IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocaae/v12y2016i1p89-110.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

CEO confidence and stock returns

Author

Listed:
  • Bharati, Rakesh
  • Doellman, Thomas
  • Fu, Xudong

Abstract

Consistent with the theoretical predictions of Goel and Thakor (2008), we find that overconfident CEOs create significant value for the firm through superior stock return performance and take more risk, compared to their non-overconfident counterparts. We also differentiate between innovative and non-innovative industries and find for each subsample that overconfident CEOs create firm value. We find these results even when we control for founder CEOs as they add value and make similar corporate policy decisions as overconfident CEOs. Finally, consistent with the predictions of Goel and Thakor (2008), we find that overconfident CEOs are hired less frequently, take less risk, and add less value after the enactment of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act in 2002, which put in place strict penalties for poor quality information disclosures by corporations. This finding has significant implications for empirical study as this paper provides evidence of the important impact the Sarbanes–Oxley Act has on the relation between CEO overconfidence and firm policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Bharati, Rakesh & Doellman, Thomas & Fu, Xudong, 2016. "CEO confidence and stock returns," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 89-110.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocaae:v:12:y:2016:i:1:p:89-110
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcae.2016.02.006
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1815566916000072
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcae.2016.02.006?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mitchell, Mark L & Stafford, Erik, 2000. "Managerial Decisions and Long-Term Stock Price Performance," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73(3), pages 287-329, July.
    2. Feng, Mei & Ge, Weili & Luo, Shuqing & Shevlin, Terry, 2011. "Why do CFOs become involved in material accounting manipulations?," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 21-36.
    3. Cronqvist, Henrik & Makhija, Anil K. & Yonker, Scott E., 2012. "Behavioral consistency in corporate finance: CEO personal and corporate leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 20-40.
    4. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate, 2005. "CEO Overconfidence and Corporate Investment," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2661-2700, December.
    5. Hall, Brian J. & Murphy, Kevin J., 2002. "Stock options for undiversified executives," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-42, February.
    6. Anand M. Goel & Anjan V. Thakor, 2008. "Overconfidence, CEO Selection, and Corporate Governance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2737-2784, December.
    7. Sheng-Syan Chen & Keng-Yu Ho & Po-Hsin Ho, 2014. "CEO Overconfidence and Long-Term Performance Following R&D Increases," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 245-269, June.
    8. Matthew T. Billett & Yiming Qian, 2008. "Are Overconfident CEOs Born or Made? Evidence of Self-Attribution Bias from Frequent Acquirers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1037-1051, June.
    9. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:6:p:1839-1885 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Malmendier, Ulrike & Tate, Geoffrey, 2008. "Who makes acquisitions? CEO overconfidence and the market's reaction," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 20-43, July.
    11. Simon Gervais & J. B. Heaton & Terrance Odean, 2011. "Overconfidence, Compensation Contracts, and Capital Budgeting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1735-1777, October.
    12. Fahlenbrach, Rüdiger, 2009. "Founder-CEOs, Investment Decisions, and Stock Market Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(2), pages 439-466, April.
    13. Brian J. Hall & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1998. "Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 653-691.
    14. Graham, John R. & Harvey, Campbell R. & Puri, Manju, 2013. "Managerial attitudes and corporate actions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(1), pages 103-121.
    15. Schrand, Catherine M. & Zechman, Sarah L.C., 2012. "Executive overconfidence and the slippery slope to financial misreporting," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 311-329.
    16. Puri, Manju & Robinson, David T., 2007. "Optimism and economic choice," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(1), pages 71-99, October.
    17. Alberto Galasso & Timothy S. Simcoe, 2011. "CEO Overconfidence and Innovation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1469-1484, August.
    18. Huang, Jiekun & Kisgen, Darren J., 2013. "Gender and corporate finance: Are male executives overconfident relative to female executives?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(3), pages 822-839.
    19. Bansal, Naresh & Seetharaman, Ananth & Wang, Xu (Frank), 2013. "Managerial risk-taking incentives and non-GAAP earnings disclosures," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 100-121.
    20. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    21. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    22. Deshmukh, Sanjay & Goel, Anand M. & Howe, Keith M., 2013. "CEO overconfidence and dividend policy," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 440-463.
    23. J B Heaton, 2002. "Managerial Optimism and Corporate Finance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 31(2), Summer.
    24. David Hirshleifer & Angie Low & Siew Hong Teoh, 2012. "Are Overconfident CEOs Better Innovators?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1457-1498, August.
    25. Marianne Bertrand & Antoinette Schoar, 2003. "Managing with Style: The Effect of Managers on Firm Policies," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(4), pages 1169-1208.
    26. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    27. Itzhak Ben-David & John R. Graham & Campbell R. Harvey, 2007. "Managerial Overconfidence and Corporate Policies," NBER Working Papers 13711, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Hackbarth, Dirk, 2008. "Managerial Traits and Capital Structure Decisions," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(4), pages 843-881, December.
    29. John Core & Wayne Guay, 2002. "Estimating the Value of Employee Stock Option Portfolios and Their Sensitivities to Price and Volatility," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 613-630, June.
    30. Tim Loughran & Jay Ritter, 2004. "Why Has IPO Underpricing Changed Over Time?," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 33(3), Fall.
    31. Weili GE & Dawn Matsumoto & Jenny Li Zhang, 2011. "Do CFOs Have Style? An Empirical Investigation of the Effect of Individual CFOs on Accounting Practices," Contemporary Accounting Research, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(4), pages 1141-1179, December.
    32. Coles, Jeffrey L. & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naveen, Lalitha, 2006. "Managerial incentives and risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 431-468, February.
    33. Bettis, J. Carr & Bizjak, John M. & Lemmon, Michael L., 2005. "Exercise behavior, valuation, and the incentive effects of employee stock options," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 445-470, May.
    34. Carpenter, Jennifer N & Remmers, Barbara, 2001. "Executive Stock Option Exercises and Inside Information," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74(4), pages 513-534, October.
    35. Campbell, T. Colin & Gallmeyer, Michael & Johnson, Shane A. & Rutherford, Jessica & Stanley, Brooke W., 2011. "CEO optimism and forced turnover," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 695-712, September.
    36. Ulrike Malmendier & Geoffrey Tate & Jon Yan, 2011. "Overconfidence and Early‐Life Experiences: The Effect of Managerial Traits on Corporate Financial Policies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(5), pages 1687-1733, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Jing & Ho, Keng-Yu & Ho, Po-Hsin & Ko, Kuan-Cheng, 2023. "CEO overconfidence, lottery preference and the cross-section of stock returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    2. Aabo, Tom & Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul & Trigeorgis, Lenos & Wulff, Jesper N., 2024. "CEO personality traits, strategic flexibility, and firm dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    3. Aabo, Tom & Hanousek, Jan & Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul, 2023. "CEO personality traits and corporate value implication of acquisitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 86-106.
    4. Tang, Hui-Wen & Chang, Chong-Chuo, 2024. "CEO overconfidence, risk-taking, and firm value: Influence of incentive compensation and financial constraints," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(PA).
    5. Runesson, Emmeli & Samani, Niuosha, 2023. "Goodwill or “No-will”: Hubris in the tone at the top," Journal of Contemporary Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Deshmukh, Sanjay & Goel, Anand M. & Howe, Keith M., 2021. "Do CEO beliefs affect corporate cash holdings?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. Adam, Tim R. & Burg, Valentin & Scheinert, Tobias & Streitz, Daniel, 2014. "Managerial Optimism and Debt Contract Design: The Case of Syndicated Loans," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 475, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    3. Malmendier, Ulrike M. & Pezone, Vincenzo & Zheng, Hui, 2020. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," CEPR Discussion Papers 14929, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Tim R. Adam & Valentin Burg & Tobias Scheinert & Daniel Streitz, 2020. "Managerial Biases and Debt Contract Design: The Case of Syndicated Loans," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 352-375, January.
    5. Kaplan, Steven N. & Sørensen, Morten & Zakolyukina, Anastasia A., 2022. "What is CEO overconfidence? Evidence from executive assessments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 409-425.
    6. Ulrike Malmendier & Vincenzo Pezone & Hui Zheng, 2023. "Managerial Duties and Managerial Biases," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(6), pages 3174-3201, June.
    7. Ferreira, Daniel & Athanasakou, Vasiliki & Goh, Lisa, 2017. "Changes in CEO Stock Option Grants: A Look at the Numbers," CEPR Discussion Papers 12318, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Winifred Huang-Meier & Neophytos Lambertides & James M. Steeley, 2016. "Motives for corporate cash holdings: the CEO optimism effect," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 699-732, October.
    9. Lin, Chih-Yung & Chen, Yehning & Ho, Po-Hsin & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2020. "CEO overconfidence and bank loan contracting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Aktas, Nihat & Louca, Christodoulos & Petmezas, Dimitris, 2019. "CEO overconfidence and the value of corporate cash holdings," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 85-106.
    11. Sen, Rik & Tumarkin, Robert, 2015. "Stocking up: Executive optimism, option exercise, and share retention," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 399-430.
    12. Otto, Clemens A., 2014. "CEO optimism and incentive compensation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 366-404.
    13. Danso, Albert & Lartey, Theophilus & Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph & Adomako, Samuel & Lu, Qinye & Uddin, Moshfique, 2019. "Market sentiment and firm investment decision-making," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Athanasakou, Vasiliki & Ferreira, Daniel & Goh, Lisa, 2022. "Changes in CEO stock option grants: a look at the numbers," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 115609, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Athanasakou, Vasiliki & Ferreira, Daniel & Goh, Lisa, 2022. "Changes in CEO stock option grants: A look at the numbers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    16. Tobias Heizer & Laura R. Rettig, 2020. "Top management team optimism and its influence on firms' financing and investment decisions," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(4), pages 601-622, October.
    17. Chen, Sheng-Syan & Ho, Keng-Yu & Ho, Po-Hsin & Nie, Wei-Ying, 2022. "CEO overconfidence and bondholder wealth effects: Evidence from mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Lee, Jin-Ping & Lin, Edward M.H. & Lin, James Juichia & Zhao, Yang, 2020. "Bank systemic risk and CEO overconfidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    19. Jie Chen & Woon Sau Leung & Wei Song & Marc Goergen, 2018. "Why female board representation matters: The role of female directors in reducing male CEO overconfidence in corporate decisions," Working Papers 2018-12, Swansea University, School of Management.
    20. Tuck Siong Chung & Angie Low & Roland T. Rust, 2023. "Executive confidence and myopic marketing management," Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Springer, vol. 51(5), pages 1118-1142, September.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocaae:v:12:y:2016:i:1:p:89-110. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-contemporary-accounting-and-economics .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.