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Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults

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  • Jeffrey E. Harris

    (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)

Abstract

We analyzed the daily incidence of newly reported COVID-19 cases among adults aged 20–39 years, 40–59 years, and 60 or more years in the sixteen most populous counties of the state of Florida from March 1 through June 27, 2020. In all 16 counties, an increase in reported COVID-19 case incidence was observed in all three age groups soon after the governor-ordered Full Phase 1 reopening went into effect. Trends in social mobility, but not trends in testing, track case incidence. Data on hospitalization do not support the hypothesis that the observed increase in case incidence was merely the result of liberalization of testing criteria. Parameter estimates from a parsimonious two-group heterogeneous SIR model strongly support the hypothesis that younger persons, having first acquired their infections through increasing social contact with their peers, then transmitted their infections to older, less socially mobile individuals. Without such cross-infection, an isolated epidemic among older people in Florida would be unsustainable.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Data from the COVID-19 epidemic in Florida suggest that younger cohorts have been transmitting their infections to less socially mobile older adults," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 1019-1037, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:reveho:v:18:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s11150-020-09496-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s11150-020-09496-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Coronavirus Epidemic Curve is Already Flattening in New York City," NBER Working Papers 26917, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Reopening Under COVID-19: What to Watch For," NBER Working Papers 27166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "The Subways Seeded the Massive Coronavirus Epidemic in New York City," NBER Working Papers 27021, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Glenn Ellison, 2020. "Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 27373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2020. "Geospatial Analysis of the September 2020 Coronavirus Outbreak at the University of Wisconsin – Madison: Did a Cluster of Local Bars Play a Critical Role?," NBER Working Papers 28132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Cristini, Annalisa & Trivin, Pedro, 2022. "Close encounters during a pandemic: Social habits and inter-generational links in the first two waves of COVID-19," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).
    3. Aparicio Fenoll, Ainoa & Grossbard, Shoshana, 2020. "Intergenerational residence patterns and Covid-19 fatalities in the EU and the US," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 39(C).
    4. Jeffrey E. Harris, 2021. "Los Angeles County SARS-CoV-2 Epidemic: Critical Role of Multi-generational Intra-household Transmission," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 55-83, April.
    5. Harris, Jeffrey E., 2020. "COVID-19, bar crowding, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court: A non-linear tale of two counties," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    6. Egor Malkov, 2021. "Spousal Occupational Sorting and COVID-19 Incidence: Evidence from the United States," Papers 2107.14350, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    7. Pensieroso, Luca & Sommacal, Alessandro & Spolverini, Gaia, 2023. "Intergenerational coresidence and the Covid-19 pandemic in the United States," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    8. INOUE Tomoo & OKIMOTO Tatsuyoshi, 2022. "Exploring the Dynamic Relationship between Mobility and the Spread of COVID-19, and the Role of Vaccines," Discussion papers 22011, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    9. George Davis, 2021. "The many ways COVID-19 affects households: consumption, time, and health outcomes," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 281-289, June.
    10. Michèle Belot & Syngjoo Choi & Egon Tripodi & Eline van den Broek-Altenburg & Julian C. Jamison & Nicholas W. Papageorge, 2021. "Unequal consequences of Covid 19: representative evidence from six countries," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 769-783, September.
    11. Rongxiang Rui & Maozai Tian & Man-Lai Tang & George To-Sum Ho & Chun-Ho Wu, 2021. "Analysis of the Spread of COVID-19 in the USA with a Spatio-Temporal Multivariate Time Series Model," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(2), pages 1-18, January.

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