IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v34y2010i10p2403-2412.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Short-sale inflow and stock returns: Evidence from Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Takahashi, Hidetomo

Abstract

Using a 10-year panel of flow-based information on stock borrowings and constructing a flow-based measure for shorting demand, I examine the relation between shorting demand and subsequent stock price movements. I find that the least heavily shorted stocks tend to outperform the most heavily shorted stocks and that this outperformance persists up to three months. In addition, using proxies for information asymmetry derived from the market microstructure literature, I find that this outperformance is not confined to stocks with high information asymmetry. These empirical findings indicate that short sellers act not only as informed investors who gain negative news but also as skillful investors who detect stock price deviations from fundamental values.

Suggested Citation

  • Takahashi, Hidetomo, 2010. "Short-sale inflow and stock returns: Evidence from Japan," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 2403-2412, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:2403-2412
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(10)00099-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karl B. Diether & Kuan-Hui Lee & Ingrid M. Werner, 2009. "Short-Sale Strategies and Return Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(2), pages 575-607, February.
    2. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    3. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June.
    4. Daniel, Kent, et al, 1997. "Measuring Mutual Fund Performance with Characteristic-Based Benchmarks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1058, July.
    5. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1775-1798 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Nagel, Stefan, 2005. "Short sales, institutional investors and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 277-309, November.
    7. Lauren Cohen & Karl B. Diether & Christopher J. Malloy, 2007. "Supply and Demand Shifts in the Shorting Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(5), pages 2061-2096, October.
    8. Bauer, Rob & Cosemans, Mathijs & Eichholtz, Piet, 2009. "Option trading and individual investor performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 731-746, April.
    9. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January.
    10. Owen Lamont, 2004. "Go Down Fighting: Short Sellers vs. Firms," NBER Working Papers 10659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Jones, Charles M. & Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Short-sale constraints and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 207-239.
    12. Asquith, Paul & Pathak, Parag A. & Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Short interest, institutional ownership, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 243-276, November.
    13. George, Thomas J & Kaul, Gautam & Nimalendran, M, 1991. "Estimation of the Bid-Ask Spread and Its Components: A New Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 4(4), pages 623-656.
    14. Ekkehart Boehmer & Charles M. Jones & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2008. "Which Shorts Are Informed?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 491-527, April.
    15. Diamond, Douglas W. & Verrecchia, Robert E., 1987. "Constraints on short-selling and asset price adjustment to private information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 277-311, June.
    16. Owen A. Lamont & Jeremy C. Stein, 2004. "Aggregate Short Interest and Market Valuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 29-32, May.
    17. Ng, Lilian & Wu, Fei, 2007. "The trading behavior of institutions and individuals in Chinese equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(9), pages 2695-2710, September.
    18. Chen, Crystal Xiaobei & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2010. "Short sales and speed of price adjustment: Evidence from the Hong Kong stock market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 471-483, February.
    19. Guillermo Llorente & Roni Michaely & Gideon Saar & Jiang Wang, 2002. "Dynamic Volume-Return Relation of Individual Stocks," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1005-1047.
    20. Brent, Averil & Morse, Dale & Stice, E. Kay, 1990. "Short Interest: Explanations and Tests," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(2), pages 273-289, June.
    21. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    22. Nilsson, Roland, 2008. "The value of shorting," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 880-891, May.
    23. Chen, Li-Wen & Johnson, Shane A. & Lin, Ji-Chai & Liu, Yu-Jane, 2009. "Information, sophistication, and foreign versus domestic investors' performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(9), pages 1636-1651, September.
    24. Miller, Edward M, 1977. "Risk, Uncertainty, and Divergence of Opinion," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1151-1168, September.
    25. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    26. Terrance Odean, 1999. "Do Investors Trade Too Much?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1279-1298, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Takahashi, Hidetomo & Xu, Peng, 2016. "Trading activities of short-sellers around index deletions: Evidence from the Nikkei 225," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 132-146.
    2. Khan, Mostafa Saidur Rahim & Kato, Hideaki Kiyoshi & Bremer, Marc, 2019. "Short sales constraints and stock returns: How do the regulations fare?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    3. Khan, Mostafa Saidur Rahim & Bremer, Marc & Kato, Hideaki Kiyoshi, 2018. "Are short-sales constraints binding when there is a centralized lendable securities market? Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 85-96.
    4. Tsai, Chia-Fen & Chang, Jung-Hsien & Tsai, Feng-Tse, 2021. "Lottery preferences and retail short selling," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Lim, Bryan Y., 2011. "Short-sale constraints and price bubbles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2443-2453, September.
    6. Lee, Bong-Soo & Ko, Kwangsoo, 2014. "Are Japanese short sellers information detectives?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 89-97.
    7. Duong, Truong X. & Huszár, Zsuzsa R. & Yamada, Takeshi, 2015. "The costs and benefits of short sale disclosure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 124-139.
    8. Naoya Shiomi & Hidetomo Takahashi & Peng Xu, 2021. "Strategic short selling around index additions: Evidence from the Nikkei 225," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 1068-1077, September.
    9. Yan, Zhipeng & Cheng, Lee-Young & Zhao, Yan & Huang, Chung-Yuan, 2016. "Daily short covering activity and the weekend effect: Evidence from Taiwan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 166-184.
    10. Cao, Zhiqi & Lv, Dayong & Sun, Zhenzhen, 2021. "Stock price manipulation, short-sale constraints, and breadth-return relationship," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    11. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2014. "Short-selling, margin-trading, and price efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 411-424.
    12. Frino, Alex & Lecce, Steven & Lepone, Andrew, 2011. "Short-sales constraints and market quality: Evidence from the 2008 short-sales bans," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 225-236, August.
    13. Autore, Don M. & Billingsley, Randall S. & Kovacs, Tunde, 2011. "The 2008 short sale ban: Liquidity, dispersion of opinion, and the cross-section of returns of US financial stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2252-2266, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanauer, Matthias X. & Lesnevski, Pavel & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2023. "Surprise in short interest," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Jank, Stephan & Roling, Christoph & Smajlbegovic, Esad, 2021. "Flying under the radar: The effects of short-sale disclosure rules on investor behavior and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(1), pages 209-233.
    3. Autore, Don M. & Billingsley, Randall S. & Kovacs, Tunde, 2011. "The 2008 short sale ban: Liquidity, dispersion of opinion, and the cross-section of returns of US financial stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2252-2266, September.
    4. Blau, Benjamin M. & Van Ness, Robert A. & Warr, Richard S., 2012. "Short selling of ADRs and foreign market short-sale constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 886-897.
    5. Itamar Drechsler & Qingyi Freda Drechsler, 2014. "The Shorting Premium and Asset Pricing Anomalies," NBER Working Papers 20282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Melissa Porras Prado & Pedro A. C. Saffi & Jason Sturgess, 2016. "Ownership Structure, Limits to Arbitrage, and Stock Returns: Evidence from Equity Lending Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(12), pages 3211-3244.
    7. Kelley Bergsma & Jitendra Tayal, 2019. "Short Interest and Lottery Stocks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 48(1), pages 187-227, March.
    8. repec:oup:revfin:v:29:y:2016:i:12:p:3211-3244. is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Au, Andrea S. & Doukas, John A. & Onayev, Zhan, 2009. "Daily short interest, idiosyncratic risk, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 290-316, May.
    10. Shyu, Yih-Wen & Chan, Kam C. & Liang, Hsin-Yu, 2018. "Spillovers of price efficiency and informed trading from short sales to margin purchases in absence of uptick rule," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 163-183.
    11. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    12. Antonio Gargano & Juan Sotes-Paladino & Patrick Verwijmeren, 2022. "Out of Sync: Dispersed Short Selling and the Correction of Mispricing," Working Papers 108, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    13. Khan, Mostafa Saidur Rahim & Bremer, Marc & Kato, Hideaki Kiyoshi, 2018. "Are short-sales constraints binding when there is a centralized lendable securities market? Evidence from Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 85-96.
    14. Harrison Hong & Weikai Li & Sophie X. Ni & Jose A. Scheinkman & Philip Yan, 2015. "Days to Cover and Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 21166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Boehmer, Ekkehart & Huszar, Zsuzsa R. & Jordan, Bradford D., 2010. "The good news in short interest," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 80-97, April.
    16. Boulton, Thomas J. & Braga-Alves, Marcus V., 2010. "The skinny on the 2008 naked short-sale restrictions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 397-421, November.
    17. Phillips, Blake, 2011. "Options, short-sale constraints and market efficiency: A new perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 430-442, February.
    18. Jiang, Hao & Sun, Zheng, 2014. "Dispersion in beliefs among active mutual funds and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 341-365.
    19. Blau, Benjamin M. & Smith, Jason M., 2014. "Autocorrelation in daily short-sale volume," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 31-41.
    20. Andreou, Panayiotis C. & Kagkadis, Anastasios & Philip, Dennis & Tuneshev, Ruslan, 2018. "Differences in options investors’ expectations and the cross-section of stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 315-336.
    21. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Jones, Charles M. & Putniņš, Tālis J., 2016. "Shorting at close range: A tale of two types," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 546-568.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:34:y:2010:i:10:p:2403-2412. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.