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A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy

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Abstract

This paper documents the structure and key properties of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy. It is a three-good, small open economy model, which features a well-developed production block. This production block has been estimated as a system using Full Information Maximum Likelihood. Another key feature of the model is that it has a two–tiered structure: the steady-state version of the model and the dynamic version of the model. Using the steady-state version of the model, a macroeconomic balance measure of New Zealand’s equilibrium exchange rate can be derived. Furthermore, the steady–state model provides estimates of potential output, which is used to measure the level of excess demand in the economy. The dynamic model is used to trace the dynamic response of a range of macroeconomic variables to various shocks such as changes to world prices for exports and changes to government policy.

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  • Kam Leong Szeto, 2002. "A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the New Zealand economy," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/07, New Zealand Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:nzt:nztwps:02/07
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    File URL: https://treasury.govt.nz/sites/default/files/2007-09/twp02-07.pdf
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    5. Graeme Wells & Lewis Evans, 1985. "The Impact of Traded Goods Prices on the New Zealand Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 61(1), pages 421-435, March.
    6. repec:bla:econom:v:56:y:1989:i:223:p:343-57 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Kam Leong Szeto, 2001. "An Econometric Analysis of a Production Function for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 01/31, New Zealand Treasury.
    8. repec:bla:ecorec:v:61:y:1985:i:172:p:421-35 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-295, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oktaviani, Rina & Amaliah, Syarifah & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Sulser, Timothy B., 2011. "The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy:," IFPRI discussion papers 1148, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Hofer Helmut & Weyerstraß Klaus & Schmidt Torsten, 2011. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 231(1), pages 153-171, February.
    3. Renee Philip & John Janssen, 2002. "Indicators of Fiscal Impulse for New Zealand," Treasury Working Paper Series 02/30, New Zealand Treasury.
    4. Kunhong Kim & Iris Claus, 2004. "Agency costs and asymmetric information in a small open economy: a dynamic general equilibrium model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 787, Econometric Society.
    5. Iris Claus & Arthur Grimes, 2003. "Asymmetric Information, Financial Intermediation and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism: A Critical Review," Treasury Working Paper Series 03/19, New Zealand Treasury.
    6. Torsten Schmidt & Helmut Hofer & Klaus Weyerstrass, 2010. "Practice and Prospects of Medium-term Economic Forecasting," Ruhr Economic Papers 0177, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    7. Barabas, György & Gebhardt, Heinz & Münch, Heinz Josef & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Breitung, Jörg, 2005. "Methoden mittelfristiger gesamtwirtschaftlicher Projektionen: Dienstleistungsvorhaben im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums für Wirtschaft und Arbeit, Projektnummer 02/05. Vorläufiger Endbericht," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 69948, March.
    8. Hodges, Cedric & Wiskich, Tony, 2016. "Are we there yet? Adjustment paths in response to Tariff shocks: a CGE Analysis," Conference papers 330171, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Jan Hagemejer & Tomasz Jedrzejowicz & Zbigniew Zolkiewski, 2011. "Fiscal tightening after the crisis. A scenario analysis for Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(3), pages 33-66.
    10. Özer Karagedikli & Rishab Sethi & Christie Smith & Aaron Drew, 2008. "Changes in the transmission mechanism of monetary policy in New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/03, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    11. repec:zbw:rwirep:0177 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Maria Elena Bontempi, 2013. "The Istat MeMo-It Macroeconometric Model: comments and suggestions for possible extensions," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 47-56.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium model; Equilibrium exchange rate; potential output; Macroeconomic dynamics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production

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