IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/19811.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Risk, Insurance and Wages in General Equilibrium

Author

Listed:
  • Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak
  • Mark Rosenzweig

Abstract

We estimate the general-equilibrium labor market effects of a large-scale randomized intervention in which we designed and marketed a rainfall index insurance product across three states in India. Marketing agricultural insurance to both cultivators and to agricultural wage laborers allows us to test a general-equilibrium model of wage determination in settings where households supplying labor and households hiring labor face weather risk. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that both labor demand and equilibrium wages become more rainfall sensitive when cultivators are offered rainfall insurance, because insurance induces cultivators to switch to riskier, higher-yield production methods. The same insurance contract offered to agricultural laborers smoothes wages across rainfall states by inducing changes in labor supply. Policy simulations based on our estimates suggest that selling insurance only to land-owning cultivators and precluding the landless from the insurance market (which is the current regulatory practice in India and other developing countries), makes wage laborers worse off relative to a situation where insurance does not exist at all.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Mark Rosenzweig, 2014. "Risk, Insurance and Wages in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 19811, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19811
    Note: DEV
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w19811.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kremer, Michael Robert & Miguel, Edward A., 2004. "The Illusion of Sustainability," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt94p8w1d7, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. repec:cep:stieop:43 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Abhijit V. Banerjee & Shawn Cole & Esther Duflo & Leigh Linden, 2007. "Remedying Education: Evidence from Two Randomized Experiments in India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1235-1264.
    4. Bryan, Gharad & Chowdhury, Shyamal & Mubarak, Ahmed Mushfig, 2013. "Escaping Famine through Seasonal Migration," Working Papers 124, Yale University, Department of Economics.
    5. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-00840901 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Dean Karlan & Robert Osei & Isaac Osei-Akoto & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Agricultural Decisions after Relaxing Credit and Risk Constraints," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 597-652.
    7. Bruno Crépon & Esther Duflo & Marc Gurgand & Roland Rathelot & Philippe Zamora, 2013. "Do Labor Market Policies have Displacement Effects? Evidence from a Clustered Randomized Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(2), pages 531-580.
    8. Emily Oster & Rebecca Thornton, 2009. "Determinants of Technology Adoption: Private Value and Peer Effects in Menstrual Cup Take-Up," NBER Working Papers 14828, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Emily Oster & Rebecca Thornton, 2012. "Determinants Of Technology Adoption: Peer Effects In Menstrual Cup Take-Up," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(6), pages 1263-1293, December.
    10. Michael Kremer & Edward Miguel, 2007. "The Illusion of Sustainability," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 1007-1065.
    11. Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Mark R. Rosenzweig, 2013. "Informal Risk Sharing, Index Insurance, and Risk Taking in Developing Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(3), pages 375-380, May.
    12. Manuela Angelucci & Giacomo De Giorgi, 2009. "Indirect Effects of an Aid Program: How Do Cash Transfers Affect Ineligibles' Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(1), pages 486-508, March.
    13. Jing Cai & Alain De Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2015. "Social Networks and the Decision to Insure," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 81-108, April.
    14. James J. Heckman, 1991. "Randomization and Social Policy Evaluation Revisited," NBER Technical Working Papers 0107, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Daron Acemoglu, 2010. "Theory, General Equilibrium, and Political Economy in Development Economics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 24(3), pages 17-32, Summer.
    16. S. Viswanathan & Adriano Rampini, 2013. "Household risk management," 2013 Meeting Papers 647, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Seema Jayachandran, 2006. "Selling Labor Low: Wage Responses to Productivity Shocks in Developing Countries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(3), pages 538-575, June.
    18. Oriana Bandiera & Robin Burgess & Narayan Das & Selim Gulesci & Imran Rasul & Munshi Sulaiman, 2013. "Can Basic Entrepreneurship Transform the Economic Lives of the Poor?," STICERD - Economic Organisation and Public Policy Discussion Papers Series 043, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
    19. Jenny C. Aker, 2010. "Information from Markets Near and Far: Mobile Phones and Agricultural Markets in Niger," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 46-59, July.
    20. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, January.
    21. Hongbin Cai & Yuyu Chen & Hanming Fang & Li-An Zhou, 2009. "Microinsurance, Trust and Economic Development: Evidence from a Randomized Natural Field Experiment," PIER Working Paper Archive 09-034, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    22. Robert Jensen, 2007. "The Digital Provide: Information (Technology), Market Performance, and Welfare in the South Indian Fisheries Sector," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 122(3), pages 879-924.
    23. Abhijit Banerjee & Esther Duflo & Rachel Glennerster & Cynthia Kinnan, 2015. "The Miracle of Microfinance? Evidence from a Randomized Evaluation," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 22-53, January.
    24. Shawn Cole & Xavier Gine & Jeremy Tobacman & Petia Topalova & Robert Townsend & James Vickery, 2013. "Barriers to Household Risk Management: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 104-135, January.
    25. Robert Jensen, 2000. "Agricultural Volatility and Investments in Children," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 399-404, May.
    26. Karthik Muralidharan & Venkatesh Sundararaman, 2013. "The Aggregate Effect of School Choice: Evidence from a Two-stage Experiment in India," NBER Working Papers 19441, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Christopher Blattman & Nathan Fiala & Sebastian Martinez, 2014. "Generating Skilled Self-Employment in Developing Countries: Experimental Evidence from Uganda," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(2), pages 697-752.
    28. Rosenzweig, Mark R, 1978. "Rural Wages, Labor Supply, and Land Reform: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(5), pages 847-861, December.
    29. Sommarat Chantarat & Andrew G. Mude & Christopher B. Barrett & Michael R. Carter, 2013. "Designing Index-Based Livestock Insurance for Managing Asset Risk in Northern Kenya," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 205-237, March.
    30. Dipak Mazumdar, 1959. "The Marginal Productivity Theory of Wages and Disguised Unemployment," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 26(3), pages 190-197.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michael R. CARTER & Alain de JANVRY & Elisabeth SADOULET & Alexandros SARRIS, 2014. "Index-based weather insurance for developing countries: A review of evidence and a set of propositions for up-scaling," Working Papers P111, FERDI.
    2. Daniel LaFave & Duncan Thomas, 2016. "Farms, Families, and Markets: New Evidence on Completeness of Markets in Agricultural Settings," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 1917-1960, September.
    3. Emily Breza & Cynthia Kinnan, 2021. "Measuring the Equilibrium Impacts of Credit: Evidence from the Indian Microfinance Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 136(3), pages 1447-1497.
    4. Alain de Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2019. "Transforming developing country agriculture: Removing adoption constraints and promoting inclusive value chain development," Working Papers hal-02287668, HAL.
    5. Unal Seven & Semih Tumen, 2020. "Agricultural Credits And Agricultural Productivity: Cross-Country Evidence," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(supp01), pages 161-183, December.
    6. Chaoran Chen & Diego Restuccia & Raul Santaeulalia-Llopis, 2022. "The Effects of Land Markets on Resource Allocation and Agricultural Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 41-54, July.
    7. Dinkelman, Taryn & Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, 2015. "Migration, congestion externalities, and the evaluation of spatial investments," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 189-202.
    8. de Janvry, Alain & Sadoulet, Elisabeth, 2020. "Using agriculture for development: Supply- and demand-side approaches," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    9. Veronika Bertram-Huemmer & Kati Kraehnert, 2018. "Does Index Insurance Help Households Recover from Disaster? Evidence from IBLI Mongolia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 100(1), pages 145-171.
    10. John, Felix & Toth, Russell & Frank, Karin & Groeneveld, Jürgen & Müller, Birgit, 2019. "Ecological Vulnerability Through Insurance? Potential Unintended Consequences of Livestock Drought Insurance," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 357-368.
    11. Joshua D Merfeld, 2020. "Moving Up or Just Surviving? Nonfarm Self‐Employment in India," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 102(1), pages 32-53, January.
    12. Kate Ambler & Alan de Brauw & Susan Godlonton, 2018. "Rural Labor Market Responses to Large Lumpy Cash Transfers: Evidence from Malawi," Department of Economics Working Papers 2018-11, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    13. Dong, Jing & Xu, Wanyu & Cha, Jun, 2021. "Rural entrepreneurship and job creation: the hybrid identity of village-cadre-entrepreneurs," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Serfilippi, Elena & Carter, Michael & Guirkinger, Catherine, 2020. "Insurance contracts when individuals “greatly value” certainty: Results from a field experiment in Burkina Faso," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 180(C), pages 731-743.
    15. Fink, Günther & Jack, Kelsey & Masiye, Felix, 2014. "Seasonal Credit Constraints and Agricultural Labor Supply: Evidence from Zambia," IZA Discussion Papers 8657, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    16. Alice Bonou & Markus Olapade & Alessandra Garbero & Leonard Wantchekon, 2023. "Evaluation of the Effects of Introducing Risk Management Tools in Agricultural Development: The Case of PADAER Senegal," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(5), pages 1-15, April.
    17. Mark R. Rosenzweig & Christopher Udry, 2014. "Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(5), pages 278-283, May.
    18. Wyatt Brooks & Kevin Donovan, 2020. "Eliminating Uncertainty in Market Access: The Impact of New Bridges in Rural Nicaragua," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(5), pages 1965-1997, September.
    19. Carter, Michael R. & Cheng, Lan & Sarris, Alexandros, 2016. "Where and how index insurance can boost the adoption of improved agricultural technologies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 59-71.
    20. Jonathan Colmer, 2021. "Temperature, Labor Reallocation, and Industrial Production: Evidence from India," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 101-124, October.
    21. Colmer, Jonathan, 2018. "Weather, labor reallocation and industrial production: evidence from India," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88695, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jing Cai & Alain De Janvry & Elisabeth Sadoulet, 2015. "Social Networks and the Decision to Insure," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(2), pages 81-108, April.
    2. BenYishay, Ariel & Mobarak, A. Mushfiq, 2013. "Communicating with Farmers through Social Networks," Center Discussion Papers 156233, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
    3. Agha Ali Akram & Shyamal Chowdhury & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak, 2017. "Effects of Emigration on Rural Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Rafael P. Ribas, 2014. "Liquidity Constraints, Informal Financing, and Entrepreneurship: Direct and Indirect Effects of a Cash Transfer Programme," Working Papers 131, International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth.
    5. Rafael P. Ribas, 2020. "Liquidity constraints, spillovers, and entrepreneurship: evidence from a cash transfer program," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 55(4), pages 1131-1158, December.
    6. Heitzig, Chris & O’Keeffe-O’Donovan, Rossa, 2024. "Spillover Effects and Diffusion of Savings Groups," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    7. Karthik Muralidharan & Paul Niehaus, 2017. "Experimentation at Scale," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 31(4), pages 103-124, Fall.
    8. Sakketa, Tekalign G. & Kornher, Lukas, 2021. "Unintended Consequences or a Glimmer of Hope? Comparative Impact Analysis of Cash Transfers and Index Insurance on Pastoralists’ Labor Allocation Decisions," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315113, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    9. Prasann, Ashesh, 2015. "The Spillover Effects of Public Works on Migration, Labor Allocation and Wages: Evidence from National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, India," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205750, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Eduard Marinov, 2019. "The 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics," Economic Thought journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 6, pages 78-116.
    11. Ariel BenYishay & A. Mushfiq Mobarak, 2014. "Social Learning and Communication," NBER Working Papers 20139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Baylis, Kathy & Ham, Andres, 2015. "How important is spatial correlation in randomized controlled trials?," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205586, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Bonan, Jacopo & Battiston, Pietro & Bleck, Jaimie & LeMay-Boucher, Philippe & Pareglio, Stefano & Sarr, Bassirou & Tavoni, Massimo, 2021. "Social interaction and technology adoption: Experimental evidence from improved cookstoves in Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    14. Takahashi, Kazushi & Ikegami, Munenobu & Sheahan, Megan & Barrett, Christopher B., 2014. "Quasi-experimental evidence on the drivers of index-based livestock insurance demand in Southern Ethiopia," IDE Discussion Papers 480, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    15. Shawn Cole & Xavier Giné & James Vickery, 2017. "How Does Risk Management Influence Production Decisions? Evidence from a Field Experiment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1935-1970.
    16. Babcock, Philip & Bedard, Kelly & Fischer, Stefanie & Hartman, John, 2020. "Coordination and contagion: Individual connections and peer mechanisms in a randomized field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    17. Francisco J. Buera & Joseph P. Kaboski & Yongseok Shin, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and Financial Frictions: A Macrodevelopment Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 409-436, August.
    18. Powell-Jackson, Timothy & Ansah, Evelyn K., 2015. "The indirect effects of subsidised healthcare in rural Ghana," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 96-103.
    19. Jing Cai, 2016. "The Impact of Insurance Provision on Household Production and Financial Decisions," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 8(2), pages 44-88, May.
    20. Songsermsawas, Tisorn & Baylis, Kathy & Chhatre, Ashwini & Michelson, Hope, 2016. "Can Peers Improve Agricultural Revenue?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 163-178.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • J2 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19811. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.