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The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City

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  • Jeffrey E. Harris

Abstract

New York City has been rightly characterized as the epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic in the United States. Just one month after the first cases of coronavirus infection were reported in the city, the burden of infected individuals with serious complications of COVID-19 has already outstripped the capacity of many of the city’s hospitals. As in the case of most pandemics, scientists and public officials don’t have complete, accurate, real-time data on the path of new infections. Despite these data inadequacies, there already appears to be sufficient evidence to conclude that the curve in New York City is indeed flattening. The purpose of this report is to set forth the evidence for – and against – this preliminary but potentially important conclusion. Having examined the evidence, we then inquire: if the curve is indeed flattening, do we know what caused to it to level off?

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City," NBER Working Papers 26917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26917
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Byung-Kwang Yoo & Megumi Kasajima & Jay Bhattacharya, 2010. "Public Avoidance and the Epidemiology of novel H1N1 Influenza A," NBER Working Papers 15752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Geospatial Analysis of the September 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin – Madison: Did a Cluster of Local Bars Play a Critical Role?," NBER Working Papers 28132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lou, Jiehong & Shen, Xingchi & Niemeier, Deb, 2020. "Are stay-at-home orders more difficult to follow for low-income groups?," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    3. Zhihan Cui & Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther & Lu Liu, 2021. "The Political Economy of Responses to COVID-19 in the U.S.A," NBER Working Papers 28578, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Garriga, Carlos & Manuelli, Rody & Sanghi, Siddhartha, 2022. "Optimal management of an epidemic: Lockdown, vaccine and value of life," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Borjas, George J., 2020. "Demographic Determinants of Testing Incidence and COVID-19 Infections in New York City Neighborhoods," IZA Discussion Papers 13115, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Albæk, Karsten, 2021. "Covid-19 epidemien i Vesteuropa: betydningen af befolkningstæthed, andel ældre og tillid for dødelighed og økonomisk aktivitet Covid-19," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2021(1), pages 1-17.
    7. Ariadna García-Prado & Paula González & Yolanda F. Rebollo-Sanz, 2024. "Confinement policies: controlling contagion without compromising mental health," Working Papers 24.03, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
    8. Zhihan Cui & Geoffrey Heal & Howard Kunreuther, 2020. "Covid-19, Shelter-In Place Strategies and Tipping," NBER Working Papers 27124, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Ruchi Avtar & Rajashri Chakrabarti & Lindsay Meyerson & William Nober & Maxim L. Pinkovskiy, 2020. "The Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Regression Discontinuity Analysis," Staff Reports 948, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    10. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Fisher Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," NBER Working Papers 27007, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Albæk, Karsten, 2021. "Covid-19 epidemien i Vesteuropa: betydningen af befolkningstæthed, andel ældre og tillid for dødelighed og økonomisk aktivitet," Nationaløkonomisk tidsskrift, Nationaløkonomisk Forening, vol. 2021(1), pages 1-17.
    12. James H Fowler & Seth J Hill & Remy Levin & Nick Obradovich, 2021. "Stay-at-home orders associate with subsequent decreases in COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, June.
    13. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For," NBER Working Papers 27166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christopher Avery & William Bossert & Adam Thomas Clark & Glenn Ellison & Sara Ellison, 2020. "Policy Implications of Models of the Spread of Coronavirus: Perspectives and Opportunities for Economists," CESifo Working Paper Series 8293, CESifo.
    15. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1019-1037, December.
    16. James H. Fowler & Seth J. Hill & Remy Levin & Nick Obradovich, 2020. "The effect of stay-at-home orders on COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States," Papers 2004.06098, arXiv.org, revised May 2020.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy

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