IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/26917.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City

Author

Listed:
  • Jeffrey E. Harris

Abstract

New York City has been rightly characterized as the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. Just one month after the first cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the city, the burden of infected individuals with serious complications of COVID-19 has already outstripped the capacity of many of the city’s hospitals. As in the case of most pandemics, scientists and public officials don’t have complete, accurate, real-time data on the path of new infections. Despite these data inadequacies, there already appears to be sufficient evidence to conclude that the curve in New York City is indeed flattening. The purpose of this report is to set forth the evidence for – and against – this preliminary but potentially important conclusion. Having examined the evidence, we then inquire: if the curve is indeed flattening, do we know what caused to it to level off?

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City," NBER Working Papers 26917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26917
    Note: EH
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w26917.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Byung-Kwang Yoo & Megumi Kasajima & Jay Bhattacharya, 2010. "Public Avoidance and the Epidemiology of novel H1N1 Influenza A," NBER Working Papers 15752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Geospatial Analysis of the September 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin – Madison: Did a Cluster of Local Bars Play a Critical Role?," NBER Working Papers 28132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lou, Jiehong & Shen, Xingchi & Niemeier, Deb, 2020. "Are stay-at-home orders more difficult to follow for low-income groups?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Zhihan Cui & Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther & Lu Liu, 2021. "The Political Economy of Responses to COVID-19 in the U.S.A," NBER Working Papers 28578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Borjas, George J., 2020. "Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods," IZA Discussion Papers 13115, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Albæk, Karsten, 2021. "Covid-19 epidemien i Vesteuropa: betydningen af befolkningstæthed, andel ældre og tillid for dødelighed og økonomisk aktivitet Covid-19," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2021(1), pages 1-17.
    7. Ariadna García-Prado & Paula González & Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2024. "Confinement policies: controlling contagion without compromising mental health," Working Papers 24.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    8. Zhihan Cui & Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2020. "Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping," NBER Working Papers 27124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ruchi Avtar & Rajashri Chakrabarti & Lindsay Meyerson & William Nober & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2020. "The Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," Staff Reports 948, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," NBER Working Papers 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Albæk, Karsten, 2021. "Covid-19 epidemien i Vesteuropa: betydningen af befolkningstæthed, andel ældre og tillid for dødelighed og økonomisk aktivitet," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2021(1), pages 1-17.
    12. James H Fowler & Seth J Hill & Remy Levin & Nick Obradovich, 2021. "Stay-at-home orders associate with subsequent decreases in COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, June.
    13. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For," NBER Working Papers 27166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
    15. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1019-1037, December.
    16. James H. Fowler & Seth J. Hill & Remy Levin & Nick Obradovich, 2020. "The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States," Papers 2004.06098, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wei Zhong, 2017. "Simulating influenza pandemic dynamics with public risk communication and individual responsive behavior," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 475-495, December.
    2. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.
    3. Christopher Blackburn & Juan Moreno-Cruz, 2021. "Work Context and Industrial Composition Determine the Epidemiological Responses in a Multi-Group SIR Model," BEA Working Papers 0185, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    4. Wei Zhong & Yushim Kim & Megan Jehn, 2013. "Modeling dynamics of an influenza pandemic with heterogeneous coping behaviors: case study of a 2009 H1N1 outbreak in Arizona," Computational and Mathematical Organization Theory, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 622-645, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26917. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.