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Estimating the Likelihood of an Unpopular Verdict in the Electoral College

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  • Ball, William J
  • Leuthold, David A

Abstract

We use historical data to estimate the probability that a presidential candidate could win the popular vote and subsequently lose in the electoral collecge (a divided verdict). We replicate the model constructed by Merrill (1978b), and improve its robustness by replacing the normal distribution with the beta distribution, and by extending the historical time period to 1880-1984. The changes indicate greater inefficiency for the Democratic party, which was more likely to have unnecessarily large majorities in particular (Southern) states. We revise the model further to include the changes over time in electoral size and in voting patterns among the states. This dynamic model indicates that recent party realignments have decreased the probability of dividend verdicts in moderately close elections. Copyright 1991 by Kluwer Academic Publishers

Suggested Citation

  • Ball, William J & Leuthold, David A, 1991. "Estimating the Likelihood of an Unpopular Verdict in the Electoral College," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 70(2), pages 215-224, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:pubcho:v:70:y:1991:i:2:p:215-24
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Geruso & Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara, 2022. "Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836–2016," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 327-357, January.
    2. Olivier Mouzon & Thibault Laurent & Michel Breton & Dominique Lepelley, 2019. "Exploring the effects of national and regional popular vote Interstate compact on a toy symmetric version of the Electoral College: an electoral engineering perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 179(1), pages 51-95, April.
    3. Michael Geruso & Dean Spears & Ishaana Talesara, 2019. "Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016," NBER Working Papers 26247, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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