IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/32303.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Performance of Emerging Markets During the Fed’s Easing and Tightening Cycles: A Cross-Country Resilience Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Aizenman
  • Donghyun Park
  • Irfan A. Qureshi
  • Gazi Salah Uddin
  • Jamel Saadaoui

Abstract

We investigate the determinants of emerging markets performance during five U.S. Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles during 2004 - 2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an Emerging Market (EM) at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience during each cycle. More specifically, our baseline cross-sectional regressions examine how those conditions affect three measures of resilience, namely bilateral exchange rate against the USD, exchange rate market pressure, and country-specific Morgan Stanley Capital International index (MSCI). We then stack the five cross-sections to build a panel database to investigate potential asymmetry between tightening versus easing cycles. Our evidence indicates that macroeconomic and institutional variables are associated with EM performance, determinants of resilience differ during tightening versus easing cycles, and institutions matter more during difficult times. Our specific findings are largely consistent with economic intuition. For instance, we find that current account balance, international reserves, and inflation are all important determinants of EM resilience.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Aizenman & Donghyun Park & Irfan A. Qureshi & Gazi Salah Uddin & Jamel Saadaoui, 2024. "The Performance of Emerging Markets During the Fed’s Easing and Tightening Cycles: A Cross-Country Resilience Analysis," NBER Working Papers 32303, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32303
    Note: IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w32303.pdf
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text is generally limited to series subscribers, however if the top level domain of the client browser is in a developing country or transition economy free access is provided. More information about subscriptions and free access is available at http://www.nber.org/wwphelp.html. Free access is also available to older working papers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coulibaly, Issiaka & Gnimassoun, Blaise & Mighri, Hamza & Saadaoui, Jamel, 2024. "International reserves, currency depreciation and public debt: New evidence of buffer effects in Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Goldberg, Linda S. & Krogstrup, Signe, 2023. "International capital flow pressures and global factors," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Aizenman, Joshua & Ho, Sy-Hoa & Huynh, Luu Duc Toan & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2024. "Real exchange rate and international reserves in the era of financial integration," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
    5. Luc Laeven & Fabian Valencia, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database II," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(2), pages 307-361, June.
    6. Fratzscher, Marcel & Grosse-Steffen, Christoph & Rieth, Malte, 2020. "Inflation targeting as a shock absorber," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    7. Jing Cynthia Wu & Fan Dora Xia, 2016. "Measuring the Macroeconomic Impact of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(2-3), pages 253-291, March.
    8. Georgiadis, Georgios & Müller, Gernot J. & Schumann, Ben, 2024. "Global risk and the dollar," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    9. Chinn, Menzie D. & Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Ito, Hiro, 2024. "The dollar versus the euro as international reserve currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    10. Laeven, Luc & Valencia, Fabian, 2020. "Systemic Banking Crises Database: A Timely Update in COVID-19 Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 14569, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Ahmed, Shaghil & Coulibaly, Brahima & Zlate, Andrei, 2017. "International financial spillovers to emerging market economies: How important are economic fundamentals?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 133-152.
    12. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin & Park, Donghyun, 2011. "International reserves and swap lines: Substitutes or complements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 5-18, January.
    13. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    14. Walerych, Małgorzata & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2021. "Fed and ECB monetary policy spillovers to Emerging Market Economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Hashimoto, Yuko & Ito, Takatoshi, 2012. "International reserves and the global financial crisis," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 388-406.
    16. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Sudden Stops and Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 405-410, May.
    17. Rey, Hélène, 2015. "Dilemma not Trilemma: The Global Financial Cycle and Monetary Policy Independence," CEPR Discussion Papers 10591, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Ben S. Bernanke & Vincent R. Reinhart, 2004. "Conducting Monetary Policy at Very Low Short-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 85-90, May.
    19. Caldara, Dario & Ferrante, Francesco & Iacoviello, Matteo & Prestipino, Andrea & Queralto, Albert, 2024. "The international spillovers of synchronous monetary tightening," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 127-152.
    20. Joshua Aizenman & Menzie David Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2013. "The “Impossible Trinity” Hypothesis in an Era of Global Imbalances: Measurement and Testing," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 447-458, August.
    21. Sebastian Horn & Bradley C. Parks & Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "China as an International Lender of Last Resort," NBER Working Papers 31105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Linda S. Goldberg & Oliver Zain Hannaoui, 2024. "Drivers of Dollar Share in Foreign Exchange Reserves," Staff Reports 1087, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Bräuning, Falk & Ivashina, Victoria, 2020. "U.S. monetary policy and emerging market credit cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 57-76.
    24. Ms. Prachi Mishra & Mr. Kenji Moriyama & Mr. Papa M N'Diaye & Lam Nguyen, 2014. "Impact of Fed Tapering Announcements on Emerging Markets," IMF Working Papers 2014/109, International Monetary Fund.
    25. Roberto Alvarez & José De Gregorio, 2014. "Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and the Global Financial Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(4), pages 494-525, November.
    26. Hoek, Jasper & Kamin, Steve & Yoldas, Emre, 2022. "Are higher U.S. interest rates always bad news for emerging markets?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    27. Mark Choi & Linda S. Goldberg & Robert Lerman & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2022. "The Fed’s Central Bank Swap Lines and FIMA Repo Facility," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 28(1), July.
    28. Olivier Blanchard & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia & Paolo Mauro, 2010. "Rethinking Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(s1), pages 199-215, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Javid Suleymanli, 2022. "Differences in the Determinants of National Reserves across G7 and Rising Power Countries," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 12(2), pages 431-443, March.
    2. Ahmed, Rashad & Aizenman, Joshua & Saadaoui, Jamel & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2023. "On the effectiveness of foreign exchange reserves during the 2021-22 U.S. monetary tightening cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    3. Chokri Zehri, 2023. "Macro‐management policies: A supporting role to company' capital expenditure," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 3846-3864, October.
    4. Lu, Dong & Liu, Jialin & Zhou, Hang, 2022. "Global financial conditions, capital flows and the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    5. Dongwon Lee, 2023. "International cooperation in foreign reserve policies in the presence of competitive hoarding," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(2), pages 389-412, May.
    6. Nasir, Muhammad Ali, 2021. "Zero Lower Bound and negative interest rates: Choices for monetary policy in the UK," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 200-229.
    7. Bank for International Settlements, 2021. "Changing patterns of capital flows," CGFS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 66, October –.
    8. Davis, J. Scott & Devereux, Michael B. & Yu, Changhua, 2023. "Sudden stops and optimal foreign exchange intervention," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    9. Ahmed, Rashad, 2021. "Monetary policy spillovers under intermediate exchange rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    10. Pauline Avril & Gregory Levieuge & Camelia Turcu, 2021. "Natural Disasters and Financial Stress: Can Macroprudential Regulation Tame Green Swans?," Working Papers 2021.13, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    11. Gong, Di & Xu, Jiajun & Yan, Jianye, 2023. "National development banks and loan contract terms: Evidence from syndicated loans," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    12. Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2022. "Managing External Volatility: Policy Frameworks in Non-Reserve-Issuing Economies," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 4(3), pages 60-98, April.
    13. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2015. "Monetary policy options for mitigating the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 409-431.
    14. Leonardo Villar-Gómez & Javier Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Wilmar Cabrera & Hernando Vargas, 2023. "The monetary and macroprudential policy framework in Colombia in the last 30 years: lessons learnt and challenges for the future," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Central banking in the Americas: Lessons from two decades, volume 127, pages 87-112, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Gimet, Céline, 2013. "The impacts of standard monetary and budgetary policies on liquidity and financial markets: International evidence from the credit freeze crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4599-4614.
    16. Herradi, Mehdi El & Leroy, Aurélien, 2022. "The rich, poor, and middle class: Banking crises and income distribution," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    17. Coman, Andra & Lloyd, Simon P., 2022. "In the face of spillovers: Prudential policies in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    18. Janus, Jakub, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and long-term interest rates in emerging market economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    19. Margaux MacDonald & Michał Ksawery Popiel, 2020. "Unconventional Monetary Policy in a Small Open Economy," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(5), pages 1061-1115, November.
    20. Maximilian Grimm, 2024. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Systemic Bank Funding Stability," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 341, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:32303. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.