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Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016

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  • Michael Geruso
  • Dean Spears
  • Ishaana Talesara

Abstract

Inversions—in which the popular vote winner loses the election—have occurred in four US presidential races. We show that rather than being statistical flukes, inversions have been ex ante likely since the early 1800s. In elections yielding a popular vote margin within one point (one-eighth of presidential elections), about 40% will be inversions in expectation. We show this conditional probability is remarkably stable across historical periods—despite differences in which groups voted, which states existed, and which parties participated. Our findings imply that the US has experienced so few inversions merely because there have been so few elections (and fewer close elections).

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Geruso & Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara, 2019. "Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016," NBER Working Papers 26247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:26247
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • K16 - Law and Economics - - Basic Areas of Law - - - Election Law

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