IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/30891.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Financial Integration

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Sy-Hoa Ho
  • Luu Duc Toan Huynh
  • Jamel Saadaoui
  • Gazi Salah Uddin

Abstract

The global financial crisis has brought increased attention to the consequences of international reserves holdings. In an era of high financial integration, we investigate the relationship between the real exchange rate and international reserves using nonlinear regressions and panel threshold regressions over 110 countries from 2001 to 2020. Our study shows the level of financial-institution development plays an essential role in explaining the buffer effect of international reserves. Countries with a low development of their financial institutions may manage the international reserves as a shield to deal with the negative consequences of terms-of-trade shocks on the real exchange rate. We also find the buffer effect is stronger in countries with intermediate levels of financial openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Sy-Hoa Ho & Luu Duc Toan Huynh & Jamel Saadaoui & Gazi Salah Uddin, 2023. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in the Era of Financial Integration," NBER Working Papers 30891, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30891
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w30891.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James R. Lothian & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod‐Balassa‐Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
    2. Joshua Aizenman & Daniel Riera-Crichton, 2008. "Real Exchange Rate and International Reserves in an Era of Growing Financial and Trade Integration," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(4), pages 812-815, November.
    3. Adler, Gustavo & Magud, Nicolas E. & Werner, Alejandro, 2018. "Terms-of-trade cycles and external adjustment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 103-122.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Ito, Hiro, 2015. "International reserves before and after the global crisis: Is there no end to hoarding?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 102-126.
    5. Caner, Mehmet & Hansen, Bruce E., 2004. "Instrumental Variable Estimation Of A Threshold Model," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(5), pages 813-843, October.
    6. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
    7. Alberola, Enrique & Erce, Aitor & Serena, José Maria, 2016. "International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 151-171.
    8. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    9. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    10. Ahmed, Rashad & Aizenman, Joshua & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "On the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    11. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf, 1994. "Terms of Trade, Productivity, and the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Working Papers 4807, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2007. "International Reserves: Precautionary Versus Mercantilist Views, Theory and Evidence," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 191-214, April.
    13. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carmen M Reinhart & Kenneth S Rogoff, 2019. "Exchange Arrangements Entering the Twenty-First Century: Which Anchor will Hold?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 134(2), pages 599-646.
    14. Kathryn M. E. Dominguez, 2010. "International Reserves and Underdeveloped Capital Markets," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2009, pages 193-221, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Cihak, Martin & Demirguc-Kunt, Asli & Feyen, Erik & Levine, Ross, 2012. "Benchmarking financial systems around the world," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6175, The World Bank.
    16. Aizenman, Joshua & Edwards, Sebastian & Riera-Crichton, Daniel, 2012. "Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 1990-2016.
    17. David Roodman, 2009. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 135-158, February.
    18. Steiner, Andreas & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2019. "Exit strategies, capital flight and speculative attacks: Europe's version of the trilemma," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 83-96.
    19. Luis Cabezas & José Gregorio, 2019. "Accumulation of reserves in emerging and developing countries: mercantilism versus insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 819-857, November.
    20. Olivier Jeanne & Romain Rancière, 2011. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves For Emerging Market Countries: A New Formula and Some Applications," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(555), pages 905-930, September.
    21. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2010. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 57-94, April.
    22. repec:bre:wpaper:46497 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Korinek, Anton & Servén, Luis, 2016. "Undervaluation through foreign reserve accumulation: Static losses, dynamic gains," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 104-136.
    24. Myung Hwan Seo & Sueyoul Kim & Young-Joo Kim, 2019. "Estimation of dynamic panel threshold model using Stata," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 19(3), pages 685-697, September.
    25. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Inference When a Nuisance Parameter Is Not Identified under the Null Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(2), pages 413-430, March.
    26. Vahagn Galstyan & Philip R. Lane, 2009. "The Composition of Government Spending and the Real Exchange Rate," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(6), pages 1233-1249, September.
    27. Michael B. Devereux & Steve Pak Yeung Wu, 2022. "Foreign Reserves Management and Original Sin," NBER Working Papers 30418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Steinkamp, Sven & Westermann, Frank, 2020. "Capital flight to Germany: Two alternative measures," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    29. Ouyang, Alice Y. & Rajan, Ramkishen S., 2013. "Real exchange rate fluctuations and the relative importance of nontradables," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 844-855.
    30. Eugenio Cerutti & Ricardo Correa & Elisabetta Fiorentino & Esther Segalla, 2017. "Changes in Prudential Policy Instruments - A New Cross-Country Database," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(2), pages 477-503, March.
    31. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    32. Steiner, Andreas, 2017. "Central banks and macroeconomic policy choices: Relaxing the trilemma," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 283-299.
    33. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    34. Ben-Bassat, Avraham & Gottlieb, Daniel, 1992. "On the Effect of Opportunity Cost on International Reserve Holdings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(2), pages 329-332, May.
    35. Al-Abri, Almukhtar, 2013. "Real exchange rate volatility, terms-of-trade shocks, and financial integration in primary-commodity exporting economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 126-129.
    36. Atish R. Ghosh & Jonathan D. Ostry & Charalambos G. Tsangarides, 2017. "Shifting Motives: Explaining the Buildup in Official Reserves in Emerging Markets Since the 1980s," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 65(2), pages 308-364, June.
    37. Aizenman, Joshua & Hutchison, Michael M., 2012. "Exchange market pressure and absorption by international reserves: Emerging markets and fear of reserve loss during the 2008–2009 crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1076-1091.
    38. Jushan Bai, 2009. "Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(4), pages 1229-1279, July.
    39. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak & Donghyun Park, 2015. "Financial Development and Output Growth in Developing Asia and Latin America: A Comparative Sectoral Analysis," NBER Working Papers 20917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    40. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    41. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    42. Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2021. "Endogenous corporate leverage response to a safer macro environment: The case of foreign exchange reserve accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    43. Cezar, Rafael & Monnet, Eric, 2023. "Capital controls and foreign reserves against external shocks: Combined or alone?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    44. Levy, Victor, 1983. "Demand for international reserves and exchange-rate intervention policy in an adjustable-peg economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 89-101.
    45. Stephanie Kremer & Alexander Bick & Dieter Nautz, 2013. "Inflation and growth: new evidence from a dynamic panel threshold analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 861-878, April.
    46. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2002. "Capital Account Liberalization, Institutions and Financial Development: Cross Country Evidence," NBER Working Papers 8967, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    47. Aqib Aslam & Samya Beidas-Strom & Mr. Rudolfs Bems & Oya Celasun & Zsoka Koczan, 2016. "Trading on Their Terms? Commodity Exporters in the Aftermath of the Commodity Boom," IMF Working Papers 2016/027, International Monetary Fund.
    48. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    49. Yavuz Arslan & Carlos Cantú, 2019. "The size of foreign exchange reserves," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Reserve management and FX intervention, volume 104, pages 1-23, Bank for International Settlements.
    50. Joshua Aizenman & Yothin Jinjarak, 2020. "Hoarding for stormy days—Test of international reserves adjustment providing financial buffer stock services," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 656-675, August.
    51. Katsiaryna Svirydzenka, 2016. "Introducing a New Broad-based Index of Financial Development," IMF Working Papers 2016/005, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ahmed, Rashad & Aizenman, Joshua & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "On the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    2. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mighri, Hamza & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: New evidence of buffer effects in Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan A. & Saadaoui, Jamel & Salah Uddin, Gazi, 2024. "The performance of emerging markets during the Fed’s easing and tightening cycles: A cross-country resilience analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    4. Jorge Carrera & Gabriel Montes-Rojas & Mariquena Solla & Fernando Toledo, 2023. "Does Income Inequality Affect Capital Flows? Evidence from Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," Working Papers 268, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Luis Cabezas & José Gregorio, 2019. "Accumulation of reserves in emerging and developing countries: mercantilism versus insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 819-857, November.
    2. Luis Cabezas & José De Gregorio, 2018. "Accumulation of Reserves in Emerging and Developing Countries: Mercantilism vs. Insurance," Working Papers wp467, University of Chile, Department of Economics.
    3. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    4. Jean‐Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2019. "Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 680-710, March.
    5. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "The accumulation of foreign exchange by central banks: Fear of capital mobility?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 409-427.
    6. Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    7. Renliang Liu & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "What Drives Illicit Financial Flows? An Empirical Study of Trade Data Discrepancies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(2), pages 371-409, April.
    8. Ho, Sy-Hoa & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2022. "Bank credit and economic growth: A dynamic threshold panel model for ASEAN countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 170(C), pages 115-128.
    9. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Qian, XingWang, 2020. "The currency composition of international reserves, demand for international reserves, and global safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    10. Cristian Camilo Porras-Alarcón, 2020. "Una aproximación a los determinantes de acumulación de reservas internacionales en economías emergentes," Borradores de Economia 1126, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Audrey Sallenave & Jean-Pierre Allegret & Tolga Omay, 2024. "Can governments sleep more soundly when holding international reserves? A banking and financial vulnerabilities perspective," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(15), pages 1748-1762, March.
    12. Javid Suleymanli, 2022. "Differences in the Determinants of National Reserves across G7 and Rising Power Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 431-443, March.
    13. Steiner, Andreas, 2013. "How central banks prepare for financial crises – An empirical analysis of the effects of crises and globalisation on international reserves," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 208-234.
    14. Hur, Sewon & Kondo, Illenin O., 2016. "A theory of rollover risk, sudden stops, and foreign reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 44-63.
    15. Javier Bianchi & Juan Carlos Hatchondo & Leonardo Martinez, 2018. "International Reserves and Rollover Risk," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2629-2670, September.
    16. Benigno, Gianluca & Fornaro, Luca & Wolf, Martin, 2022. "Reserve accumulation, growth and financial crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    17. Cheng, Gong, 2015. "Balance sheet effects, foreign reserves and public policies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 146-165.
    18. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2018. "The role of international reserves holding in buffering external shocks," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(29), pages 3128-3147, June.
    19. Fatum, Rasmus & Hattori, Takahiro & Yamamoto, Yohei, 2023. "Reserves and risk: Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Woo Jin Choi & Ju Hyun Pyun & Youngjin Yun, 2020. "Reserve Accumulation and Firm Investment: Evidence from Matched Bank–Firm Data," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_027, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:30891. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.