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The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel

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  • Jan Bena
  • Serdar Dinc
  • Isil Erel

Abstract

We study how non-financial multinational companies propagate economic declines from their subsidiaries located in countries experiencing an economic downturn to subsidiaries in countries not experiencing one. We find that investment is 18% lower in subsidiaries of these parents relative to the same-industry, same-country subsidiaries of parents that are headquartered in the same parent country but do not have a subsidiary in a country experiencing an economic downturn. The employment growth rate in the affected subsidiaries is zero or negative while it is 1.4% in the subsidiaries of unaffected parents. The aggregate industry-level sales and employment are also negatively impacted in the countries of the affected subsidiaries.

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  • Jan Bena & Serdar Dinc & Isil Erel, 2020. "The International Propagation of Economic Downturns Through Multinational Companies: The Real Economy Channel," NBER Working Papers 27873, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27873
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    3. Antonio De Vito & Martin Jacob & Dirk Schindler & Guosong Xu, 2023. "How Do Corporate Tax Hikes Affect Investment Allocation within Multinationals?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10272, CESifo.
    4. Junsheng Zhang & Xuefeng Jing & Yue Qi, 2024. "Disclosure frequency of parent company financial reporting: Insights from analyst forecasting accuracy," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 64(4), pages 3657-3683, December.
    5. Lionel Fontagné & Gianluca Santoni, 2022. "Regional Diffusion of Foreign Demand Shocks Through Trade and Ownership Networks," Working Papers 2022-08, CEPII research center.
    6. Liang, Chen & Zhu, Minghao & Lee, Peter K.C. & Cheng, T.C.E. & Yeung, Andy C.L., 2024. "Combating extreme weather through operations management: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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