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Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment

Author

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  • Thomas A. C.

    (Visiting Assistant Professor, Department of ­Statistics, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, USA)

  • Gelman Andrew

    (Professor, Departments of Statistics and Political Science, Columbia University)

  • King Gary

    (Albert J. Weatherhead III University Professor, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA)

  • Katz Jonathan N.

    (Kay Sugahara Professor of Social Sciences and Statistics and Chair of the Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA)

Abstract

In the election for President of the United States, the Electoral College is the body whose members vote to elect the President directly. Each state sends a number of delegates equal to its total number of representatives and senators in Congress; all but two states (Nebraska and Maine) assign electors pledged to the candidate that wins the state’s plurality vote. We investigate the effect on presidential elections if states were to assign their electoral votes according to results in each congressional district, and conclude that the direct popular vote and the current electoral college are both substantially fairer compared to those alternatives where states would have divided their electoral votes by congressional district.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas A. C. & Gelman Andrew & King Gary & Katz Jonathan N., 2013. "Estimating Partisan Bias of the Electoral College Under Proposed Changes in Elector Apportionment," Statistics, Politics and Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-13, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:statpp:v:4:y:2013:i:1:p:1-13:n:3
    DOI: 10.1515/spp-2012-0001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. King, Gary & Browning, Robert X, 1987. "Democratic Representation and Partisan Bias in Congressional Elections," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(4), pages 1251-1273, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Geruso & Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara, 2019. "Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016," NBER Working Papers 26247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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