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Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist

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  • Tamim Bayoumi
  • Barry Eichengreen

Abstract

Once upon a time, in the 1990s, it was widely agreed that neither Europe nor the United States was an optimum currency area, although moderating this concern was the finding that it was possible to distinguish a regional core and periphery (Bayoumi and Eichengreen, 1993). Revisiting these issues, we find that the United States is remains closer to an optimum currency area than the Euro Area. More intriguingly, the Euro Area shows striking changes in correlations and responses which we interpret as reflecting hysteresis with a financial twist, in which the financial system causes aggregate supply and demand shocks to reinforce each other. An implication is that if the Euro Area wishes to avoid financial booms and busts it will need vigorous, coordinated regulation of its banking and financial systems by a single supervisor—that monetary union without banking union will be prone to economic and financial instability.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamim Bayoumi & Barry Eichengreen, 2017. "Aftershocks of Monetary Unification: Hysteresis with a Financial Twist," NBER Working Papers 23205, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23205
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    Cited by:

    1. Bruno Albuquerque, 2019. "One Size Fits All? Monetary Policy and Asymmetric Household Debt Cycles in U.S. States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1309-1353, August.
    2. Dennis Nchor, 2020. "Labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks in Europe: evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-19, December.
    3. Augusto Cerqua & Roberta Di Stefano & Guido Pellegrini, 2023. "What kind of region reaps the benefits of a currency union?," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 552-582, June.
    4. de Haan, Jakob & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M. & Zijm, Renske, 2024. "Coherence of output gaps in the euro area: The impact of the COVID-19 shock," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    5. Eichengreen, Barry & Park, Donghyun & Shin, Kwanho, 2021. "The shape of recovery: Implications of past experience for the duration of the COVID-19 recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    6. Omid M. Ardakani & N. Kundan Kishor & Suyong Song, 2024. "Does membership of the EMU matter for economic and financial outcomes?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 42(3), pages 416-447, July.
    7. Nauro F Campos & Corrado Macchiarelli, 2020. "The United Kingdom and the stability of the Euro area: From Maastricht to Brexit," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1792-1808, July.
    8. Akira Kohsaka, 2024. "Why Does Euro’s Survival Matter? Financial Integration in East Asia and European Union," OSIPP Discussion Paper 24E001, Osaka School of International Public Policy, Osaka University.
    9. Hoffmaister, Alexander W., 2022. "Two's not company: mis-aggregation and "supply-induced" unemployment increases," MPRA Paper 115513, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Dennis Nchor, 2020. "Labour mobility as an adjustment mechanism to asymmetric shocks in Europe: evidence from the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 54(1), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Youssef EL JAI, 2020. "How Feasible Is the ECO Currency? A Study of ECOWAS Business Cycles Synchronicity," Research papers & Policy papers 1916, Policy Center for the New South.
    12. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:54:i::p:art.16 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Rathke, Alexander & Streicher, Sina & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2022. "How similar are country- and sector-responses to common shocks within the euro area?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    14. Samitas, Aristeidis & Polyzos, Stathis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2018. "Brexit and financial stability: An agent-based simulation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 181-192.
    15. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2018. "To Be or not to Be a Euro Country? The Behavioural Political Economics of Currency Unions," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1883, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    16. Kleimeier, Stefanie & Sander, Harald, 2022. "Twenty years with the Euro: Eurozone banking market integration revisited," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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