, Jorge & Maldonado, Stanislao & Trujillo, Lorena, 2020. "From curse to blessing? institutional reform and resource booms in Colombia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 174-193.
    17. Eriksson, Katherine & Russ, Katheryn N. & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Xu, Minfei, 2021. "Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    18. Büchler, Simon & Ehrlich, Maximilian v. & Schöni, Olivier, 2021. "The amplifying effect of capitalization rates on housing supply," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    19. Eriksson, Katherine & Russ, Katheryn N. & Shambaugh, Jay C. & Xu, Minfei, 2021. "Reprint: Trade shocks and the shifting landscape of U.S. manufacturing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Egger, Peter H. & Kaynak, Pinar & Zoller-Rydzek, Benedikt, 2020. "Indirect effects of trade shocks on Turkish local labor markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    21. Brad J. Hershbein & Bryan A. Stuart, 2020. "Recessions and Local Labor Market Hysteresis," Upjohn Working Papers 20-325, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    22. Eduardo Gutiérrez & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2019. "Trade and credit: revisiting the evidence," Working Papers 1901, Banco de España.
    23. Amuedo-Dorantes, Catalina & Arenas-Arroyo, Esther & Sevilla, Almudena, 2020. "Labor market impacts of states issuing of driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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