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Do Anti-Poverty Programs Sway Voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda

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  • Christopher Blattman
  • Mathilde Emeriau
  • Nathan Fiala

Abstract

A Ugandan government program allowed groups of young people to submit proposals to start skilled enterprises. Among 535 eligible proposals, the government randomly selected 265 to receive grants of nearly $400 per person. Blattman et al. (2014) showed that, after four years, the program raised employment by 17% and earnings 38%. This paper shows that, rather than rewarding the government in elections, beneficiaries increased opposition party membership, campaigning, and voting. Higher incomes are associated with opposition support, and we hypothesize that financial independence frees the poor to express political preferences publicly, being less reliant on patronage and other political transfers.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Blattman & Mathilde Emeriau & Nathan Fiala, 2017. "Do Anti-Poverty Programs Sway Voters? Experimental Evidence from Uganda," NBER Working Papers 23035, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee, 2013. "Microcredit Under the Microscope: What Have We Learned in the Past Two Decades, and What Do We Need to Know?," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 487-519, May.
    2. Baez, Javier E. & Camacho, Adriana & Conover, Emily & Zarate, Roman Andres, 2012. "Conditional Cash Transfers, Political Participation, and Voting Behavior," IZA Discussion Papers 6870, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
    4. Keele, Luke & Tingley, Dustin & Teppei Yamamoto, "undated". "Identifying Mechanisms behind Policy Interventions via Causal Mediation Analysis," Working Paper 135661, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    5. Kosuke Imai & Gary King & Carlos Velasco Rivera, 2016. "Do Nonpartisan Programmatic Policies Have Partisan Electoral Effects? Evidence from Two Large Scale Randomized Experiments," Working Paper 366526, Harvard University OpenScholar.
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Elections and development #NeverLetAGoodDeedGoUnpunished
      by Nicholas Gruen in Club Troppo on 2017-01-18 10:39:24

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gustavo J. Bobonis & Paul J. Gertler & Marco Gonzalez-Navarro & Simeon Nichter, 2022. "Vulnerability and Clientelism," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(11), pages 3627-3659, November.
    2. Pinto, Thiago L.S. & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda & Cajueiro, Daniel O., 2023. "How politics can influence the allocation of social program benefits: A case study of the Brazilian poverty reduction program Bolsa Família," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 77-89.
    3. Margherita Calderone, 2017. "Are there different spillover effects from cash transfers to men and women?: Impacts on investments in education in post-war Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2017-93, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Duchoslav, Jan & Kenamu, Edwin & Thunde, Jack, 2023. "Targeting hunger or votes? The political economy of humanitarian transfers in Malawi," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    5. Christopher Blattman & Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, 2018. "The Long Term Impacts of Grants on Poverty: 9-year Evidence From Uganda's Youth Opportunities Program," NBER Working Papers 24999, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. G. Andersen, Asbjørn & Franklin, Simon & Getahun, Tigabu & Kotsadam, Andreas & Somville, Vincent & Villanger, Espen, 2023. "Does wealth reduce support for redistribution? Evidence from an Ethiopian housing lottery," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    7. Lewis, Blane D. & Nguyen, Hieu T.M. & Hendrawan, Adrianus, 2020. "Political accountability and public service delivery in decentralized Indonesia: Incumbency advantage and the performance of second term mayors," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    8. Blattman, Chris & Fiala, Nathan & Martinez, Sebastian, 2019. "The long term impacts of grants on poverty: 9-year evidence from Uganda’s Youth Opportunities Program," SocArXiv vctuh, Center for Open Science.
    9. Shruthi Mohan Menon & Gerard Rassendren, 2022. "Analysis of determinants of voter turnout in Indian states for election years 1991–2019," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 24(1), pages 30-45, June.
    10. Margherita Calderone, 2017. "Are there different spillover effects from cash transfers to men and women? Impacts on investments in education in post-war Uganda," WIDER Working Paper Series 093, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Amal Ahmad, 2024. "Transfers and the rise of Hindu nationalism in India," Discussion Papers 2024-08, Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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