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Insurgent Learning

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Trebbi
  • Eric Weese
  • Austin L. Wright
  • Andrew Shaver

Abstract

We study a model of insurgent learning during a counterinsurgency campaign. We test empirical implications of the model using newly declassified microdata documenting improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Afghanistan from 2006 to 2014. This period was characterized by substantial US investments in anti-IED technology and equipment. We find no evidence of decreasing effectiveness of IEDs across time. Qualitative evidence suggests that this is due to innovations in IED devices and tactics. Our results are robust to numerous alternative specifications, and yield insights on a technological revolution in insurgent violence—the proliferation and evolution of IEDs—with implications for scholarship on civil conflict and future investment in tactical countermeasures.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Trebbi & Eric Weese & Austin L. Wright & Andrew Shaver, 2017. "Insurgent Learning," NBER Working Papers 23475, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23475
    Note: DEV POL
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O1 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development
    • P48 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Legal Institutions; Property Rights; Natural Resources; Energy; Environment; Regional Studies

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