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Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate

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  • Choi, Woo Jin
  • Taylor, Alan M.

Abstract

We document a new international stylized fact on the relationship between external wealth, capital controls, and the real exchange rate. We first re-confirm that the real exchange rate appreciates when external asset holdings increase, all else equal, a central mechanism in international economics. However, we find that increases in publicly held external assets (reserves) are associated with depreciation, especially if combined with high capital controls. Reserve accumulation is also associated with a larger trade surplus, and higher GDP and TFP growth, in countries with high capital controls. The results hold using an instrumental variable for reserves based on commodity export surrender requirements. A simple rationale is presented to account for the new fact: combined reserves and capital controls can affect trade balances via undervaluation (mercantilist motive), while reserve increases without controls can insure against crises (precautionary motive) independently of real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Choi, Woo Jin & Taylor, Alan M., 2022. "Precaution versus mercantilism: Reserve accumulation, capital controls, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:inecon:v:139:y:2022:i:c:s0022199622000812
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103649
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    2. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Nicolás Oviedo, 2022. "Deficit fiscal y tipo de cambio fijo: racionalizando una combinación insostenible," Young Researchers Working Papers 3, Universidad de San Andres, Departamento de Economia, revised Oct 2022.
    4. Bergin, Paul R., 2022. "Currency undervaluation and comparative advantage," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    5. Michael Fidora & Claire Giordano & Martin Schmitz, 2021. "Real Exchange Rate Misalignments in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 71-107, February.
    6. Mika Nieminen, 2017. "Patterns of international capital flows and their implications for developing countries," WIDER Working Paper Series 171, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Luis Cabezas & José Gregorio, 2019. "Accumulation of reserves in emerging and developing countries: mercantilism versus insurance," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(4), pages 819-857, November.
    8. Jean‐Pierre Allegret & Audrey Allegret, 2019. "Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(3), pages 680-710, March.
    9. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2019. "A new approach to estimation of actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," MPRA Paper 95280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Woo Jin Choi & Ju Hyun Pyun & Youngjin Yun, 2020. "Reserve Accumulation and Firm Investment: Evidence from Matched Bank–Firm Data," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2020_027, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
    11. Dąbrowski, Marek A., 2021. "A novel approach to the estimation of an actively managed component of foreign exchange reserves," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 83-95.
    12. Lee, Sang Seok & Luk, Paul, 2018. "The Asian Financial Crisis and international reserve accumulation: A robust control approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 284-309.
    13. Daniel Fried, 2023. "The U.S. Dollar as an International Currency and Its Economic Effects: Working Paper 2023-04," Working Papers 58764, Congressional Budget Office.
    14. Tullio Gregori & Marco Giansoldati, 2023. "Do current and capital account liberalizations affect economic growth in the long run?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(1), pages 247-273, July.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International reserves; Capital controls; Real exchange rates; Trade; Economic growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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