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Days to Cover and Stock Returns

Author

Listed:
  • Harrison Hong
  • Weikai Li
  • Sophie X. Ni
  • Jose A. Scheinkman
  • Philip Yan

Abstract

The short ratio - shares shorted to shares outstanding - is an oft-used measure of arbitrageurs’ opinion about a stock’s over-valuation. We show that days-to-cover (DTC), which divides a stock’s short ratio by its average daily share turnover, is a more theoretically well-motivated measure because trading costs vary across stocks. Since turnover falls with trading costs, DTC is approximately the marginal cost of the shorts. At the arbitrageurs’ optimum it equals the marginal benefit, which is their opinion about over-valuation. DTC is a better predictor of poor stock returns than short ratio. A long-short strategy using DTC generates a 1.2% monthly return.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Hong & Weikai Li & Sophie X. Ni & Jose A. Scheinkman & Philip Yan, 2015. "Days to Cover and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 21166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21166
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    Cited by:

    1. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Do, Binh Huu & Gray, Philip & Manton, Tom, 2016. "Assessing the information content of short-selling metrics using daily disclosures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 188-204.
    2. Liyun Zhou & Chunpeng Yang, 2020. "Investor sentiment, investor crowded-trade behavior, and limited arbitrage in the cross section of stock returns," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 437-460, July.
    3. Ravi Kashyap, 2019. "Concepts, Components and Collections of Trading Strategies and Market Color," Papers 1910.02144, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    4. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    5. Liyun Zhou & Chunpeng Yang, 2019. "Differences in the effects of seller-initiated versus buyer-initiated crowded trades in stock markets," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 859-890, December.
    6. Chen, Jing & Chen, Bintong & Li, Wei, 2018. "Who should be pricing leader in the presence of customer returns?," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 265(2), pages 735-747.
    7. Blau, Benjamin M. & Cox, Justin S. & Griffith, Todd G. & Voges, Ryan, 2023. "Daily short selling around reverse stock splits," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    8. Zhou, Liyun & Yang, Chunpeng, 2019. "Stochastic investor sentiment, crowdedness and deviation of asset prices from fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 130-140.
    9. Jia, Yuecheng & Simkins, Betty & Feng, Hongrui, 2023. "Political connections and short sellers," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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